Fighting the Last War: Markets, Mortgages and the Bank of England’s Hawkish Misfire

What does London’s past reveal about its future? Shabab Qadar, Head of London Offices Insight, joins Will to unpack London’s evolution through deregulation, financial crises, political change and the pandemic. They explore how 2020 accelerated the shift towards higher‑quality space, why the “return to office” debate is now outdated, and how AI, supply constraints and long‑term capital are shaping the next cycle.If you want a clear, focused view on London’s future, and the implications for occupiers, investors and planners, this episode has it.Hosted by Will Matthews, Knight Frank’s Head of Commercial Insight. For more insights like this subscribe to ⁠⁠Will Matthews' newsletter⁠⁠ for his weekly take on commercial real estate markets. Produced by ⁠⁠Rethink Audio⁠⁠. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Tom and Michael Brown unpack how the Bank of England’s unexpectedly hawkish messaging last week helped ignite a sharp repricing across markets already rattled by the Middle East conflict, pushing swap rates up by nearly a full percentage point, and exposing the UK’s fragile fiscal backdrop. They explore why the Bank may be fighting the wrong inflation battle and what this means for borrowers weighing two‑ versus five‑year fixes, and why both housing market activity and policy decisions are now hostage to fast‑shifting geopolitical and energy‑price risks.⁠⁠Subscribe⁠⁠⁠ to Tom Bill's UK Residential Outlook, for all the latest properties, exclusive market analysis, news and data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tom Bill talks to James Nation on Tuesday 10 March about how the fast‑moving conflict in the Middle East is reshaping UK politics, the inflation landscape, and the housing market. James draws parallels with the 2022 energy shock when he worked in the Treasury and explains how geopolitical instability complicates decisions for the Chancellor and the Bank of England. They discuss the risks to fiscal headroom, the unpredictability of mortgage rates, and the different political and economic scenarios that may play out depending on how long the disruption lasts. The conversation also explores the pressures facing the government ahead of this year’s autumn Budget, the implications for housing policy, and what the coming months may mean for Keir Starmer following Labour’s defeat in the recent Gorton and Denton by-election. ⁠Subscribe⁠⁠ to Tom Bill's UK Residential Outlook, for all the latest properties, exclusive market analysis, news and data.This is an episode from Housing Unpacked, Knight Frank’s podcast dedicated to the UK housing market.Produced by Rethink Audio Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tom Bill and Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown unpack how the Middle East conflict is rippling through global markets, lifting energy prices, reshaping interest rate expectations and influencing sentiment in the UK economy and housing market. They explore what this means for mortgage rates, the validity of the Spring Statement, and the Bank of England’s next move.⁠Subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠ to Tom Bill's UK Residential Outlook, for all the latest properties, exclusive market analysis, news and data.This is an episode from Housing Unpacked, Knight Frank’s podcast dedicated to the UK housing market.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Rethink Audio⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

To unpack how ESG is evolving into a conversation about risk, resilience and returns, Flora Harley, Head of Knight Frank’s Energy & Sustainability Research joins us on this week's episode.We explore why ESG is increasingly being reframed as operational performance, how occupiers and investors are prioritising energy efficiency, cost certainty and liquidity, and where sustainability initiatives genuinely protect long‑term value. From electrification and energy‑use intensity to lending, insurance and the emerging “brown discount”, this episode cuts through the jargon to focus on what really matters.If you want a clear, practical take on ESG, without the buzzwords, this one’s for you.Hosted by Will Matthews, Knight Frank’s Head of Commercial Insight. For more insights like this subscribe to ⁠Will Matthews' newsletter⁠ for his weekly take on commercial real estate markets.This is an episode from Commercially Minded, Knight Frank’s podcast dedicated to unpicking the latest commercial property data.Produced by ⁠Rethink Audio⁠. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Tom Bill talks with Mike Hussey, CEO of Almacantar, about the real‑world challenges of delivering major schemes in London - from tricky 1960s refurbishments to complex new‑builds on constrained sites. Mike reflects on working with different London mayors, how political interventions can slow projects, and why there is so much misunderstanding around viability. They explore London’s enduring resilience as a global city, with Mike explaining why super‑prime residential demand remains steady but slower to convert, and how long‑term stability matters as much as tax tweaks for investors. Finally, he shares when Almacantar may feel ready to buy its next site.Subscribe⁠⁠ to Tom Bill's UK Residential Outlook, for all the latest properties, exclusive market analysis, news and data. This is an episode from Housing Unpacked, Knight Frank’s podcast dedicated to the UK housing market.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠Rethink Audio⁠⁠⁠. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A fast‑moving start to 2026 sets the tone for this episode as Tom Bill and Pepperstone’s Michael Brown break down a month of relentless global drama and its impact on borrowing costs - from Trump’s tariff brinkmanship and geopolitical flare‑ups to fiscal fears over Japan. We dig into why UK swap rates have risen, how much faith to put in recent UK economic data, why haven demand is rising, and how political jitters in Westminster are still rattling gilt markets. All of it feeds directly into mortgage pricing, the timing of Bank of England rate cuts, and what buyers and sellers should expect in the months ahead.⁠Subscribe⁠⁠ to Tom Bill's UK Residential Outlook, for all the latest properties, exclusive market analysis, news and data.This is an episode from Housing Unpacked, Knight Frank’s podcast dedicated to the UK housing market.Produced by ⁠⁠⁠Rethink Audio⁠⁠⁠. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Retail is back on top, ending 2025 as the top performing real estate asset class. How can the sector's resurgence bring insights - and valuable lessons - to apply to other commercial real estate sectors? We dive into Stephen Springham's insight series 'Retail Renaissance' to find out.Host Will Matthews, Knight Frank’s Head of Commercial Insight, is joined by Stephen Springham, Head of UK Markets Insight, who brings over 30 years of industry experience.In this episode you'll discover why 'relevance' trumps 'prime', and the importance of addressing underinvestment and complacency. Plus: how to navigate the complexities of repurposing retail spaces, and why strong occupier relationships are vital for a sustainable market. For more insights like this subscribe to Will Matthews' newsletter for his weekly take on commercial real estate markets. And you can read Stephen Springham’s Retail Renaissance papers, exploring what other real estate sectors can learn from Retail’s fall and unlikely rise again.This is an episode from Commercially Minded, Knight Frank’s podcast dedicated to unpicking the latest commercial property data.Produced by Rethink Audio Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, we take a deep dive into Los Angeles’ luxury housing market—one of the world’s largest super‑prime residential hubs, currently ranking third globally for $10‑million‑plus sales. Despite a range of challenges in recent years, the market continues to show remarkable resilience and remains a key destination for global private wealth.Liam is joined by Nick Segal to unpack the dynamics of a market that has recorded 250 sales above $10 million in the past 12 months, totalling $4.6 billion. Nick explains how the city is navigating significant headwinds—from the ULA tax reform, which imposes an excise tax of up to 5.5% on high‑value transactions, to complex insurance challenges and the emotional toll following last year’s devastating fires. While these factors have prompted some wealth migration to states such as Texas and Florida, the conversation explores why a degree of “stickiness” remains, and why some buyers are already returning to California.The discussion explores the structural shifts in buyer behaviour, noting a move away from “aspirational” pricing towards a necessary realism among sellers. Nick highlights how tech wealth and other alternative sectors are backfilling changes in the traditional entertainment industry. In addition, a new trend in wellness‑driven development is reshaping the luxury landscape, with an increasing emphasis on lifestyle quality.Looking ahead to 2026, Liam and Nick discuss the potential for a “righting of the ship,” driven by anticipated interest rate reductions and growing political momentum to recalibrate tax initiatives. They identify key sub‑markets to watch, including the Palisades—which is poised for a major recalibration—and Beverly Hills, which remains a stronghold for developers due to its exemption from the ULA tax.For more insight into global wealth, luxury markets and the assets that sit alongside property subscribe to Liam’s twice-weekly research briefing here: https://preferences.knightfrank.com/subscribe-to-research?utm_campaign=2703391_Data%20Protection%20-%20Not%20asked%20consent%20%28Headshot%29&utm_medium=Email%20Marketing&utm_source=Dotmailer&dm_t=0,0,0,0,0Host: Liam Bailey, Global Head of Research at Knight Frank & Editor of The Wealth Report, [email protected]: Nick Segal, Managing Broker at the leading Los Angeles brokerage, Carolwood, which has recently launched a new strategic alliance with Knight Frank. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rob Perrins, Executive Chairman of Berkeley Group, joins Tom Bill to explore the realities behind the government’s housing ambitions, the impact of the Autumn Budget, and what it will really take to deliver 1.5 million homes. With over 30 years at Berkeley, Rob offers a unique perspective on the UK’s planning system and the challenges of delivering homes at scale, particularly in London. He discusses why housing delivery has stalled, how the regulatory burden and taxation are undermining viability, and why restoring confidence and the “feelgood factor” is critical for the market. Rob also reflects on his career at Berkeley, the legacy of founder Tony Pidgley, and how the company’s culture of regeneration, placemaking and long-term investment continues to shape its approach today.⁠Subscribe⁠ to Tom Bill's UK Residential Outlook, for all the latest properties, exclusive market analysis, news and data.This is an episode from Housing Unpacked, Knight Frank’s podcast dedicated to the UK housing market.Produced by ⁠⁠Rethink Audio⁠⁠. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.