Public Opinion, Primaries, and the 2024 Election | Hoover Institution, RAI (session 3)

Tuesday, April 16, 2024   Hoover Institution | Stanford University The Hoover History Working Group held a seminar on Cliodynamics of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration with Peter Turchin on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 from 1:30 pm - 3:00 pm PT. The book is available for purchase here. ABOUT THE TALK Social and political turbulence in the United States and Western European countries has been rising over the past decade. Our research, which combines analysis of historical data with the tools of complexity science, has identified the deep structural forces that work to undermine societal stability and resilience to internal and external shocks. Here I look beneath the surface of day-to-day contentious politics and social unrest, and focus on the negative social and economic trends that explain our current “Age of Discord.” One of the most important, but little appreciated, such hidden forces is a perverse “wealth pump” that, under certain conditions, begins to transfer wealth from the “99 percent” to “1 percent.” If allowed to run unchecked, the wealth pump results in both relative impoverishment of most people and increasingly desperate competition among elites. Since the number of positions of real social power remains more or less fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. ABOUT THE SPEAKER Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub–Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. A founder of the field of Cliodynamics, his books include End Times (2023) and Ultrasociety (2016).

A Post-9/11 Veteran Town Hall Discussion with veterans Jason Galui, Colin Frances Jackson, and Felicia Pinckney and Veteran Fellowship Program Fellow John Moses led by Hoover Fellow Jacquelyn Schneider. Veterans’ experience abroad imparts a deep empathy for the world around them, with significant implications for the local communities to which they return. How does the post 9/11 veteran experience of combat or service abroad, and the profound relationships built between servicemembers and foreign allies and partners, impact how veterans view their responsibility to others when they return home? More specifically, for this generation of veterans, how do relationships built in Iraq and Afghanistan influence veterans’ advocacy with local and federal policies? How does the experience of the post 9/11 all-volunteer force manifest in democratic ideals at home? March 7, 2024 – Chelmsford Unitarian Church, Chelmsford, MA. Featuring Jason Galui | Director for Veterans and Military Families, George W. Bush Institute: USA Veteran Colin Frances Jackson | Chairman, Strategic and Operational Research Department, US Naval War College; USAR John Moses | Hoover Veteran Fellow; Co-Founder, Massachusetts Afghan Alliance; Retired SFC, USA Felicia Pinckney | Program Manager, Network Development for Home Base program, Massachusetts General Hospital; USA veteran Moderated by Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider | Hoover Fellow, post-9/11 Veteran, USAFR

A Post-9/11 Veteran Town Hall Discussion with veterans Gil Barndollar and Robin Johnson, Veteran Fellowship Program Fellows Matthew Brown and Claudia Flores led by Hoover Fellow Jacquelyn Schneider. One of the greatest challenges for the All Volunteer Force is how to reintegrate a professional, volunteer military back into civilian society.  For many previous generations, this re-integration was supported by veterans organizations, like the Veterans of Foreign Wars, which created a space for veterans to share experiences as they re-started their civilian life.  However, the post 9/11 veteran generation has new challenges both in re-connecting with civilian life and in creating bonds between post 9/11 veterans that create positive societal impacts.  The rise of social media as well as the diversity and the volunteer nature of this generation means that Vietnam-era structures and institutions designed for veterans may not work for building social bonds between 9/11 veterans and their communities.  How does the post 9/11 veteran build social capital among each other?  How do they connect with their communities?  How can the post 9/11 veteran experience build social cohesion not only between veterans and civilians but also in the broader civil society?   Tuesday, February 20, 2024 – Denver, CO Featuring Gil Barndollar | Senior Research Fellow, Center for the Study of Statesmanship; USMC veteran Matthew Brown | Hoover Veteran Fellow; President and CEO, Chimney Trail; USN Veteran Claudia Flores | Hoover Veteran Fellow; Policy and Planning Director, Virginia Department of Veteran Services; USN Veteran Robin Johnson | CEO, Best Medicine Brigade; President, HEAL*ARIOUS; USA veteran Moderated by Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider | Hoover Fellow, post-9/11 Veteran, USAFR

A Post-9/11 Veteran Town Hall Discussion with local veterans Cathy Cohn, Mikhail Venikov, Justin Adney and Veteran Fellowship Program Fellow Michael Wendler led by Hoover Fellow Jacquelyn Schneider, and featuring a special welcome by the Hon. Jackie Speier and Susan Manheimer, the former San Mateo Chief of Police. The post 9/11 veteran is not defined by one campaign or conflict. That can be something that often divides this generation. However, the remarkable diversity of conflicts and crises in which this generation served created a veteran generation with experience not only in fighting wars, but also building schools, curing diseases, fighting fires, and providing humanitarian assistance in the face of natural and manmade disasters. This means the post 9/11 veteran generation is returning home with extraordinary skills to lead and serve within their local communities. How does the post 9-11 veteran experience translate to public service? What is the role of the guard and the reserve in creating a bridge between military and public service, especially for the post 9-11 veteran generation? Thursday, December 14, 2023 – Elks Lodge, San Mateo, CA Featuring Justin Adney | Firefighter/Engineer, Santa Clara County Fire Department, Marine Reserve Cathy Cohn | Navy Veteran, Science Educator Mikhail Venikov | Army Veteran, Officer, San Mateo Police Department; Founder & CEO, RangerRoad Michael Wendler | Hoover Veteran Fellow, Judge, County of San Mateo Moderated by Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider | Hoover Fellow, post-9/11 Veteran, USAFR With special welcome by Susan Manheimer  | Chief of Police (Retired), San Mateo Police Department Jackie Speier | Former US Representative for San Mateo and  South San Francisco

One of the keys to China’s global rise has been its strategy of deploying sovereign wealth on behalf of state power. Since President Xi Jinping took office in 2013, China has doubled down on financial statecraft, making shrewd investments with the sovereign funds it has built up by leveraging its foreign exchange reserves. Sovereign Funds tells the story of how the Communist Party of China (CPC) became a global financier of surpassing ambition. Dr. Liu offers a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of the evolution of China’s sovereign funds, including the China Investment Corporation, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and Central Huijin Investment. Dr. Liu shows how these institutions have become mechanisms not only for transforming low-reward foreign exchange reserves into investment capital but also for power projection. Sovereign funds are essential drivers of the national interest, shaping global markets, advancing the historic Belt and Road Initiative, and funneling state assets into strategic industries such as semiconductors, fintech, and artificial intelligence. In the era of President Xi, state-owned financial institutions have become gatekeepers of the Chinese economy. Political and personal relationships with prestigious sovereign funds have enabled Blackstone to flourish in China and have fueled the ascendance of private tech giants such as Alibaba, Ant Finance, and Didi. ABOUT THE SPEAKER Zongyuan Zoe Liu is Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her work focuses on international political economy, global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds, supply chains of critical minerals, development finance, emerging markets, energy and climate change policy, and East Asia-Middle East relations. Dr. Liu is the author of Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System? (Cambridge University Press) and Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances its Global Ambitions (Harvard University Press). Dr. Liu completed her Ph.D at the Edwin Reischauer fellow at School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University. Prior to joining CFR, Dr. Liu was an instructional assistant professor at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government and Public Service in Washington, DC, where she taught courses on global economy, economic statecraft, and Chinese foreign policy.

The Hoover Institution held a conversation on What is the Role of Future International Collaboration: Risks and Opportunities on January 22, 2024 from 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM PT. Dr. Thomas Mason addressed aspects of research openness and the daily need to protect the information that is critically important to universities, National Labs, the federal government, and the private sector. The conversation was followed by a 30 minute Q&A.  As a national security science laboratory Los Alamos National Lab has worked to strike the right balance between openness of research and protection of information for over eighty years. The talk addressed the historic importance of open international collaboration in fostering rapid innovation with economic and national security benefits while still recognizing the need to manage the risks that come with international engagement. SPEAKER Thomas Mason is the President and CEO of Triad National Security, LLC (Triad) and serves as the Director of Los Alamos National Laboratory. Most recently he was the Senior Vice President for Global Laboratory Operations at Battelle where he had responsibility for governance and strategy across the six National Laboratories that Battelle manages or co-manages. Prior to joining Battelle, Thom worked at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for 19 years, including 10 years as the Laboratory Director. Under his leadership, ORNL saw significant growth in programs, new facilities, and hiring while achieving record low safety incident rates. Before becoming Laboratory Director, he was Associate Laboratory Director (ALD) for Neutron Sciences, ALD for the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS), and Director of the Experimental Facilities Division. During his time in Oak Ridge, Thom was active in the community serving as Chair of the Oak Ridge Public Schools Education Foundation as well as Innovation Valley, the Knoxville-Oak Ridge area regional economic development organization. He moved to ORNL from the University of Toronto where he was a faculty member in the Department of Physics and previously worked as a Senior Scientist at Risø National Laboratory and a Postdoc at AT&T Bell Laboratories. For the past 30 years, he has been involved in the design and construction of scientific instrumentation and facilities and the application of nuclear, computing, and materials sciences to solve important challenges in energy and national security. Thom has a Ph.D. in Experimental Condensed Matter Physics from McMaster University and a BSc in Physics from Dalhousie University. INTRODUCTORY REMARKS BY Norbert Holtkamp is a Science Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Holtkamp is also a professor of particle physics and astrophysics and of photon science at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory at Stanford University BACKGROUND International collaborations and research openness have been enormously beneficial to the United States supporting rapid advances of world leading Science & Technology in our country. They brought a large group of incredibly talented people from around the world to come work with US science and technology industry. In the end, many of them stayed which provided a pipeline for innovation and business growth helping to maintain a standard of “world leading.” The simple fact that others successfully try to copy the process should encourage the US to continue. In a changing world though where the standards of research openness are not shared anymore, managing the risks better than in the past becomes essential. Research openness and specifically international collaboration with friends and opponents always carries the risk of unwanted release of information. Industrial espionage in the private sector does have negative economic impact, can threaten national security, or lose competitive advantages. Over the past few years, there has been a significant rise in the systematic collection of intellectual property on a broad scale within the domains of private, public, and national security sectors. This development has had a profound impact on the global research community. Research openness is commonly understood and shared by much of the World’s science community and led by the US, for long was captured in a quite simple National Security Decision Directive (NSDD-189). Essentially: “It’s open until it’s classified”. While NSDD-189 wasn’t abandoned officially yet, effectively it has been in many instances. New definitions “CUI = Confidential but Unclassified Information,” central control of international collaboration agreements, top down managed travel restrictions of “going to” or “inviting in”, strictly enforced Conflict of Interest agreements are all existing elements in a new world that grapples with the balance between openness and benefit from it versus risk of losing. The US needs a pipeline of trained engineers, scientists, and entrepreneurs. Without inviting a substantial foreign national contingent into our schools and universities from which many will typically stay, it is not clear that US demographics would even allow the US alone to fill this pipeline. Whether it is the academic or private sector: it is essential to understand in more detail how international collaboration provided and can provide in the future economic benefit, intelligence insight, faster scientific discoveries, and sometimes even aiding diplomatic efforts and continue to bring the best and brightest innovators to the US. As part of the project, each of these elements (faster scientific advance – economic benefit – intelligence & insight – demographics & talent recruiting) will be addressed.

December 1, 2023 Hoover Institution | Stanford University The Center for Revitalizing American Institutions (RAI) hosts its “State of American Institutions” conference on Thursday, November 30, and Friday, December 1. In this panel, participants focus on the alarming lack of trust in US elections among citizens. With over one-third of the nation expressing doubt about the reliability of the electoral process, the participants maintain that there exists a critical need for strengthening confidence to avoid impediments to the nation’s political leadership in governing effectively. Various strategies are discussed to address this crisis in confidence. These include conveying research findings, much of which is conducted by Hoover scholars, to dispel misconceptions that assert US elections are compromised by significant voter fraud or suppression. Additionally, the panelists emphasize the importance of enhancing communication with voters, providing clear information about the safeguards in the electoral system. They also advocate for improvements in the way the media reports election results, aiming to temper the intensity of public discourse, particularly in tightly contested races. For more information, visit https://www.hoover.org/events/state-american-institutions-center-revitalizing-american-institutions ABOUT THE SPEAKERS Ben Ginsberg, Volker Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution Justin Grimmer, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; and Professor of Political Science, Stanford University Lieutenant Governor Deidre M. Henderson, State of Utah Robb Willer, Professor of Sociology, Stanford University Moderator: Sarah Anzia, Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution; and Professor of Public Policy & Political Science, University of California-Berkeley ABOUT THE CENTER FOR REVITALIZING AMERICAN INSTITUTIONS (RAI): In an objective, non-partisan spirit, the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions (RAI) draws on the Hoover Institution’s scholarship, government experience, and convening power to study the reasons behind the crisis in trust facing American institutions, analyze how they are operating in practice, and consider policy recommendations to rebuild trust and increase their effectiveness. Learn more: https://www.hoover.org/research-teams/center-revitalizing-american-institutions

December 1, 2023 Hoover Institution | Stanford University The Center for Revitalizing American Institutions (RAI) hosts its “State of American Institutions” conference on Thursday, November 30, and Friday, December 1. In this panel, participants discuss the dearth of civil discourse at universities. It is suggested that university administrations are struggling to adapt to the pace of the social media environment and political pressures exerted on campuses from outside forces. Participants agree that faculty should focus on research and pedagogy. Instead of shutting down debate to evade controversy, they maintain, leadership in the academy should do a better job of listening and helping foster respectful conversations about society and politics with diverse points of view. For more information, visit https://www.hoover.org/events/state-american-institutions-center-revitalizing-american-institutions ABOUT THE SPEAKERS Anna Grzymala-Busse, Senior Fellow (courtesy), Hoover Institution; and Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies, Political Science, Stanford University Jonathan Holloway, President, Rutgers University Josiah Ober, Senior Fellow (courtesy), Hoover Institution; and The Markos & Eleni Kounalakis Chair in Honor of Constantine Mitsotakis Professor of Political Science and Classics, Stanford University Keith Whittington, Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution, and William Nelson Cromwell Professor of Politics, Princeton University Moderator: Stephen Haber, Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, A.A. and Jeanne Welch Milligan Professor, Political Science, Stanford University ABOUT THE CENTER FOR REVITALIZING AMERICAN INSTITUTIONS (RAI): In an objective, non-partisan spirit, the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions (RAI) draws on the Hoover Institution’s scholarship, government experience, and convening power to study the reasons behind the crisis in trust facing American institutions, analyze how they are operating in practice, and consider policy recommendations to rebuild trust and increase their effectiveness. Learn more: https://www.hoover.org/research-teams/center-revitalizing-american-institutions

December 1, 2023 Hoover Institution | Stanford University The Center for Revitalizing American Institutions (RAI) hosted its “State of American Institutions” conference on Thursday, November 30, and Friday, December 1. In this panel, participants discuss strengthening the American public’s trust in the US military. Despite the military enjoying greater trust compared to other institutions, its current level of 60 percent, as reported by a recent Gallup poll, still represents a recent decline. Participants suggest that rebuilding trust requires addressing the deficit of civics and history education. Further, citizens must understand that one of the pillars of US government is civilian control of the military. Participants also maintain that a component of restoring trust is preserving the warrior ethos and maintaining high standards of excellence among military personnel. The populace, participants maintain, should understand that the military is intended to protect and defend the country, and its mission should not be sidetracked by political agendas. For more information, visit https://www.hoover.org/events/state-american-institutions-center-revitalizing-american-institutions ABOUT THE SPEAKERS The Honorable Joni Ernst, United States Senator for Iowa Peter Feaver, Professor of Political Science, Duke University General Jim Mattis, Davies Family Distinguished Fellow, Hoover Institution; and former Secretary of Defense Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; and former National Security Advisor Moderator: Stephen Kotkin, Kleinheinz Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; and Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University ABOUT THE CENTER FOR REVITALIZING AMERICAN INSTITUTIONS (RAI): In an objective, non-partisan spirit, the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions (RAI) draws on the Hoover Institution’s scholarship, government experience, and convening power to study the reasons behind the crisis in trust facing American institutions, analyze how they are operating in practice, and consider policy recommendations to rebuild trust and increase their effectiveness. Learn more: https://www.hoover.org/research-teams/center-revitalizing-american-institutions

December 1, 2023 Hoover Institution | Stanford University In this keynote luncheon, David Kennedy, a distinguished visiting fellow at Hoover and a history professor at Stanford, offers a historical perspective on the American primary process. He outlines the effects of rule changes that followed the 1968 election, mandating the transfer of delegates to candidates based on the voters’ will rather than the discretion of party leaders in nominating contests. Kennedy is followed by Davies Family Senior Fellow, Emeritus, David Brady, who presents data demonstrating how primary voters from both major political parties invariably elect congressional candidates on their respective party’s extremes, fostering a political environment with no incentive for compromise. The session concludes with remarks by senior fellow, Stanford political scientist, and pollster Douglas Rivers, who provides an analysis of the 2024 presidential election, describing polling data that demonstrates distinct advantages for Republicans. For more information, visit https://www.hoover.org/events/state-american-institutions-center-revitalizing-american-institutions ABOUT THE SPEAKERS David Brady, Davies Family Senior Fellow, Emeritus, Hoover Institution; and Professor of Political Science, Emeritus, Stanford University David Kennedy, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution; and Donald J. McLachlan Professor of History, Emeritus, Stanford University Douglas Rivers, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; and Professor of Political Science, Stanford University Moderator: D. Sunshine Hillygus, Professor of Political Science, Duke University ABOUT THE CENTER FOR REVITALIZING AMERICAN INSTITUTIONS (RAI): In an objective, non-partisan spirit, the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions (RAI) draws on the Hoover Institution’s scholarship, government experience, and convening power to study the reasons behind the crisis in trust facing American institutions, analyze how they are operating in practice, and consider policy recommendations to rebuild trust and increase their effectiveness. Learn more: https://www.hoover.org/research-teams/center-revitalizing-american-institutions