David Coletto: The Precarity Mindset and the 2025 Election

In this episode of The Missing Middle, hosts Sabrina Maddeaux and Michael Moffatt discuss the housing platforms of Canada's major federal parties as they approach the April 28 election. They analyze the promises made by the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP regarding housing starts, affordability, and the implications of these policies on young Canadians. The conversation delves into the commonalities and differences in party platforms, the impact of municipal incentives and rent control, and critiques of the math behind the promises. They also explore the sociological implications of housing policies and the relationship between immigration and housing supply.Chapters00:00 Introduction01:29 Examining the housing start pledges03:53 Housing platform commonalities04:39 Municipal incentives06:55 NDP’s rent control promise examined10:47 Eliminating the GST on New Housing13:27 Math is hard for both Liberals and Conservatives and the PBO20:33 Not particularly bold housing ideas24:14 Immigration targets and housingLinks:Liberal PlatformConservative PlatformNDP PlatformHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this conversation, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt are joined by co-host of the Prof G Markets podcast with Scott Galloway, and host the First Time Founders podcast Ed Elson to discuss the economic challenges faced by Gen Z, including their financial struggles, housing affordability, and the rising costs of education. Ed highlights the generational wealth gap, the impact of debt, and the political engagement of Gen Z, emphasizing the need for action beyond social media advocacy. Together they delve into the disconnect between wealth and economic outcomes, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and taxation on different socioeconomic classes. They discuss the need for wealth redistribution through new tax policies and the challenges faced by younger generations in navigating financial landscapes. The conversation also touches on the importance of civic engagement and voting, as well as the growing epidemic of loneliness in society. Chapters:00:00 Introduction01:49 Understanding Gen Z's economic struggles06:22 Comparative analysis of the US, UK, and Canada08:34 Factoring in the housing affordability crisis13:29 The debt dilemma: Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)17:26 The rising cost of education in America21:35 Gen Z's political engagement and activism25:17 Tariffs, stocks, assets and wealth inequality27:38 Taxation and wealth redistribution31:23 The disconnect between wealth and economic outcomes34:08 Investing in stocks and not in crypto38:04 Seeing an opportunity in A.I.41:44 The power of voting and civic engagement44:33 Addressing loneliness and societal trends46:36 The time to turn it around is nowResearch/Links:Can Homes Become Affordable Without Prices Going Down?Trade War Chaos Drives Massive Volatility — ft. Gary Stevenson | Prof G MarketsWhy Tariffs Could Crush Canada’s Economy — ft. Mike Moffatt | Prof G MarketsAverage Age Stat of a Home Buyer in America:AI vs. Gen Z: The Hiring War Has BegunExtended Cut: A$AP Rocky Gets Smoooth | KlarnaThe whole E.S.G. thingGuest:Ed Elson https://x.com/edels0nhttps://podcasts.voxmedia.com/host/ed-elsonHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode, conservative pundit Sabrina and economist Mike Moffatt speak with David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, to explore the evolving landscape of Canadian election polling. They discuss the impact of recent policy changes, particularly the carbon tax, on voter sentiment and the shifting dynamics of affordability issues. The conversation delves into the trends among young voters, particularly young men, and the gender dynamics influencing voting behavior. The discussion also highlights the scarcity mindset surrounding housing and the rising favorability of Mark Carney as a political figure. Chapters00:00 Introduction, David Coletto01:12 Who gets credit for axing the tax?04:34 What happened to the affordability issue?07:20 Young voters, trends and influences11:41 Gender dynamics in voting behavior13:25 Scarcity mindset and housing concerns16:11 Rise of Liberals or collapse of the NDP?17:28 Canadian national unity18:50 Mark Carney's rising favorability22:02 Expectations and the bandwagon effect24:17 Reflections on a pivotal electionThree numbers tell the story of the election this week, and none of them looks good for PoilievreWhy Are Young Men Shifting Right? A Trend I’ve Been Tracking for a While"Carbon Tax Carney" gets the credit for axing the tax‘It’s not over’: Two pollsters explain how Mark Carney pulled ahead — and why he shouldn’t get too comfortableAbacus Data Poll: Liberals lead by 4PolymarketGuest:David Colettohttps://abacusdata.ca/team/david-coletto/https://davidcoletto.substack.com/Hosts: Sabrina Maddeaux https://x.com/SabrinaMaddeaux Mike Moffatt https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt https://bsky.app/profile/mikepmoffatt.bsky.socialProducer: Meredith Martin https://twitter.com/meredithmartin https://bsky.app/profile/meredithmartin.bsky.social, https://www.linkedin.com/in/meredith-martin-21108165/This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/Brought to you by the Missing Middle Initiative https://www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode, conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist mike Moffatt sit down with housing advocate Eric Lombardi to discuss the epic shortcomings of the community consultation processes in Toronto. Lombardi argues that they often fail to represent the diverse voices and interests of the community. He emphasizes the need for a more proactive approach to community engagement that considers the broader needs of neighborhoods rather than reacting to individual developments. The conversation also touches on the implications of property rights, the role of advocacy groups, and the responsibilities of provincial and federal governments in addressing the housing crisis. Lombardi calls for reforms that would streamline the consultation process and make it more democratic, ultimately advocating for a system that empowers citizens and promotes growth.Chapters00:00 Introduction 01:16 Community consultation 05:30 Flaws with the current consultation processes09:21 The anti-democratic nature of current consultations11:23 Consultation as indirect political corruption13:30  The role of community advocacy14:58 The Tindale example17:20 Property rights and freedoms vs stagnation21:17 Reforming the consultation process23:44 Pitching Doug Ford - the province should set the standard29:07 Provincial responsibilities in housing policy31:59 Development changes - Mike’s favourite topic33:01 Federal housing policy and political capitalResearch and linksMore NeighboursTrevor Tombe: The ‘Great Canadian Slump’ is backGrowth comes to an urban backwaterPlain English with Derek ThompsonAbundance! With Ezra KleinHow Elevator Rules Cost Us Homes: An Interview with Market UrbanismSome examples of public consultations in the news:Vancouver’s public consultation process is being abused, critics sayWhy blanket rezoning has become Calgary's biggest housing controversyJudge sides with city in ruling to uphold blanket rezoning'Neighbourhoods are going to change' — Angry reactions as Windsor speeds up home buildsGuest: Eric Lombardi, https://x.com/EricDLombardiHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode, Sabrina Maddeaux and Michael Moffatt discuss the critical intersection of the housing crisis and national security in Canada. They explore how the inability to afford housing not only affects individuals but also poses systemic risks to the Canadian economy and society. The conversation delves into the implications of economic vulnerability, the talent exodus to the U.S., and the growing disconnection among younger generations. They emphasize the urgent need for a cohesive housing policy that addresses these interconnected issues to ensure a stable and resilient future for Canada. (This episode was recorded on Friday March 28th before the Liberals dropped their housing platform.)Chapters00:00 Introduction01:00A hidden national security threat04:13 High rents are an internal trade barrier07:08 Talent exodus and economic resilience12:14 Disconnection and generational frustration14:31 World happiness index data doesn't bode well for Canada19:29 Path forward: housing as a national priority22:15 Sabrina points out we have an episode regarding our last episode on immigration and housing 21:41 A few policy ideas and a call to actionLinks for reference:Young people who can’t afford homes feel betrayed by their country. Why should they stand up against Trump when Canada has let them down?Canada drops to 18th in 2025 World Happiness Report rank, among the 'largest losers'Managers Have Won the War on Remote Work. But Where Does Everyone Sit?Who Will Swing The Hammer?Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this conversation Conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist Mike Moffatt delve into the recent changes in Canada's immigration policies and their implications for the housing market and population growth. Sabrina and Mike discuss the significant reduction in immigration targets, the impact on housing prices and rents, and the skepticism surrounding the government's ability to meet these new targets. They also explore the methodologies used by various levels of government to determine housing needs and the political ramifications of adjusting housing targets in response to changing population dynamics.Chapters00:00 Introduction01:18 Changes to Canada’s immigration policy03:30 Impact on the housing market and rents05:16 Skepticism towards immigration targets07:15 What if some migrants refuse to leave?09:25 Is Ontario giving up on its housing targets?12:00 How does Mike Moffatt’s forecasting work?13:13 Should housing targets go down?15:50 Revising the housing targets 17:37 Political risks to backing of home building targetsLinks:Canada Needs to Build 3 Million Homes in 10 Years to Solve the Housing Crisis'Highly unlikely': Trudeau's immigration plan hinges on millions of people leavingBaby Needs a New Home: Projecting Ontario’s Growing Number of Families and their Housing NeedsHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this conversation, conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist Mike Moffatt discuss the evolving landscape of political polling with David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data. They explore the significant shifts in voter sentiment influenced by key events such as Justin Trudeau's exit, Mark Carney's rise, and the impact of Donald Trump. The discussion delves into demographic changes, the emergence of a precarity mindset among voters, and the implications for the Liberal Party and the NDP. The conversation also touches on regional dynamics, particularly in Quebec, and the challenges of predicting voter turnout in the upcoming federal election.00:00 Introduction01:24 Shifting Political Landscape in Canada04:08 Is this temporary or permanent?05:13 The demographic shift in people’s attitudes towards the Liberals06:52 Understanding the precarity mindset09:40 Why Mark Carney has an advantage12:19 The collapse of the NDP vote?15:50 How do projection models work?17:51 The incumbency factor20:33 Regional dynamics in the Quebec factor23:20 Undecided voters and voter turnout25:05 Election call predictions26:36 Remembering Gordon BrownLinks"Ok, Boomer" - Why Baby Boomers might be the Liberal Party's savioursGordon BrownHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode, conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist Mike Moffatt explore the growing wage gap between American and Canadian workers, discussing the implications for young Canadians and the factors contributing to this disparity. They delve into the data on emigration, the impact of housing costs, and the need for policy changes to boost productivity and wages in Canada. The conversation also touches on the potential for brain drain and the importance of attracting talent to maintain economic growth. (Full transparency, we recorded this episode before the most recent round of Trump tariffs were imposed on Canada. The content would not have changed in any way although the tone of the discussion around tariffs, emigration and the demographics of Canadian patriotism may have been expressed more emphatically if we had recorded it this week.)Chapters00:00 Introduction01:51 Have you ever lived in the USA?02:54 How many Canadians move to the US every year?06:05 Understanding the wage gap: Canada vs. USA08:17 Yes Canada should be concerned about the gap 09:15 The productivity gap10:39 Is the cost of living a factor?12:50 The role of remote work13:35 Mike is a two handed economist 15:20 Sabrina is worried about losing talent to theUS17:25 Increasing productivity and future solutions 20:02 Addressing the Brain Drain and Future SolutionsLinks:Median wages and salaries lower in every Canadian province than in every U.S. stateIn 2005, There Were 41 Communities Where a Middle-Class Family Could Afford to Buy a Home. Today, There's Only NineCHIPS and Science ActHere’s how Canadian tech salaries compare to the U.S.As a Canadian, you are earning far less than your American counterpartCanada is getting poorer when compared to its wealthy peers, data showsThe Economic Mistake the Left Is Finally ConfrontingHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode of The Missing Middle, hosts Sabrina Maddeaux and Michael Moffatt discuss the recent announcement of a high-speed rail project in Canada with transit expert Reece Martin. They explore the details of the proposed rail line, the political motivations behind it, and the challenges Canada faces in implementing effective transit solutions compared to other countries. The conversation highlights the need for a shift in approach to infrastructure projects, emphasizing the importance of political will, investment, and learning from international best practices.Chapters00:00 Introduction01:16 High-speed rail announcement outlined02:31Why doesn't the route go further south?04:20 Canada studies high-speed rail a lot06:49 Why is Europe so much better at rail?08:50 Comparing Canada’s ability to build HSR to other countries11:13 Why is it so much more expensive to build in Canada?13:34 Reese becomes Canada’s HSR Czar16:05 A vision for high-speed rail in Canada18:20 Examining the California rail debacle21:00 How do you convince drivers that rail is good for everyone?24:20 Reese’s analysis of the Canada’s political landscapeLinks:Reese Martin on the Missing MiddleHigh-speed rail line with 300 km/h trains will run between Toronto and Quebec City, Trudeau announcesHigh Speed Rail CanadaEglinton Crosstown will open no earlier than mid-2025, TTC chair saysCalifornia watchdog says high-speed rail on track to blow more deadlinesWhy Passenger Trains Suck in Canada - VIA RailNorth America Will Never Be the Netherlands - Interview with Not Just BikesGuest:Reece Martin https://reecemartin.ca/about/https://www.youtube.com/@RMTransitHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this conversation, conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux, economist Mike Moffatt and producer Meredith Martin discuss the Ontario election, focusing on predictions regarding Doug Ford's (potential) majority win and the lack of competition from opposition parties. They delve into the housing crisis, exploring why it hasn't resonated with voters and the barriers preventing Millennials from engaging in politics. The discussion highlights the impact of economic challenges on political participation and the need for addressing housing issues to foster broader political engagement.Chapters00:00 Introduction00:51 Ontario Election Predictions02:06 Why the housing crisis isn’t resonating with voters05:23 Millennial political participation09:25 High rent as a barrier to political engagement 10:01 Political salaries aren’t rising with inflation Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.