Evening Market Recap - Thursday, 12-Mar

US equities were down in Thursday trading, just off worse levels. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now pacing for weekly declines. The prevailing market headwinds included hawkish updates around the conflict in Iran and a big backup in yields.

US equities were lower after very choppy Wednesday trading. Stocks were unable to hang onto earlier gains amid more headline volatility around the Iran war and oil prices. There was still not much meaningful progress toward an offramp despite Trump saying today that the US was running out of targets and US, Israeli military officials expecting at least two more weeks of operations.

US equities ended mostly lower Tuesday, well off best levels in choppy trading. Stocks unable to hold onto earlier gains, coming off following afternoon reports Iran has started to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz.

US equities were higher in Monday trading as stocks reversed earlier declines on the latest dovish Iran developments and ended near best levels. Stocks reversed earlier declines after Trump told CBS News that war with Iran could be over soon. The New York Fed's February Survey of Consumer Expectations found median year-ahead inflation expectations dipping slightly to 3.0% while holding at that level for the three- and five-year time horizons.

US equities were lower this week, with the S&P 500 down for a second-straight week, posting its worst performance since late November. The Iran conflict was the big story of the week, with the US and Israel attacking Iran over the weekend and killing Iran's Supreme Leader. The macro resilience theme was upended by Friday's February payrolls report, which showed an ~92K decline, missing consensus for a +55K gain.

US equities finished lower in Thursday trading, though ended off worst levels. Oil closed at its highest since July 2024 but came off best levels on headlines about US relief discussions and China negotiating with Iran for safe tanker passage. Initial jobless claims registered 213K for the latest week, near the 215K consensus and prior 213K (which was revised up from 212K).

U.S. stocks finished higher, led by a rebound in crowded momentum trades and strength across Big Tech, semiconductors, software, and other growth-linked groups, while energy and several consumer-facing areas lagged. Sentiment held up despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty as stronger-than-expected ISM services and a better ADP jobs print reinforced the “resilience” narrative heading into a busy end-of-week data slate, including Friday’s jobs report and retail sales.

US equities finished down in Tuesday trading, though major indices ended well off worst levels. Stocks well off worst levels with market tepidly re-embracing the ignore geopolitics mantra into afternoon trading. No economic data on today's calendar.

US equities were mostly higher in Monday trading, ending a bit off best levels. The market shook off a lot of overnight and morning risk-off sentiment in the wake of the weekend’s US/Israeli attacks on Iran, and Tehran's reprisals. In macro news, February ISM manufacturing printed at 52.4, better than the 51.8 consensus, though a bit below prior month's 52.6

Major US equity indices were lower for the week though breadth was positive, with the Equal weight S&P ending in the green and outperforming the official index by 90 bp. Fear surrounding AI disruption was a key overhang this week. January core PPI was hotter than expected, the highest in nearly four years on a m/m basis.