Alex Shahidi: Gold, Risk Parity & Why 60/40 Is Broken | Lead-Lag Live

Alex Shahidi, Managing Principal and Co-CIO at Evoke Advisors and co-portfolio manager of the RPAR Risk Parity ETF and UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF, returns to Lead-Lag Live for the next single-topic risk-parity conversation — this one focused on commodity producers as the inflation-hedging equity sleeve inside a modern balanced portfolio. Alex makes the structural case for owning commodity producer equities rather than commodity futures — the tax efficiency, the equity risk premium layered on top of the commodity exposure, and the 50+ year track record of outperforming global equities by roughly 2% a year. He walks through how RPAR and UPAR construct the sleeve using the broad Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resources Net Return Index (roughly a third energy, a third industrial and precious metals, a third agriculture), why diversification within the sleeve matters more than picking a single subsector, and why the diversification benefit shows up most when it's needed most — 2022 (equities down 18%, producers up 15%), Q1 2026 (equities down 3%, producers up 20%), and the 1970s (13%+ annualized for a full decade of stagflation). He also gets candid about the behavioral difficulty of holding this sleeve as a standalone position — the 20-30% higher volatility versus global equities, the extended stretches where it deviates significantly from the broader market, and why rebalancing across the risk-parity buckets is what actually captures the long-run edge. The conversation closes with the practical case for RPAR versus a traditional 60/40: what inflation looks like when you zoom out over 100 years, why "low and stable" is the abnormal regime rather than the normal one, and where inflation-linked bonds fit alongside the commodity producer sleeve. Topics covered: (00:00) Opening — another Lead-Lag Live single-topic risk-parity conversation with Alex Shahidi (00:30) Alex introduces Evoke Advisors, RPAR and UPAR, and the risk-parity framework (02:18) Why commodity producer equities instead of commodity futures — tax efficiency and the equity risk premium (04:13) Devil's advocate: are gold miners and other producers actually equities in disguise? (05:09) How the broad producer index is constructed — energy, metals, agriculture, and why diversification within the sleeve matters (06:07) Contango, backwardation, and why the futures path complicates the futures-based approach (07:27) Historical case study — 2022 (equities -18%, producers +15%) and Q1 2026 (equities -3%, producers +20%) (08:50) The 1970s parallel — 13%+ annualized during a decade of stagflation (10:10) Why correlation is a byproduct — divergence shows up when you need it most (12:05) The 55-year track record — 2% annualized outperformance vs global equities, liquid and tax efficient (13:32) Currency exposure and dollar sensitivity in the producer sleeve (14:27) The behavioral challenge — 20-30% more volatile than equities and the discipline required to hold it (17:40) Rebalancing as programmatic mean reversion — why trimming winners matters over full cycles (19:37) Making the case for RPAR versus a traditional 60/40 — the inflation-hedge gap (20:36) Zooming out — 100 years of inflation history and why "low and stable" is the abnormal regime (21:31) Where inflation-linked bonds fit alongside the producer sleeve in a full risk-parity framework About Evoke Advisors: Evoke Advisors is a large, independent registered investment advisor headquartered in Los Angeles, co-founded by Alex Shahidi. The firm co-portfolio-manages the RPAR Risk Parity ETF and the UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF, both built on the principle that a balanced portfolio should diversify across economic environments — not just across asset classes. Where to find Alex and Evoke: Website: evokeadvisors.com RPAR + UPAR ETFs: rparetf.com The Lead-Lag Report: leadlagreport.com Sponsored by Evoke Advisors: The RPAR Risk Parity ETF (RPAR) and UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF (UPAR) offer diversified, all-weather exposure across global equities, Treasuries, TIPS, gold, and commodity producers — engineered to balance risk across four economic environments. Learn more at rparetf.com. Important disclosures: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of any fund before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results. RPAR and UPAR are subject to market risk, interest rate risk, commodity risk, and other risks disclosed in the fund prospectus. Investing in commodity-related equities involves the risks of the underlying commodities markets, including significant price volatility. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. Support the show

Alex Shahidi, Managing Principal at Evoke Advisors and co-portfolio manager of the RPAR Risk Parity ETF and UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF, joins Michael Gayed on Lead-Lag Live to unpack why gold belongs at the core of a modern risk-parity portfolio — and why the traditional 60/40 keeps failing in inflationary regimes. In this first of a new series of narrower, single-topic risk-parity conversations, Alex walks through the three-step framework behind RPAR and UPAR, explains why correlation is a byproduct rather than a driver of diversification, and makes the structural case for gold as an anti-paper-money hedge against fiat debasement, sovereign debt monetization, and central-bank de-dollarization. Topics covered: (00:00) A different kind of Lead-Lag Live — post-close, single-topic risk-parity series with Alex Shahidi (00:57) The three-step risk-parity framework: diverse asset classes, risk-balancing, and rebalancing (02:15) Why the traditional 60/40 concentrates almost all risk in stocks (02:44) Correlation is a byproduct — the four economic environments that actually drive returns (04:26) Adding assets with the opposite inflation bias: gold, commodities, and TIPS (04:50) The growth-vs-inflation quadrant framework and reading market-implied environments (06:18) Gold as an investment: cutting through the gold-bug and gold-skeptic extremes (07:13) The 55-year track record — gold's return, low correlation, and diversification value (08:40) Inside RPAR: why gold is separated from commodity producers as its own bucket (09:53) How gold behaves like a bond in a downturn — the Q1 2020 case study (11:20) When gold doesn't outperform: the liquidity-tightening exception (12:17) The narrative around gold — why every asset needs a story for capital to flow (13:15) Fiat debasement, currency printing, and gold's structural tailwind (14:43) Central-bank de-dollarization since 2022 and the shift into gold reserves (16:08) The bear case: what would derail gold from here (16:33) "Why buy something that yields nothing?" — the pricing-power counterargument (18:24) Building a portfolio with meaningful gold exposure to balance equity risk (19:41) Bullish on diversification, not predictions — the discipline of rebalancing (20:39) Closing thoughts on the new single-asset-class series with Alex About Evoke Advisors: Evoke Advisors is a Los Angeles–based independent wealth-management firm. Alex Shahidi co-manages the RPAR Risk Parity ETF and UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF, applying a systematic risk-parity approach designed to balance exposures across the four macro environments — rising and falling growth, rising and falling inflation. Where to find Alex Shahidi: Evoke Advisors: evokeadvisors.com LinkedIn: Alex Shahidi, CFA, CIMA The Lead-Lag Report: Get Michael's institutional-grade macro research and market analysis. leadlagreport.com Sponsored by Evoke Advisors: Evoke's risk-parity strategies — RPAR and UPAR — offer diversified exposure across global equities, commodities, gold, and treasuries designed to perform across all four macro environments. Learn more at evokeadvisors.com. Disclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not intended as personalized investment advice. Views expressed reflect the current opinions of Michael A. Gayed, CFA, and guests as of the date recorded, are subject to change without notice, and do not represent the views of any firm or entity. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Lead-Lag Media and its principals may hold positions in the securities discussed. Support the show

Preferred stock ETFs, MLPs, and monthly income investing take center stage in this Lead-Lag Live conversation. Michael A. Gayed, CFA, portfolio manager of the ATAC Rotation Fund and publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, sits down with Jay D. Hatfield, CEO and CIO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors (InfraCap) and portfolio manager of the InfraCap ETF suite, for a wide-ranging discussion on income investing, credit conditions, energy infrastructure, and the small-cap opportunity heading into the back half of 2026.What we cover:Why PFFA (Virtus InfraCap U.S. Preferred Stock ETF) sits at the center of a high yield preferred stock ETF strategy, and how PFFA compares against passive preferred baskets and PFFR.AMZA (InfraCap MLP ETF) and where Jay sees midstream MLPs versus Alerian MLP ETF peers in a MLP ETF landscape reshaped by pipeline consolidation.ICAP (InfraCap Equity Income Fund ETF) as an income vehicle for advisors comparing monthly dividend ETF options and best monthly income ETF candidates.BNDS and SCAP for investment-grade credit and small cap value ETF exposure with active management.Where credit spreads, rate expectations, and preferred securities set up for H2 2026 and 2027.The small cap ETF and small cap value ETF opportunity Jay sees as index concentration peaks.InfraCap ETFs discussed: PFFA, AMZA, ICAP, PFFR, BNDS, SCAP.Guest: Jay D. Hatfield, CEO and CIO, Infrastructure Capital Advisors. Host: Michael A. Gayed, CFA, Lead-Lag Report and ATAC Rotation Fund.For institutional and advisor inquiries on Infrastructure Capital's ETF suite, contact Craig Starr at Quasar Distributors LLC, 212-763-8336, [email protected]. More at www.infracapfunds.com.Subscribe to Lead-Lag Live for weekly conversations with the fund managers, economists, and strategists shaping asset allocation for financial advisors.Disclosures: This conversation is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Consider a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. Prospectuses are available at www.infracapfunds.com. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Daniel Santiago from State Street Global Advisors joins Michael A. Gayed, CFA to unpack sector ETF investing in 2026 — the original SPDR product line, now the largest and most liquid sector suite on the market. We get into the Magnificent Seven concentration problem in the S&P 500, how State Street's GICS-based classification actually works (including why SpaceX classifies as communication services), sector dispersion versus style/factor dispersion, and how to think about sector rotation given where we are in the economic cycle.For allocators, advisors, and anyone building portfolios who wants a cleaner framework for reading the tape sector by sector.Guest: Daniel Santiago, Sector ETF Specialist, State Street Global Advisors (SPDR)Host: Michael A. Gayed, CFA — Publisher, The Lead-Lag ReportWatch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alSfJtl1xCIMore: https://leadlagreport.com Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

 Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

 Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

Support the show

 Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

 Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show

 Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Support the show