BNP Paribas Wealth Management podcast

Summarising the current impact of Israel-Gaza-Iran tensions on financial markets

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Edmund Shing, Chief Investment Officer and Guy Ertz, Chief Investment Advisor, at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, discuss the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

 

  • Israel-Gaza tensions have been evident since October 2023, so not a new situation;

  • Global diplomatic efforts have intensified in an effort to avoid escalation of tensions;

  • Brent crude oil price around $90/barrel already incorporates a substantial geopolitical risk premium, but which has not increased of late;

  • Gold prices continue to rise towards $2400/ounce, but driven not by investor safe-haven demand, rather by central bank and Chinese consumer buying;

  • Previous periods of regional conflict have had a surprisingly limited and short-term impact on global financial markets historically;

  • Bigger impact on markets thus far has rather come from upside US inflation and growth surprises pushing US Treasury yields and US dollar higher, pressuring stock markets after a strong 6-month advance

 


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