Israel’s Options, Plus Navalny’s Legacy and Ranking the US Presidents, with Dan Senor | GoodFellows: John H. Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and Bill Whalen | Hoover Institution

Historians differ over the need to explore “counterfactuals”—the study of scenarios that never happened—and what they can tell us about historical causation. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution’s Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and noted historian of Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss alternative historical outcomes: Stalin not surviving a two-front invasion in World War II and Churchill dying well beforehand; the American Revolution failing; the Beatles never spearheading pop music’s British Invasion; a Trump victory in 2020 and its potential effect on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the Middle East; plus a world in which COVID never happened (spoiler alert: it might have impacted John and Niall’s book sales).

Did Israel’s failure to anticipate Hamas’s surprise attack in October 2023 stem from an overreliance on technical rather than human intelligence gathering? And is TikTok really a national security threat to America? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institution’s Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow and author of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss Israel’s intel failure, whether TikTok is the menace it’s portrayed to be, plus how spy films (wrongly) shape the public’s view on espionage. Next the fellows discuss the driving forces behind campus unrest across the US and how long the movement will last, followed by a series of other discussions: rebutting anti-American sentiment; the best fast-food burger; the popularity of “Austrian school” economics in South America; and the likely winner were Niall, John, and H.R. to slug it out in a UFC octagon (spoiler alert: Niall and John don’t like their chances). 

Nearly 40 years since the nation last saw comprehensive reform on the matter, the consensus is that America’s immigration system is sorely in need of updating to 21st-century realities. Reihan Salam, Manhattan Institute president and author of the book Melting Pot or Civil War?, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss a smarter approach to welcoming newcomers to America. After that: the fellows discuss the ramifications of Iran’s not-so-surprise missile assault on Israel and what the coming months portend for those warring nations. Finally, John and H.R. (and a few surprise guests) welcome Niall to his “swinging 60s”—Hoover’s “international man of history” officially a sexagenarian on the same day this show was recorded. 

As the six-month anniversary of Hamas’s attack on Israel approaches, what to expect next in that struggle—and is the American president and Israeli prime minister’s working relationship beyond repair? New York Times columnist Bret Stephens joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the war’s possible expansion into southern Lebanon and Stephens’s vision of a rebuilt Gaza as a Mediterranean version of Dubai. After that, a celebration of four years since GoodFellows’ “shelter-in place” debut, including a little boasting (they saw inflation coming), a little contrition (they didn’t see Trump rebounding), and some big takeaways on geopolitics, economics, and the pandemic’s legacy.

Facing hot wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and a prolonged cold war in East Asia, how does America adapt its military strategy and resources—and in which direction? Elbridge Colby, former Defense Department assistant secretary and cofounder of the Marathon Initiative, which studies great-power competition, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and H.R. McMaster to discuss his contention that rearming America’s military in anticipation of an eventual Chinese move on Taiwan takes priority over conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Following that: the fellows weigh in on the merits of a forced sale of TikTok by its Chinese owners, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s calling for an early election in Israel, plus how to find one’s soulmate offline (plot spoiler: try attending an intellectual “slap up” dinner, or getting concussed in a rugby match).

Following Super Tuesday’s results, with the US presidential election still the better part of eight months away, a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is all but certain. Victor Davis Hanson, the Hoover Institution’s Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow and author of the soon-to-be-released book The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss where Biden and Trump stand on “shrinkflation” and the US economy, America’s involvement in overseas conflicts, plus the likelihood of Democrats replacing a struggling Biden at their August national convention and Trump running a disciplined campaign despite his legal travails.

Why did Vladimir Putin call for an “inter-Palestinian meeting” in Moscow? And has Israel drawn a red line regarding a hostage release and an assault on the Gazan city of Rafah? Dan Senor, host of the Call Me Back podcast and author of two books on Israel, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson (live from Jerusalem) and John Cochrane to discuss the moving parts and global ramifications of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Following that: remembering the late Alexei Navalny and what the future holds for Russian political opposition amid Putin-brand fascism; America’s “trust” credit rating as it reneges on promises to friends and allies; plus George Washington’s recent demotion to third-greatest of all US presidents.

While the American reprisal against Iranian proxies across the Middle East is impressive in its harnessing of firepower, technology, and intelligence, does it advance the goals of deterrence and de-escalation? Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the pros and cons of the current US strategy and their concerns over the lack of an apparent end game. Following that: a conversation about Donald Trump’s  appeal to voters and his detractors’ inability to understand his populist resonance (the subject of a recent John Cochrane Wall Street Journal op-ed); how best to revitalize African nations; plus Niall’s annual abhorrence of Super Bowl Sunday (spoiler alert: he’s not a “Swiftie”).

This installment of GoodFellows is devoted to audience questions—viewers and listeners putting Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster through their intellectual paces. Among the topics broached: a possible re-embrace of Western heritage; the same pre–World War I mentality that dismissed the likelihood of a global conflict potentially enabling a third world war; India and Pakistan’s economic and geostrategic outlooks; Donald Trump’s second-term objectives, should he be reelected; and Argentinian president Javier Milei’s pro-market “shock therapy” and his World Economic Forum “special address” dressing down Davos attendees. Viewers also asked: Why not a fellows’ blues band? Might Niall consider adding a little profanity to his profundity?

The new year begins with a continuation of three topics that figured prominently in 2023: escalating hostilities in the Middle East; a possible return to more traditional higher education after shake-ups at several elite American universities; plus the uncertainty of certain economic assumptions (in 2023, a much-prophesied recession that never materialized). Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane also discuss the odds of Cold War 2 morphing into World War III; whether economic conditions will overshadow fearmongering in a grim Trump-Biden referendum (in Niall’s words: the choice of “empire or republic”); the best use of this leap year’s spare day; plus why King Charles III would choose to break with tradition by spending a “dry” January in a very wet Scotland.