The OBR on the Budget leak & why they're always wrong

Tim Shipman sits down with Professor David Miles of the Office for Budget Responsibility the day after a Budget overshadowed by an extraordinary leak. David sets out what the OBR now believes about growth, headroom and productivity — and why the UK’s long-term prospects look weaker than hoped. He discusses the political choices behind back-loaded tax rises, the decision not to score the workers’ rights reforms, and why Britain is so slow to adopt its own inventions. Plus: what the OBR’s new leak investigation will look like, and how confident we should really be in those fiscal forecasts.Produced by Oscar Edmondson. Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Budget days go, today was unprecedented. The complete list of measures announced by Rachel Reeves – along with their costings and economic impacts – was leaked by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) an hour before the Chancellor took to her feet. The OBR apologised and called it a ‘technical error’.The headline is tax hikes to the tune of £26 billion, income tax thresholds will be frozen again and the tax burden will hit a record high at 38 per cent of GDP. Was this the most farcical Budget in history?Michael Simmons speaks to James Heale and Tim Shipman.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

James Nation, managing director at Forefront Advisers, and Michael Simmons join James Heale to analyse what we know, one day ahead of the Budget. James – a former Treasury official and adviser to Rishi Sunak – takes us inside Number 11, explains the importance of every sentence and defends the Budget as a fiscal event. Plus, Michael takes us through the measures we know so far – but is the chaotic process we've seen so far just symptomatic of 'broken Britain'?Produced by Patrick Gibbons.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Britain has an energy problem – while we produce some of the cleanest in the world, it's also the most expensive, and that's the case for almost every avenue of energy. On the day the Spectator hosts its Energy Summit in Westminster, a report commissioned by the Prime Minister has found that the UK is the most expensive place to produce nuclear energy. This is important for so many avenues of government – from future proofing for climate change, to reducing the burden households are facing through the cost-of-living crisis.Claire Coutinho, shadow secretary of state for energy, and political editor Tim Shipman join economics editor Michael Simmons to talk about tackling Britain's energy crisis and how energy policy could feed into Labour's budget in two days time. Plus, as the only shadow minister to retain the same brief following the 2024 general election, Claire reveals her reflections on climate and energy policy, including reaffirming the Conservatives desire to tackle climate change but arguing that the target of net zero now does seem 'perverse'. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Isabel Hardman presents highlights from Sunday morning's political shows. This week, Labour’s crucial budget is almost here, and Trump’s peace plan causes alarm in Ukraine.Produced by Joe Bedell-Brill.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Chris Curtis and Maxwell Marlow may have different political ideologies, but they agree on one key diagnosis: Britain is broken. Their solution can be found on baseball caps and bucket hats across social media and SW1: ‘Build Baby Build’. Less than a week before the Budget, Chris – MP for Milton Keynes and chair of the Labour Growth Group – and Maxwell – policy fellow of the Yimby Initiative, alongside his day job at the Adam Smith Institute – join our economics editor Michael Simmons to talk about the pro-growth measures they champion to radically change Britain.Produced by Patrick Gibbons. Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Yesterday we had the publication of the second module of the Covid Inquiry on the decision-making at the heart of government. It confirmed a toxic and disorganised culture at the heart of No. 10 and the headline is that the government acted ‘too little, too late’, costing as many as 23,000 lives in England.That figure is already disputed, not least by our economics editor Michael Simmons who argues on the podcast that the inquiry is a ‘disgrace’ and demonstrates a lack of domain knowledge about the limitations of modelling. Where else does the inquiry fall short? What will be the political ramifications in Westminster?James Heale speaks to Michael Simmons and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

While we wait for the findings of the Covid Inquiry into the decision-making during the pandemic, Shabana Mahmood has given a statement in the Commons outlining further details of Labour’s migration crackdown. The headline is that those who arrived during the so-called ‘Boriswave’ will have to wait up to 20 years before achieving settled status.Figures within Reform are having fun with the suggestion that the Home Secretary is more aligned with them on migration, but it is perhaps fairer to say that Shabana is taking her cues from the Blue Labour movement. What is Blue Labour? And is Shabana Blue Labour?Oscar Edmondson speaks to Isabel Hardman and Paul Embery.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Neither Kemi Badenoch nor Keir Starmer performed very well at Prime Minister’s Questions: both fluffed their lines early on. Badenoch managed to suggest the Budget had already happened, while Starmer got lost during an attack on Tory economic policy. But while Badenoch was back to the kind of poor delivery that had previously upset so many of her Conservative colleagues, Starmer still came off worse.The most interesting exchange was with Reform Chief Whip Lee Anderson, who goaded Starmer to ‘be a man’ and ensure that all the cancelled local elections go ahead next year. This facilitated an exchange about recent allegations regarding Nigel Farage’s behaviour when he was a schoolboy. Is this one going to follow the Reform leader around? And how do you actually pronounce ‘Farage’?Lucy Dunn speaks to Isabel Hardman and James Heale.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Economics editor Michael Simmons and Yvette Cooper's former adviser Danny Shaw join Patrick Gibbons to react to the Home Secretary's plans for asylum reform. Shabana Mahmood's direct communication style in the Commons yesterday has been praised by government loyalists and right-wingers alike, but her plans have been criticised by figures on the left as apeing Reform. Will her calculated risk pay off and how will success be judged?Plus, as ONS migration figures are revised – again – Michael restates his appeal for more reliable data. And how could migration data affect the budget next week?Produced by Patrick Gibbons.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: [email protected] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.