Worlds Apart? The U.S. and Israel on Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon

As the U.S. led war with Iran approaches its fourth month, poised somewhere between escalation and a possible diplomatic off ramp, no relationship has been more important than the Trump administration’s with Israel. Are American and Israeli tactics and strategy on Iran unaligned, if not fundamentally at odds? What about on Lebanon and Gaza? And where does the relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu stand, especially as Israel heads toward critical elections this fall?  Join Aaron David Miller as engages the Institute for National Security Studies’ Danny Citrinowicz in a wide-ranging conversation analyzing the current state of the alliance and where the U.S.-Israel relationship goes from here, on Carnegie Connects.

President Donald Trump is in Beijing for a delayed but much anticipated summit with China's President Xi Jinping. A successful meeting—let alone a functional and effective relationship with Beijing—will depend on America reading Xi's China right.  Beyond avoiding war with Washington, what does Xi want in his relationship with the United States? How do issues like the U.S. war with Iran, differences on Taiwan, and relations with Russia shape Xi's strategy? And what are America's core interests in its China's policy?  Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with David Rennie, the Economist's geopolitics editor, author of The Telegram column, and former bureau chief in Beijing, on the next Carnegie Connects.

Cuba has presented a long-standing dilemma for American foreign policymakers. The nation was at the center of the most fraught moment in recent American history, bringing the U.S. and former Soviet Union to the cusp of nuclear during the Cuban Missile Crisis. In the decades since, U.S. presidents have continued to struggle to create an effective their policy for engaging with a Castro-dominated Cuba. Now, President Trump has declared “Cuba is next,” implying that the country could be the administration’s latest target.  Why has the Cuba puzzle been so hard to solve? What policy makes the most sense to advance U.S. interests, and presents an opportunity for a bipartisan consensus? How have domestic politics—particularly the views of the Cuban-American community—shaped American policy?  Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the University of Miami’s Michael Bustamante and Ricardo Zuniga of Dinámica Americas in a broad ranging conversation on the past, present, and future of U.S.-Cuba relations, on Carnegie Connects.

Brokered by Pakistan, the United States and Iran have agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire, dependent on an American condition that Iran agrees to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has also agreed to cease strikes on Iran, but its campaign in Lebanon continues. Can this agreement hold? After six weeks of conflict, why did the parties agree now?  What can we expect from the negotiations ahead, and what are the chances of a resumption of the war or a comprehensive agreement to end it?    Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Brookings Institution Suzanne Maloney and the Institute for National Security Studies Danny Citrinowicz  in a broad ranging conversation on the Iran war and whether we will soon see meaningful negotiations or a return to conflict, on the next Carnegie Connects.

Seven weeks into the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and with an uneasy ceasefire in place, it may be too early to predict conclusive winners and losers. How are Russia and China, two of Iran’s closet allies, faring in the balance sheet as the war drags on? And what of Europe, especially France, Germany, and Britain, who appeared blindsided by the war are now under pressure to support the United States’ war aims? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Carnegie’s Rosa Balfour, Evan Feigenbaum, and Alexander Gabuev to unpack how these major powers are relating to the current conflict and how the Trump administration is responding to them, on Carnegie Connects.

More than one month in, the United States and Israel’s war against Iran has resulted in what the International Energy Agency termed the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” Iran’s ability to control what passes through the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted a fifth of the world's daily oil supply, along with the flow of other commodities such as helium, liquid natural gas, and fertilizer, adding to inflationary pressures globally.  Prospects for a diplomatic exit look bleak and military options to fully open the Strait presents formidable challenges. So, what does the current crisis portend for the global supply of oil and hydrocarbons? Who are the big winners and losers as the world tries to adapt to energy market disruptions? And what lessons, if any, can be drawn from the unfolding crisis? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Helima Croft, head of Global Commodity Strategy and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Research at RBC Capital Markets, on the current crisis and the future of oil and hydrocarbons, on Carnegie Connects.

The Trump Administration’s war against Iran has highlighted one of the stranger paradoxes of America’s longstanding relationship with Israel—at a time when Israel’s image in the United States is at low point, cooperation and coordination with Washington has reached an all-time high. One would be hard pressed to identify any large-scale U.S. miliary campaign in decades in which there has been greater partnership between allies.  Is the foundation of this alliance —common and shared values; a high coincidence of interests; and strong base of domestic support — under stress? What of the relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump? And what does the future of the relationship hold for US and Israeli interests in a complex and volatile region?  Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Middle East Institute’s Yael Lempert, Princeton’s Daniel Kurtzer, and the Atlantic Council’s Daniel Shapiro, three former U.S. ambassadors to the region with deep experience on the U.S.-Israeli relationship, on the next Carnegie Connects.  

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched military, cyber, and intelligence operations against Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed and strikes were conducted on a broad array of targets, including other senior Iranian leadership compounds, IRGC bases, and missile launchers and production facilities. In response, Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles against U.S. bases, Israel and countries in the Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar.  With no signs of the conflict winding down and unclear goals and timelines from leadership in Washington, where is this war headed? Was there ever a serious prospect for negotiations between the United States and Iran? What is the likely impact of the death of Ayatollah Khamenei on succession and the stability of the regime? Is meaningful and lasting regime change or transformation possible?  Join Aaron David Miller as engages with the Brooking Institution’s Suzanne Maloney, International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez, and Yale University’s Rob Malley on these and other Iran-related issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

Four years on from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war drags on, seemingly with no end in sight. The enormity and scale of death and destruction seem unfathomable, with a front line stretching 750 miles and little indication that either side has fundamentally altered the military balance of power. Negotiation under U.S. auspices in various venues and formats continue with no sign that any diplomatic pathway is imminent.  What is the likely trajectory on the battlefield in 2026? Can Russian President Vladimir Putin wage war without end? What of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s politics and policies, including a potential upcoming election? And does the Trump Administration have a strategy to reach a ceasefire, let alone an end to the war, and on what terms?   Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Eric Ciaramella, a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a nonresident scholar in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program and former defense minister of Ukraine, and Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, in a wide-ranging discussion of Russia’s war against Ukraine four years on, on the next Carnegie Connects.

A year into President Donald Trump’s second term, the state and fate of the American Republic is uncertain and precarious.  At home, an unprecedented expansion of presidential power has undermined norms and institutions and threatened democratic governance. American politics remain polarized, taking on a tribal and personal character with disagreements often cast as struggles between good and bad. And abroad, the administration’s pursuit of an “America first” policy has undermined the trust of traditional allies and opened up opportunities for U.S. adversaries.What can Americans expect from the next three years of the Trump administration? What should allies be preparing for given an increasingly expansionist and aggressive U.S. foreign policy? And what are the obligations and responsibilities of citizens during these difficult times?  Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Pulitzer Prize winning author and The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.