Is the yield curve inverted?

Our Trading League is still open! To learn more and get your chance to win up to $100,000 in prizes, visit realvision.com/your-futureMikkel Rosenvold, head of geopolitics at Steno Research, is flying solo on this week's Macro Mondays to discuss the impacts of both the U.S. midterm elections and the Abu Dhabi and Shenzhen meetings, capping off with the reveal of a surprising signal, just emerging from Steno Research's nowcasting models.Timestamps:00:00 - Welcome to Macro Mondays 00:40 - Midterm Fallout: What the Democratic Sweep Means for Markets    02:59 - Why Republicans Lost the Midterms — and What Changes Next08:06 - Trump vs Congress: Debt Ceiling, Shutdowns, and the Next Two Years11:29 - Will Democrats Slow the AI Data Center Buildout?14:03 - $70 Billion Wiped Out: Was Thursday’s AI Deleveraging the Bottom?15:36 - Inflation Is Rolling Over Fast — Could the Fed Hiking Cycle End Early?17:06 - Growth Is Reaccelerating: Are We Heading Back to a Gung-Ho Regime?19:13 - Abu Dhabi Peace Talks: Russia, Ukraine, and the US Return to the Table20:27 - Shenzhen Summit: Trump, Xi, Putin, and the New Global Power Game22:19 - Ukraine Peace Deal: Borders, NATO, and the Security Guarantee Problem25:02 - Could Peace in Ukraine Ease the Global Diesel Crisis?25:56 - Ukraine, Iran, and the Setup for a Christmas Rally🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

With the U.S. midterm elections just one day away, Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the forces shaping markets as November gets underway. They examine the battle for control of Congress and what the outcome could mean for markets, the disconnect between surging AI investment and selling pressure across technology stocks, and why liquidity could become the next major market catalyst.🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. 📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-futureTimestamps:00:00 - Welcome to Macro Monday's 01:25 - Three News Items: Anthropic Q3, ISM & Iran Oil Drop02:26 - Iran Peace Deal: Trump’s Way Out03:30 - Real Vision Trading League Launch04:31 - October Market Panic: Liquidity & Hedge Fund Deleveraging06:31 - Extreme Positioning & October PPI Turning Point08:36 - Peace Deal Could Spark Rally Like April09:12 - US Midterms: Michigan, Texas & Democratic Sweep13:29 - Lame Duck Period: Appropriations & Debt Ceiling15:19 - Anthropic: Fastest $1B to $75B Growth in History16:42 - “No More AI CapEx” Credit Investor Consensus18:09 - Tech Sector Priced Below 2022 Bottom20:02 - Anthropic IPO: Why Steno Prefers OpenAI21:19 - GPU Spot Prices Soaring Since October22:06 - LLM Margins & Commoditization Debate24:01 - This Week on Real Vision: Drill & Drinks with Raoul26:10 - Positioning: Semiconductors Still Look Great27:45 - Closing Thoughts🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

ndreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to challenge one of the biggest narratives in markets: that the AI boom is simply another dot-com bubble waiting to burst. They break down why today's AI investment cycle may be fundamentally different from the late 1990s, and what that means for tech stocks and the broader market outlook.They also unpack the latest political surprise involving Brazil's Lula and the implications for emerging markets, before turning to renewed EU–China trade tensions and what another escalation could mean for global trade, European industry, and investors.🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. 📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future?utm_medium=social&utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=2026_uyf&utm_content=macro-mondaysTimestamps:00:00 - Anthropic IPO Filing: What It Reveals About the AI Buildout 02:41 - AI vs Dot-Com: Why the Comparison Still Doesn’t Hold05:54 - Why Higher Rates Are Forcing AI to Prove ROI Now08:15 - Big Tech Earnings: Can Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft Calm Credit Markets?09:32 - GPU Rental Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case12:33 - Is Anthropic Running Out of Compute?15:22 - Anthropic IPO: Could It Pull Capital Away From the Mag 7?16:42 - Where to Position If the Fed Finally Acknowledges Tight Financial Conditions18:33 - Has the Market Already Priced in the End of the AI Boom?19:19 - Brazil Election Shock: Lula Wins and Markets Get Hit22:08 - Israel Election: Why Policy Toward Iran May Not Change Much23:50 - EU vs China: Europe Escalates the Trade War🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno of Steno Research is flying solo on this week's Macro Mondays, breaking down the latest inflation signals and what they mean for the market outlook. With energy prices and input costs rising, is another inflation shock on the horizon, and could Kevin Warsh be focusing on the wrong inflation measure? Andreas also examines the latest business cycle data, why he's not ready to turn bearish on equities just yet, and what renewed pressure in France's bond market could mean for European investors.🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. 📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-futureTimestamps:00:00 - France Is Burning — But Is the Market Panic Overdone? 02:30 - French Bond Stress: Why Credit Markets Are Turning on France04:23 - AI Credit Stress: Is the Data Center Buildout Finally Breaking?05:14 - Extreme Fear, Record Hedging, and the Midterm Setup07:30 - Why This AI Selloff Is More Fundamental Than the Last Ones08:26 - Hot CPI and PPI — So Why Did Bond Yields Fall?09:38 - Positioning Is Crowded: Bonds, Energy, Dollar, and AI11:30 - Inflation Peak Ahead? Why October Could Be the Turning Point14:35 - Are the Mag 7 Really About to Cut AI CapEx?15:41 - Compute Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case18:04 - DeepSeek Banned From US Government Systems: A New AI Trade War?20:12 - Hiking Cycles, Credit Stress, and the Timing of the Next Trade21:05 - Why Inflation and the Midterms Could Set Up a Q4 ReboundDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf #macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #realvision🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle the question that matters most for markets right now: are we still mid-cycle, or are the warning signs of a late-cycle economy starting to pile up? They also head to Europe, where surging French bond yields, political uncertainty, and renewed concerns over the country’s finances are putting pressure on French assets. Is the turmoil a genuine warning for investors — or exactly the kind of dislocation you should be buying? Plus, Andreas and Mikkel revisit purchasing power parity and ask how useful PPP really is when trying to figure out where currencies should trade.The markets are wide open right now. Crypto, AI, entire sectors repricing. You don't need a finance degree to play anymore. You just need someone to hand you the map.That's Real Vision. The place where the best minds in macro and crypto break down what's moving, with the research, tools and community to help you make your own calls.🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. Register before October 15 to secure your spot.📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-futureTimestamps:00:00 - Macro Mondays October 5, 202600:22 - Mid-Cycle or Late-Cycle? The Big Macro Question 02:14 - GDP vs PPP: Is Russia’s Economy Really Smaller Than the UK’s?05:15 - Why Energy and Food Self-Sufficiency Matter More in a Crisis07:21 - Iran War Update: Why Oil Flows Are Better Than Before the War10:56 - Can a Democratic Midterm Sweep Derail the AI Buildout?14:32 - ISM Services Miss: Is the US Economy Starting to Slow?17:55 - France in Turmoil: Are Markets Pricing in Too Much Political Risk?20:39 - Marine Le Pen, French Bonds, and Why France Could Be a Buy26:09 - Mid-Cycle vs Late-Cycle: Will Central Banks Kill the Expansion?29:01 - Dollar Strength, Hormuz, and the April-Style Setup Returning#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Apologies for the late upload!We cover the inversion of the yield curve and what that tells us about the business cycle and the outlook for equities. We also discuss the impasse in US-Iran negotiations and the US-China summit.🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether markets are beginning to resemble the setup we saw in March. With the Fed having hiked, yields elevated, and oil moving lower, are the conditions falling into place for another leg higher? They also unpack the new U.S.–Denmark–Greenland agreement and what it means for the shifting geopolitical picture in the Arctic, before diving into the recent crypto rally to see whether it really has legs.🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps:00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 00:22 - Crypto Is Ripping: Should Investors Rotate Out of AI?03:05 - What’s Really Driving the Crypto Rally?04:31 - Why AI and Crypto Could Work Together in the Agent Economy08:23 - Why Markets Are Starting to Look Like March and April Again11:47 - Trump-Xi Summit: Chips, China, and the Next Trade-War Test15:20 - South Korea Exports Surge as the Semiconductor Boom Reaccelerates18:09 - Greenland Deal: What the US, Denmark, and NATO Actually Got22:08 - Semiconductors vs Gold vs Crypto: The Best Q4 Setups23:43 - Iran, Hormuz, and Why We May Be Past Peak Escalation#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #markets #investing #stocks #stockmarket 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to discuss several key macro signals that are potentially shifting all at once. They dig into the outlook for oil flows, whether a new hiking cycle is starting to emerge, and what it all means for the risk-on trade. Be sure to check out the Steno Nowcasting Dashboard for the latest signals on growth, inflation, and liquidity, only on Real Vision! 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps:00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 00:07 - Are We F*cked? AI, Inflation, Oil, and Rate Hikes02:25 - Dario Amodei’s AI Warning: Is the AI Boom About to Slow?05:22 - Why AI CEOs May Be Hedging Political Risk Ahead of the IPOs09:18 - Could the US Government End Up Backstopping the AI Buildout?11:07 - Hardware vs Software: Who Loses If AI Development Slows?15:23 - Fed Preview: Why a September Rate Hike Now Looks Likely17:03 - Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Latest Oil Supply Shock20:32 - Oil Above $100? Why Markets May Already Be Pricing the Worst22:32 - What Kevin Warsh Could Signal After the Rate Hike24:18 - What Usually Happens to Stocks After the Fed Starts Hiking?25:39 - Why the Dollar Could Still Be the Trade to Fade27:52 - Fed vs Global Central Banks: Why the US May Hike Less Than Everyone Else#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack Kevin Warsh’s surprisingly hawkish message at Jackson Hole and what it could mean for markets. They also turn to the latest escalation in the Middle East following U.S. attacks on Larka Island. Is the war restarting, and could renewed geopolitical risk disrupt the market setup just as investors were beginning to embrace the bull case?🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps:00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 00:23 - Kevin Warsh Turns Hawkish: Should Investors Pull Back on Risk?02:01 - What Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Really Changed03:31 - PCE vs CPI: Which Inflation Signal Should the Fed Trust?06:22 - Warsh vs Bessent: The Battle Over Rates and Bond Yields08:58 - September Rate Hike: Is the Market Overreading the Fed?13:04 - Why One Rate Hike Probably Won’t Kill the Business Cycle15:17 - US Strikes Larak Island: Is the Iran War Restarting?16:46 - Strait of Hormuz, Crack Spreads, and the Next Inflation Trade21:12 - South Korea Exports vs ISM: The AI Boom Is Still Running Hot24:01 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Weak Payrolls May Not Stop the Fed25:54 - ECB vs Fed: Why the Short-Dollar Trade Still Works#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #realvision🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to ask whether Friday’s stock market rally marks the return of a more bullish macro setup, and how far this move could run. They break down Scott Bessent’s latest intervention in bond markets and what it could mean for yields, the U.S. dollar, and global liquidity. Plus, they dig into the intensifying Anthropic vs. OpenAI battle and ask whether markets are getting another dose of “Warsh hopium” after Friday’s price action.🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps:00:00 - Are We Finally Back?00:59 - Bitcoin and Gold Start Moving Again02:25 - Why the Debasement Trade Is Back03:24 - What Treasury Buybacks Actually Do04:53 - The TGA Changes the Liquidity Story05:29 - Why Bank Liquidity Matters for Markets07:19 - How Much Liquidity Could Treasury Add?09:42 - Hedge Funds Become the Marginal Treasury Buyer11:35 - Is This Sustainable for Bitcoin and Gold?12:19 - Temporary vs. Permanent Liquidity14:02 - How Big Could Bessent’s Buybacks Get?16:46 - Andreas’ Weaker-Dollar Portfolio Setup18:03 - OpenAI vs. Anthropic24:14 - Iran, China, and the Geopolitical Spillover28:06 - What Could Kevin Warsh Say at Jackson Hole?29:07 - The Most Important Macro Chart Right Now30:06 - Is the Fed About to Turn Less Hawkish?#macromondays #macro  #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #markets #investing #stocks #stockmarket #fed #bonds #treasuries #usdollar #dxy #liquidity #openai #anthropic #interestrates #trading #realvision #scottbessent #kevinwarsh #federalreserve🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf