687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

It may just be being human. Stephen Dubner interviews A.I. performer Tilly Norwood to find out if we are as replaceable as we fear. (Part two of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Sean Astin, actor, president of SAG-AFTRA.Kevin Kelly, co-founder of Wired.Ethan Mollick, associate professor of management at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.Tilly Norwood, A.I. performer.Eline Van der Velden, founder and C.E.O. of Particle6.Joel Waldfogel, economist at the University of Minnesota. RESOURCES:"Quiet, My Exoself," by Kevin Kelly (KK, 2026)."How Large Language Models Are Reshaping the Book Market," by Imke Reimers and Joel Waldfogel (NBER, 2026)."Intellectual Property and Creative Machines," by Gaétan De Rassenfosse, Adam B. Jaffe, and Joel Waldfogel (NBER, 2024).Digital Renaissance: What Data and Economics Tell Us About the Future of Popular Culture, by Joel Waldfogel (2018)."The Random Long Tail and the Golden Age of Television," by Joel Waldfogel (Innovation Policy and the Economy, 2017)."Quality Predictability and the Welfare Benefits From New Products: Evidence From the Digitization of Recorded Music," by Luis Aguiar and Joel Waldfogel (NBER, 2016)."Copyright Protection, Technological Change, and the Quality of New Products: Evidence from Recorded Music since Napster," by Joel Waldfogel (NBER, 2011). EXTRAS:"How to Survive the A.I. Shock," by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."Should A.I. Move to Space?," by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."Are Thousands of Medical Cures Hiding in Plain Sight?," by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."Can A.I. Save Your Life?," by Freakonomics Radio (2026). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Writers, designers, actors, coders, musicians, thinkers — they’re all worried about being replaced by machines. But what if the A.I.s are actually here to help? (Part one of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Sean Astin, actor, president of SAG-AFTRA.Kevin Kelly, co-founder of Wired.Ethan Mollick, associate professor of management at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.Eline Van der Velden, founder and C.E.O. of Particle6. RESOURCES:Co-Existence: The Next Phase of AI, by Ethan Mollick (2026)."Apocalypse Now and Then," by Arundhati Roy (Equator, 2026)."Artificial Intelligence and Its Impact on Creativity and Diversity: An Empirical Study of Large Language Model-Generated Product Ideas," by Christian Terwiesch, Lennart Meincke, Karan Girotra, Ethan Mollick, Gideon Nave, and Karl Ulrich (Production and Operations Management, 2026)."Quiet, My Exoself," by Kevin Kelly (KK, 2026).Co-Intelligence: Living and Working With AI, by Ethan Mollick (2024)."The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development," by Michael Kremer (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1993). EXTRAS:"How to Poison the A.I. Machine," by Freakonomics Radio (2025)."The Curious, Brilliant, Vanishing Mr. Feynman," series by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."How to Think About A.I.," series by Freakonomics Radio (2023)."103 Pieces of Advice That May or May Not Work," by Freakonomics Radio (2022). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

They say they make companies more efficient through savvy management. Critics say they bend the rules to enrich themselves at the expense of consumers and employees. Can they both be right? (Probably not.)  SOURCES:Brendan Ballou, C.E.O. of the Public Integrity Project.Dan Glickberg, venture-capital investor.Hannah Howard, food writer.Sachin Khajuria, investor. RESOURCES:Plunder: Private Equity's Plan to Pillage America, by Brendan Ballou (2023).Two and Twenty: How the Masters of Private Equity Always Win, by Sachin Khajuria (2022)."Local Journalism under Private Equity Ownership," by Michael Ewens, Arpit Gupta, and Sabrina T. Howell (NBER Working Paper, 2022).“Owner Incentives and Performance in Healthcare: Private Equity Investment in Nursing Homes,” by Atul Gupta, Sabrina T. Howell, Constantine Yannelis, and Abhinav Gupta (NBER Working Paper, 2021).“Leveraged Buyouts and Financial Distress,” by Brian Ayash and Mahdi Rastad (Finance Research Letters, 2021). EXTRAS:"Is This What a 'Good Billionaire' Looks Like?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."Is the Public Ready for Private Equity?" by Freakonomics Radio (2025)."Should You Trust Private Equity to Take Care of Your Dog?" by Freakonomics Radio (2023)."Do You Know Who Owns Your Vet?" by Freakonomics Radio (2023)."The Secret Life of a C.E.O.," series by Freakonomics Radio (2018). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

David Rubenstein, a product of the old bipartisan D.C., made his fortune in private equity. He’s been spending it on “patriotic philanthropy” and institutions like the Kennedy Center, where Trump fired him as chairman. Now he wonders if the center can hold. SOURCES:David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-chairman of the Carlyle Group, principal owner of the Baltimore Orioles. RESOURCES:Inside the Owner's Box: Conversations on Power and Leadership in Sports, by David M. Rubenstein (2026).The American Experiment: Dialogues on a Dream, by David M. Rubenstein (2021).The American Story: Conversations With Master Historians, by David M. Rubenstein (2019).Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, by Michael Lewis (2003). EXTRAS:"The Merger You Never Knew You Wanted," by Freakonomics Radio (2025)."The Secret Life of a C.E.O.," series by Freakonomics Radio (2018)."Extra: David Rubenstein Full Interview," by Freakonomics Radio (2018)."The Longest Long Shot," by Freakonomics Radio (2016). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Podcasting started as a niche-nerd pursuit. Now it’s a $9 billion industry. Is that a lot? The strange economics of this thing we do. SOURCES:Jim Bankoff, chairman and C.E.O. of Vox Media.Ben Davis, head of digital at WME.Will Page, former chief economist at Spotify and author of Pivot.Jenna Weiss-Berman, head of Paper Kite Audio and executive producer of Good Hang with Amy Poehler.Jeanine Wright, co-founder and C.E.O. of Liquid Studios (Inception Point AI). RESOURCES:"U.S. AI infrastructure buildout is surpassing every prior investment in American history," by Cris Tolomia (Quartz, 2026)."The AMP Accords," (Alliance for Measurement in Podcasting, 2026)."Owl & Co: Global Podcast Economy Grew 23% To $9.2 Billion In 2025." (Inside Radio, 2026)."James Murdoch to Buy New York Magazine, Other Vox Assets for Around $300 Million," by Isabella Simonetti and Jessica Toonkel (The Wall Street Journal, 2026)."Patreon Says Podcasters Earned $629 Million in 2025, Up 33%, as Platform's Biggest Content Category Keeps Growing," by Todd Spangler (Variety, 2026). EXTRAS:"How to Think About A.I.," series by Freakonomics Radio (2023)."How Spotify Saved the Music Industry (But Not Necessarily Musicians)," by Freakonomics Radio (2019)."Our 100th Episode!" by Freakonomics Radio (2012). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

An economist calls America’s beef industry a “miracle.” An antitrust scholar calls it “broken.” Maybe they’re both right? SOURCES:Austin Frerick, agriculture antitrust expert, fellow at Yale University, author of Barons: Money, Power, and the Corruption of America's Food Industry.Robert Hodgen, C.E.O. of King Ranch.Roger Horowitz, food historian, director of the Center for the History of Business, Technology, and Society at the Hagley Museum and Library.Derrell Peel, Charles Breedlove Professorship of Agribusiness in the department of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University. RESOURCES:"The hamburger story," by Derrell Peel (Beef, 2026)."Trump is letting in 300,000 tons of beef duty-free. Don’t expect cheaper burgers," by Elisabeth Buchwald (CNN, 2026)."DOJ Probes Soaring Beef Prices at Eight Major Stores Including Walmart," by Hugh Cameron (Newsweek, 2026)."Takeaways from the Pause on Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Enforcement," by Brendan Quigley, Bridget Moore, Kyle Clark, and Baker Botts (Harvard Law School, 2025)."Tyson and Leviathan: USDA Rulemaking and the PSA Harm to Competition Requirement," by Spencer James Parts (University of Chicago Business Review, 2022)."Average Price: All Uncooked Ground Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average," (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). EXTRAS:"An Economics Lesson from a Talking Pencil (Update)," by Freakonomics Radio (2025)."The Future of Meat," by Freakonomics Radio (2019). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That’s the question at the heart of a battle between Kalshi and state gambling regulators. As prediction markets boom, there are other questions, too — about insider trading, market manipulation, and whether the public has turned against them. (Part two of a two-part series.)  SOURCES:Gary Gensler, former chair of the S.E.C. and the C.F.T.C.Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi. RESOURCES:"Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?" by Robin Hanson (Journal of Political Philosophy, 2013). EXTRAS:"Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."He Helped Clean Up the Last Crash. Does He See Another One Coming?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi. RESOURCE:"Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026)."Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation," (Kalshi Research, 2026)."Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs," by Robin Hanson (2000)."The Use of Knowledge in Society," by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945). EXTRAS:"The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019)."How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future," by Freakonomics Radio (2016)."The Folly of Prediction," by Freakonomics Radio (2011). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

He was thriving in the N.F.L., but then he decided to focus on mathematics — a subject he now teaches at M.I.T. John walks Stephen Dubner through the whole story, teaches him some blocking techniques, and explains why some infinities are bigger than others. If you'd like to see the video version of Better in Person, you can watch it on YouTube or Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

For decades, teams have tried (and mostly failed) to predict which college quarterbacks will thrive in the pros. Is the science finally catching up? Stephen Dubner speaks with a scout, a psychologist, a data warrior, and a Hall of Fame quarterback who nobody wanted.   SOURCES:Scott Goldman, sports psychologist, owner of the Athletic Intelligence Quotient.Dan Hatman, director of scouting development at the Scouting Academy.Stephen Smith, founder and C.E.O. of Kitman Labs.Kurt Warner, Hall-of-Fame quarterback, N.F.L. Network analyst. RESOURCES:"Head in the game: the impact of cognitive abilities on performance of National Football League quarterbacks," by R. Thomas Boone, Nicholas Zambrotta, Andrew Manocchio, and James Bowman (Frontiers in Psychology, 2025)."The Quarterback Prediction Problem: Forecasting the Performance of College Quarterbacks Selected in the NFL Draft," by Julian Wolfson, Vittorio Addona, Robert Schmicker (Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2011). EXTRAS:"The Merger You Never Knew You Wanted," by Freakonomics Radio (2025)."The Rooney Rule," series by Freakonomics Radio (2024). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.