Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 1-Jul

US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though ended a bit off best levels. Tuesday trading was fairly choppy after market closed out a very strong Q2 on Monday. Senate passed GOP's One Big Beautiful Bill, as largely expected.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels, with the S&P and Nasdaq setting new record closes. It was a fairly quiet session, though there were a few trade headlines of note. It was a fairly light economic day today, with June’s Dallas Fed manufacturing just a bit weaker than forecast.

US equities were higher this week as the S&P 500 broke a streak of two-straight weekly declines. Easing geopolitical tensions and trade updates were a key tailwind this week. However, the reconciliation bill remains a key market overhang.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, as stocks ended near best levels. Much of the focus in the market continues to revolve around the political pressure on the Fed to cut rates, and the potential for Trump to name a Powell successor as early as this summer. Initial jobless claims down 10K w/w to 236K, better than expected and lowest since mid-May. Lots of Fedspeak today, with Chicago's Goolsbee, Governor Barr, Richmond's Barkin, San Francisco's Daly, and Boston's Collins all speaking. 

US equities finished mixed today, with the Dow Jones down 25bps, the S&P500 flat, and the Nasdaq rising 31bps. May new home sales posted a big miss, lowest since October, and weakest May print since 2019. Fed Chair Powell delivered his second day of monetary policy testimony commenting future trade deals may allow the Fed to consider rate cuts. Fed also announced its proposed SLR changes. Today's $70B 5-year note auction stopped through 0.5 bp.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending just off best levels and extending Monday's gains. A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran was the biggest positive, though President Trump offered a rebuke over attacks launched by both sides after the announcement. Meanwhile, in prepared remarks and congressional testimony, Fed Chair Powell largely maintained his wait and see approach to rate cuts.

US equities closed higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. Middle East tensions continue to dominate the headlines. In macro news, the June US flash PMI composite came in ahead of consensus, with manufacturing better, but services cooler.

US equities were mostly higher for the week, recovering some of last week's losses which were largely driven by the Israel-Iran conflict. According to the White House, President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran in an effort to give diplomacy a final chance. Regarding trade developments, a lack of trade deal traction ahead of the 9-Jul reciprocal tariff deadline received some scrutiny.

US equities were narrowly mixed in very choppy Wednesday trading, as stocks ended off best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 ending down 10bps and 3bps, while the Nasdaq rose +13bps. No surprise in FOMC leaving the policy rate unchanged, with the median dot still showing two rate cuts for 2025, though 2026 and 2027 dots saw a hawkish shift. May housing starts fell 9.8% m/m, missing expectations and lowest read since May-20.

US equities were lower in Tuesday trading, stocks a bit off worst levels. Middle East tensions have swung back and were today's biggest overhang on sentiment, though market held up relatively well with major averages all down less than 1%. May retail sales saw a steeper-than-consensus headline drop of 0.9% m/m amid an expected pullback in auto sales.