How will the Vijay factor affect the political field in Tamil Nadu? | In Focus podcast

Negotiators, government representatives, and activists from across the world will assemble in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 for COP29, this year's U.N. climate summit.   This COP or Conference of Parties is dubbed the "climate finance COP" as it has a big goal - setting a new climate financing target. Negotiators will discuss ways to set up a fund to help developing countries fight against climate change.  But, the issues of climate financing are not just about setting a target; it is about incentivising the private sector to invest in greener technologies, forming regulations to aid the process and finding ways to fund transition from fossil fuels.   Guest: Dr. Monika Gupta, Assistant Professor, Finance and Economics, SPJIMR  Host: V Nivedita  Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian.

The much-delayed Census may finally be conducted next year, with the process being completed in 2026. Following the Census the Central government may go ahead with a delimitation exercise – re-drafting constituencies, based on updated population numbers. This seems to have sparked concern amongst some south Indian States, who believe that the number of seats they represent in Parliament could decrease, as their populations are lower than those of certain States in the north, as they have achieved population control milestones. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu recently expressed concerns about his State’s ageing population and called on residents to have more children. Two days later, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, while attending a mass wedding event, referred to a blessing about acquiring 16 different kinds of wealth, said in jest that with delimitation coming up, perhaps residents should rethink having small families. So what’s going to happen with the delimitation exercise? Will southern States lose out on a large number of seats while those in the north get more? Will these place a wedge between two halves of the country, driving ‘north-south’ politics? Is there are a fairer system to ensure adequate representation without penalising States that have performed better? Guest: Sonalde Desai: Professor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), and Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland, U.S. Host: Zubeda Hamid Edited by Jude Francis Weston

Americans are all set to pick their 47th President on November 5. The campaigning has been one of the most fractious in US history, and the stakes have perhaps never been higher. With the Trump campaign focussed on immigration and Harris on women’s rights, whose narrative has won? With just a couple of days of campaigning left, where do the candidates stand with regard to key constituencies such as Latinos, Blacks, especially Black men, Arab/Muslim communities, and women? And who is ahead in the battleground states? Guest: Sanjay Ruparelia, Associate Professor, Jarislowsky Democracy Chair, in the Department of Politics and Public Administration at Toronto Metropolitan University. Host: G. Sampath, Social Affairs Editor, The Hindu. Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian.

This year’s Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson [AJR] for their work in understanding how good institutions play are essential role for a country’s prosperity. They explain how 'inclusive institutions' can help countries grow and create long-term benefits for everyone. They also explain how 'extractive institutions' provide short-term gains for the people in power.   In a press release announcing the winners of this year's Nobel Prize for Economic Science, the The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences noted that societies changed when Europeans colonised large parts of the globe. "This was sometimes dramatic, but did not occur in the same way everywhere. In some places, the aim was to exploit the indigenous population and extract resources for the colonisers’ benefit. In others, the colonisers formed inclusive political and economic systems for the long-term benefit of European migrants," the press release says.  AJR's hypothesis explains the role of institutions in wealth creation why some former colonies are poor. However, their work has come under sharp criticism from several quarters for ignoring the effects colonisation had on the colonised countries and how many of these countries still reel under the effects of colonisation. Guest: Dr. Surbhi Kesar, a senior lecturer at the Department of Economics at School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. Host: Nivedita. V Edited by Jude Weston

Eight months after he announced the launch of a new political party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), actor Vijay held his first political rally on October 27th. The event attracted nearly three lakh supporters, and Vijay made it clear he has his eyes set on the 2026 assembly elections. In a bid to clarify his party’s political values, he invoked the likes of Periyar, Ambedkar, Kamaraj, Anjalai Ammal, and Velu Nachiar. In a speech that lasted a little over 45 minutes, he implied that the BJP was his ideological enemy and the DMK, his political adversary. What is the likely impact of Vijay’s foray into electoral politics? Can his party break the bipolar nature of Tamil Nadu politics? Which political parties are likely to see their vote shares erode on account of the Vijay factor? Guest: B Kolappan, who tracks Tamil Nadu politics for The Hindu. Host: G. Sampath, Social Affairs Editor, The Hindu. Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian.

India and China have reached an agreement on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). This is expected to lead to “disengagement” and eventually a proper resolution of the tensions that had emerged along the India-China border in 2020. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said that this agreement is just the “first phase”. What exactly is covered by this patrolling pact? What are the outstanding issues that remain? And what is the significance of the recent meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping in the context of this agreement? Guest: Jabin T Jacob, Associate Professor in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at Shiv Nadar University. Host: G. Sampath, Social Affairs Editor, The Hindu. Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian.

Yayha Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and head of the group’s political bureau was killed by Israeli forces on October 16. His death sparked contrasting reactions. While the West has largely endorsed the killing of a man Israel’s considers as the ‘mastermind’ of the October 7, 2023 attack, Palestinians, Arabs, and other actors in the Middle East have hailed him as a ‘martyr’ and a ‘hero’ who will inspire Palestinians to continue their fight for self-determination and statehood. Some commentators in the West also see in his passing an opportunity for a ceasefire, return of the Israeli hostages, and a strategic reshaping of the region in favour of Israeli and American interests. What does Sinwar’s death mean for Hamas? Will it help or hinder the prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza? What does Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mean when he said that the war is “not over” despite the killing of top Hamas leaders such as Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, and also much of Hezbollah’s senior leadership? Guest: Dr. Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor in the School of Security, Defence Studies Department, Institute of Middle-Eastern Studies, at King’s College, London. Host: G. Sampath, Social Affairs Editor, The Hindu. Edited by Jude Francis Weston

For the fifth time in its history, the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine has been given for research into RNA. This year’s Nobel Prize winners, Victor Ambros and Gary Ruvkun were awarded the prize for discovery of microRNA and its role in post-transcriptional gene regulation. What is microRNA? Why was its discovery important? What are the implications of this for research into human health and diseases? What is the current RNA research ongoing in India? And is RNA now taking centrestage for its importance in maintaining the balance in our cells, critical to good health and life? Guest: Reety Arora, a molecular biologist, with experience in stem cell biology, cancer research and CRISPR and currently principal scientist and head, R&D, CRISPRBITS, a company based in Bangalore. Host: Zubeda Hamid Edited by Jude Francis Weston

Last week, the Supreme Court recalled its judgement of August 23, 2022, wherein it had struck down certain provisions of the Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Act of 2016. Through the 2016 Act, the government had amended the original legislation, the Prohibition of Benami Property Transactions Act, 1988. The 2016 law had expanded the original law from nine sections to 72 sections. In 2016, a three-judge Bench led by Chief Justice N.V. Ramana had declared as unconstitutional Sections 3 (2) and 5 of the 2016 Act. Section 3(2) mandates three years of imprisonment for those who had entered into benami transactions between September 5, 1988, and October 25, 2016—that is, a person could be jailed for a benami transaction done 28 years before the Section even came into existence. The other provision that was struck down, Section 5, states that “any property, which is subject matter of benami transaction, shall be liable to be confiscated by the Central Government.” What was the Supreme Court’s reasoning in its 2022 judgement when it struck down these provisions? What is the rationale for the Review Bench to recall the earlier order and refer the case for fresh adjudication? What is at stake for the general public in this case? Guest: Amit Pai, Advocate on Record at the Supreme Court of India. Host: G. Sampath, Social Affairs Editor, The Hindu. Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian.

Last week, G.N. Saibaba, a former professor at Delhi University, died, after being released from jail in March this year after spending 10 years incarcerated. He was jailed on terror charges – but was eventually found innocent by the Bombay High Court. The Court while acquitting him had criticised both the investigation and the trial court’s decision in finding him guilty. Despite being 90% disabled and on a wheelchair due to polio, Prof Saibaba, as per his own account was constantly denied access to medical care while in jail, denied medical bail during the pandemic and denied emergency bail during the death of his mother. His case highlights once again, the problematic issue of bail in our criminal judicial system. Who has access to bail? How is bail given and can bail conditions be met by those seeking it? Does our bail system privilege the wealthy and leave out the vast majority of others? Is not being able to access or not being granted bail behind the problem of the huge number of undertrials in Indian jails and the overcrowding of the system? Guest: Medha Deo, Programme Director, Fair Trial Programme of Project 39A from National Law University, Delhi Host: Zubeda Hamid Edited by Jude Francis Weston