DHUnplugged #761: Running of The Bulls

GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting Cover Art - Best Ever - Not... New term - QUISHING I gotchooo and Say less PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS  Warm-Up - Cover Art - Best Ever - Not... - New term - QUISHING - I gotchooo and Say less Markets - What a Week! - GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting - MORE ATHs! - Earnings Season Update - Homes - Capital Gains? Cover Art - Can we take a close look at what was AI generated this week? - At least TWO glaring issues ... China - another delay/pause? - President Trump tells reporters on Air Force One that he could meet with Chinese President Xi by the end of the year (???) EU Deal  - Framework of the deal seems done - 15% across the board tariff on EU goods into the US (a couple of exceptions) - Prices for Olive Oil from your favorite region is going up - Some new benefits for US cars into Europe - - If this is all so good for say US car manufactures, why aren't Ford and GM stocks doing anything? Earnings this week of note: - Microsoft (MSFT): Expected to report on July 30, 2025 - Meta Platforms (META): Scheduled to report on July 30, 2025 - Amazon (AMZN): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025 - Apple (AAPL): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025 --- Those 4 companies are 20% of the S&P weighting Earnings Season Update - Overall, 34% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2025 to date. Of these companies, 80% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 75%. - If 80% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the largest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise for a quarter since Q3 2023 (81%). - In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 6.1% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 9.1% and below the 10-year average of 6.9%. Real Estate  - Existing home sales fell 2.7% in June but were unchanged from June 2024. - According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors®, record-high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and a moderate supply are discouraging some potential home buyers, particularly first-time home purchasers. - The median existing-home sale price in June was $435,300, up from the May price of $423,700, and higher than the June 2024 price of $426,900 - Inventory ticked up from a 4.6-month supply in May to 4.7 months in June - Sales of single-family existing homes dipped 3.0% last month. The median single-family existing home price was $441,500 in June, compared to $428,800 in May and $432,900 in June 2024. Quishing - QR codes used to trick people into visiting malicious websites or unknowingly share private information, a scam that has become known as “quishing.” - The increasing prevalence of QR code scams prompted a warning from the Federal Trade Commission earlier this year about unwanted or unexpected packages showing up with a QR code that when scanned “could take you to a phishing website that steals your personal information, like credit card numbers or usernames and passwords. It could also download malware onto your phone and give hackers access to your device.” - There is work being doen to develop a “smart” QR code called a SDMQR (Self-Authenticating Dual-Modulated QR) that has built-in security to prevent scams. But first, he needs buy-in from Google and Microsoft, the companies that build the cameras and control the camera infrastructure. Thoughts? - During a pivotal push by Ukraine to retake territory from Russia in late September 2022, Elon Musk gave an order that disrupted the counteroffensive and dented Kyiv’s trust ...

Back from Vacation - refreshed? Fun with Coldplay! A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing Sugar in the news.... The REAL running of the bulls - bad things happen PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS  Warm-Up - Back from Vacation - refreshed? - Fun with Coldplay! - Sugar in the news.... - The REAL running of the bulls - bad things happen Markets - Earnings Season is here - about to get some big results this week - Some earnings to discuss - A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing - Markets react to Trump/Fed comments - YUGE deal with Japan Market Update Top to Bottom in - Fed - April (2 Months) Bottom to Recovery of Loss -  (2 months) Now overshot and climbing to new ATH DJIA up 4.8% SP500 Up 7.69% NASDAQ up 9% Bitcoin Up 24% Emerging Markets up 24% USD down 10% Gold up 24% Copper up 35% Small Caps up 0.95% Apple DOWN 14% YTD Sectors Staring off: Will the TARIFFS actually go into play on August 1st, 2025??? What to do? - Here we go again... - I heard Adam and Tina coming to Florida next week and I have not heard from them.... -- Now maybe it is nowhere near me - Florida is a big state... (Am I being too sensitive?) - If JCD came to FLA - I would think you would call me.... right? Lessons - Astronomer, the tech company that found itself launched into the public eye after its CEO Andy Byron was spotted on a Jumbotron video at a Coldplay concert last embracing an employee, announced that Byron has been placed on leave. - Astronomer’s cofounder and chief product officer Pete DeJoy is now serving as interim CEO, the company said in a statement Friday night. - “Our leaders are expected to set the standard in both conduct and accountability,” the statement said in part, adding that the company’s board of directors “has initiated a formal investigation into this matter and we will have additional details to share very shortly.” - PEOPLE - think before you do stupid things! NETFLIX Earnings - Netflix posted second-quarter revenue growth of 16% on Thursday after the closing bell. - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, citing “healthy” member growth and ad sales. - Netflix reported revenue of $11.08 billion for the second quarter, higher than Wall Street’s estimates of $11.07 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. -Stock was sold off after - priced to perfection - Netflix’s higher forecast reflects the weakening of the U.S. dollar compared with other currencies as well as “healthy” member growth and ad sales, the company said in a statement. (What happened to constant currency?????) - Off 8% this month, Up 36% YTD Impressive - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on Thursday reported a near 61% year-on-year rise in second-quarter profit, hitting a record high and beating estimates, as demand for artificial intelligence chips stayed strong. - The world’s largest contract chip manufacturer forecast third-quarter revenue between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion — a 38% year-over-year increase and 8% higher from the prior quarter at the midpoint. - - Revenue: 933.80 billion new Taiwan dollars ($31.7 billion), vs. NT$931.24 billion expected - - Net income: NT$398.27 billion, vs. NT$377.86 billion On the Other Hand - ASML warned of the possibility of no growth in 2026, even as it beat top and bottom line expectations for the second quarter. - ASML’s guidance for the current quarter missed expectations while it narrowed its own forecast for the rest of the year. - Shares of the firm ended the day 11.4% lower after the report -  ASML is the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems,

OBBBA written into law! Big week for Coney Island The American Party - Musk taking a shot Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter INTERACTIVE BROKERS  Warm-Up - OBBBA written into law! - Big week for Coney Island - The American Party - Musk taking a shot - Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening - BIG WIN FOR US AT AIRPORTS! Markets - ATH before the July 4th break - Jobs numbers - a bit surprising - Tariff threats are back - full court press is on! -- Letters are going out! - NVDA - History in the making THE WINNER OF THE CTP - Something that never happened before! Earnings Season According to Factset: - During the second quarter, analysts reduced earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by a wider margin than usual. - The bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2—which aggregates the median EPS forecasts for all companies in the index—fell by 4.2%, dropping from $65.55 on March 31 to $62.83 by June 30. - While it’s common for analysts to lower EPS estimates during a quarter, the size of this quarter’s decline stands out. Over the past 5 years (20 quarters), the average quarterly decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate has been 3.0%. - Over the past 10 years (40 quarters), the average drop was 3.1%, and over the past 15 years (60 quarters), it was 3.2%. - Only when looking back 20 years (80 quarters) does the average match this quarter’s 4.2% decline. --- What this means is that easier hurdles to get over for companies that have had their earnings estimates slashed. ELON - On July 5, Musk said he would found an "America Party" as an alternative to the Republican and Democratic parties. Musk says the party will focus on "just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 house districts." - He can't be President, what are his aspirations here? Joey, Joey, Joey - Joey Chestnut on Friday regained his longtime title of champion in the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating contest at New York City's Coney Island after he was banned from the competition last year. - In the 2025 contest, he ate 70.5 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes, totaling roughly 21,150 calories, 1,269 grams of fat, and 48,280 milligrams of sodium Tariffs - After OBBBA - good time to start this up again - Bessent, White House and Navarro are back on the Tariff Trail -  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump will send letters to some trading partners saying tariffs will boomerang back to April 2 levels on Aug. 1 if there is no progress. - Bessent rejected that Aug. 1 is a new trading deadline, but it could still give countries more time to negotiate. Bessent also said that he expects to see “several big announcements over the next couple of days” about trade deals. - Johnny:I am going to count to three! - Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.” - Trump’s announcement, which did not elaborate on any specific policy of BRICS, came as the group’s meeting is underway in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. - Navarro out with his usual tough talk about all countries in the world screwing America on CNBC Monday.. - Trump said he had signed letters to 12 countries outlining the various tariff levels they would face on goods they export to the United States, with the “take it or leave it” offers to be sent out on Monday. OOPS THERE IT IS! - Monday 12PM: President Trump posts letters to Prime Minister of Japan, President of the Republic of Korea outlining 25% tariffs starting August 1}- Sends out a total of 14 letters. Markets miffed, but don't care China and Trade Deal - GE Aerospace has received U.S.

Month/Quarter ends and everything is just peachy Banks got some good news - you can't have a prolonged rally without the financial sector Bond yields soften a bit as Trump closer to Shadow Fed announcement ATH for SP 500 and NAS100 (DJIA and Russ2000 still lagging) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter    Warm-Up - More companies are doing this again.. - Make Showering Great Again! MSGA - - - Twitter Poll - - New ways to buy stocks via tokens - Musk/Trump Feuding Again Markets - Month/Quarter ends and everything is just peachy - Banks got some good news - you can't have a prolonged rally without the financial sector - Bond yields soften a bit as Trump closer to Shadow Fed announcement - ATH for SP 500 and NAS100 (DJIA and Russ2000 still lagging) Historically... - Once we know the pattern - we know what usually happens next! Stocks by Month Circle (CRCL) - MONDAY: Circle reverses ground after initially trading lower on JP Morgan initiation at Underweight and $80 price target. - Note that several analysts' targets came in above $200. - Stock down 15% since we mentioned last week (short idea) Good News for Showering? MSGA - As we know, Trump has railed against modern dishwashers, washing machines, light bulbs, showerheads and toilets, claiming that onerous government regulations render them less effective and more expensive. - On April 9, Trump issued an executive order directing certain federal agencies “to incorporate a sunset provision” into a laundry list of energy production regulations, including those covering appliances. A month later, he issued a memorandum, entitled “Rescission of Useless Water Pressure Standards.” - Following that, on May 12, the Department of Energy announced that it was preparing to eliminate or modify 47 federal regulations “that are driving up costs and lowering quality of life for the American people.” - Many of the rules are covered in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), a decades-old law that mandates energy-efficiency and water-conservation standards for home appliances and plumbing fixtures. - Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency said it is planning to eliminate the Energy Star program, a popular voluntary initiative that manufacturers employ to rank their appliances based on energy conservation and cost savings, displayed on familiar blue labeling at retail as comparison-shopping guides. - Twitter Poll  Twitter Poll Just in.... - Shares of renewable energy companies are rising after a tax on solar and wind was removed from the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Senate narrowly passed the legislation Tuesday and will now be considered by the House of Representatives. The American Clean Power Association had warned that tax would up to $7 billion to the wind and solar industry’s burden. Next Level? - Robinhood launches stock tokens, reveals Layer 2 blockchain, and expands crypto suite in EU and US with perpetual futures and staking - With tokenized stocks, our European app transitions from being a crypto-only app to an all-in-one investment app powered by crypto. - European customers will have access to 200+ US stock and ETF tokens. Stock token holders will also receive dividend payments directly in their app. Big Beautiful - Clears first hurdle in the Senate (procedural) - Needs to get going on the rest if they want to have it signed into legislation by July 4th - Musk very vocal about the fact it is it is "utterly insane" - Musk says: will “destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!” in a post on X. MUSK not happy - Elon does not like the massive spending bill - w...

A parade of pauses WAR! Middle East at it again Oracle earnings - wow! Tesla robotaxi spotted PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter ** Look At Album Art ** - So bad  Warm-Up - More pausing floated - We have a CHYNA deal -  kind of - Saying goodbye to Brian Wilson - Tesla - back in buy mode Markets - War! Middle East again (US seems to be helping ?) - Within 2% if ATH and then... - Oracle blows the roof off - UK economy shrinks - bigly ***A NEW Closest to the Pin! Middle East Again - Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran early Friday morning local time, targeting locations it said were related to Iran’s nuclear program, sparking market fears of a wider conflict. - Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, chief of the Iranian Armed Forces and the country’s most senior military official, was killed during the strikes, alongside the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, Iranian state media reported. - The Israeli airstrikes also targeted and killed two of Iran’s leading nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, according to Iranian news outlets. - Odd timing? - Markets initially took it better than expected - until Iran stuck back Valuations - As of the most recent update on June 5, 2025, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 21.70. This reflects a decline from 22.44 in the previous quarter and 25.20 one year ago, 10 -year average is about 19 PE Forward Chart Something we discussed on TDI  - Presidential Cycles - The U.S. stock market tends to follow a four-year cycle aligned with presidential terms. Historically, the first year of a president’s second term (4 years apart in this case) often mirrors the first year of a new presidency in terms of market behavior—marked by uncertainty, policy re-calibration, and sometimes muted performance - While the first half of the first year can be choppy due to post-election adjustments and early policy moves, the second half—especially Q4—has historically shown stronger performance. This is often attributed to: Stabilizing policy direction after early-year volatility Investor optimism around fiscal planning and budget cycles Seasonal tailwinds like the holiday rally and year-end portfolio rebalancing Presidential Cycle UK Economy- This is why we need to dig further than the headline (more beneath the surface) - The U.K. economy shrank sharply in April as global trade tariffs and domestic tax rises kicked in, data showed Thursday. - The latest monthly growth figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the U.K. economy contracted 0.3% month on month in April, following growth of 0.2% in March. - It was also more than the 0.1% fall economists were expecting. - “After increasing for each of the four preceding months, April saw the largest monthly fall on record in goods exports to the United States with decreases seen across most types of goods, following the recent introduction of tariffs,” --- The real culprit: ----- Domestic tax rises have also been blamed for the steep decline in economic activity. British businesses have been confronted with an increase in national insurance contributions and rise in the minimum age from the start of April, while a temporary tax break on property purchases also came to an end in March. - ----The change in the Stamp Duty Land Tax (paid when buying property or land) in April meant there was a decrease of 63.5% in U.K. residential property transactions from the previous month, the ONS noted, with buyers rushing to complete purchases before the tax break ended. US Economy - U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in...

Plenty of Buy-the-Dip excitement Trial Balloons - Next Fed Chair thoughts Excitement over China talks PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Trial Balloons - Next Fed Chair - Everyone loves to hate China these days - Trump and Musk breakup - Your DNA may be for sale Markets - Retail shares have wide earnings outcomes - Plenty of Buy-the-Dip excitement - Excitement over China talks - Lutnik is showing the thumb-up - Who is buying? Powell Replacement - President Trump considering naming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after his term ends in May 2026, according to Bloomberg - Just floating the idea (Trial balloon) at this point - YES! --- Proof - Wait 45 minutes: - White House official tells Reuters that Bloomberg reporting is "false" that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is being considered for Fed Chair China - Everyone loves to hate - China’s May factory activity unexpectedly shrinks as tariffs dent sentiment — worst drop since 2022 - China’s manufacturing activity in May shrank at its fastest pace since September 2022, a private survey showed Tuesday, as a sharper decline in new export orders highlighted the impact of prohibitive U.S. tariffs. - The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.3, missing Reuters’ median estimate of 50.6 and dropping sharply from 50.4 in April. It fell below 50, the mark that separates growth from contraction, for the first time since September last year. China Eco Who is Buying and Selling? - When President Donald Trump set off a global stock market slump in April with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs, small investors across Asia rushed to the US stock market to buy the dip. -Retail investors in South Korea turned net sellers of US equities in May for the first time since before Trump’s election victory, while Japanese accounts became net sellers of US exchange-traded funds, according to official data. - The number of Singapore traders buying US stocks fell by a quarter in May from the previous period. Trump Musk Divorce (Mutual Assured Destruction) - Trump says Elon Musk went ‘CRAZY,’ suggests cutting government contracts for his companies - “The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. ”I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!” - Trump wished Elon "very well" in a presser on Monday night - “I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!” Trump wrote in the social media post. -- Musk fired back with pictures of Trump with Jeffrey Epstein and backed impeachment - “I asked him to leave,” Trump claimed. Musk called that “an obvious lie.” - - - - Does either one of these guys know the truth from a lie? -- Telsa stock dove harder than Trump's ratings post election on the spat BUT BUT - Wasn't the point of hiring Musk and the DOGE to reduce waste, fraud and abuse? - - Lots of positive thoughts on the job he was doing - Now that he found waste in the Big Beautiful Bill - he is banished??? Palantir CEO - CEO Alex Karp said the artificial intelligence arms race between the U.S. and China will culminate in one country coming out on top. - “My general bias on AI is it is dangerous,” Karp told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday. “There are positive and negative consequences, and either we win or China will win.” - Either way - Palantir wins - right? Select Retail

People are catching on - Fed has no clue Investors are nervous - lots of intraday volatility Correction - could it be? USA- Going DEEPER into debt DOGE - already making excuses PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - People are catching on - Fed has no clue - Investors are nervous - lots of intraday volatility - Correction - could it be? - USA- Going DEEPER into debt - DOGE - already making excuses - Next Monday - Market Holiday and Inauguration day Markets - No happy - inflation and jobs (A 1-2 Punch for markets) - CPI and PPI this week - make it or break it? - Rates hitting key resistance - Oil spikes - multi-month high All of a sudden.. - Microsoft, Facebook and other companies are cutting staff again - Talk of tough year ahead... What is up? If they don't cooperate? - Cut their pay! - China is set to slash pay for staff at its top three financial regulators, including the central bank, by about half, as part of a regulatory revamp unveiled in 2023 to bring their salaries in line with other civil servants - Starting from this month, staff at the People's Bank of China (PBOC), National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) and China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will see total income slashed by about half. More China - Pull Forward - China’s trade data in December beat expectations by a large margin, with exporters continuing to frontload shipments as worries over additional tariffs mount, while the country’s stimulus measures appear to be supporting demand in the industrial sector. - Can it last? Let's Talk Turkey - Fed has no idea what is going on - They simply can move markets, (equity and fixed income) by liquefying markets - HOPE that they have the general trend and can regulate the flow so not overheat or overcool - In reality, their forecasting tools are crap --- BUT, focus on what they do, not what they say or their outlook Employment Numbers - Summary: Nonfarm payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 256,000, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, average hourly earnings growth year-over-year was a sturdy 3.9%, and more people were employed. - Much better than anticipated ! - Unemployment rate drops - So, we see higher prices and better employment - markets spooked that Fed out of touch - One-Two punch for equities Result - Steepening yield curve Market Sell-off - NASDAQ 100 off 6% from the highs - Big names down more (NVDA 13%, Tesla 18%, Apple 10%, NFLX 10%) - SOOOO - Big Cap Tech is in a correction and dragging down markets - Markets are in the RED for the year and unchanged/under the pre-election day move. - More speculative (runners) stocks are down even more... Quantum Stocks - DUH! - Sell-off deepened as Zuck cautioned that the potential is still years (and years) away (on Joe Rogan Show) --- Zuck looking like he wants to follow in Elon's footsteps Quantum Stocks More Zuck - Bashing Apple... - No innovation, random rules - "So how are they making more money as a company? Well, they do it by basically, like, squeezing people, and, like you're saying, having this 30% tax on developers by getting you to buy more peripherals and things that plug into it," Zuckerberg said. "You know, they build stuff like Air Pods, which are cool, but they've just thoroughly hamstrung the ability for anyone else to build something that can connect to the iPhone in the same way." Oh - and this... - Meta on Friday told employees that its plans to end a number of internal programs designed to increase the company's hiring of diverse candidates, the latest dramatic change ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's second Wh...