Portfolio Construction, Power Laws and Fund Differentiation in Venture Capital - E623

Jeremy Au, Shiyan Koh, and Dmitry Levit dissect the collapse of eFishery, the breakdown of Indonesia’s growth narrative, and the systemic risks that resurface in Southeast Asia’s venture ecosystem. They explore how IPO failures and inequality capped consumer demand, why bad faith actors gained visibility, and how boom-era fads like embedded lending and play to earn unraveled. Their discussion highlights how funding has reset to 2016 levels, why board oversight is crucial, and where opportunities in agritech and supply chain digitization still remain. 06:07 Unicorn Religion and Reset: Dmitry explains how the belief in Southeast Asia’s consumer population created artificial unicorns, attracted global capital, and birthed a generation of investors dependent on unicorn rounds. With that narrative now broken, funding has reset to 2016 levels. 14:25 Indonesia’s Narratives Collapse: Once built on consumer growth and SME digitization, Indonesia’s investment stories unraveled after weak IPO results and late-stage funding pullback. This led to the retreat of corporates and VCs, shrinking available capital. 20:14 Redefining the Middle Class: Dmitry critiques World Bank definitions, pointing out that Indonesia’s true “digital middle class” is closer to 12–20 million spending users, not 70 million. This smaller but wealthier segment supports realistic billion-dollar outcomes. 23:24 Bad Faith Actors and Fraud: The eFishery scandal highlighted systemic risks in Indonesia’s ecosystem. Dmitry frames it as long-standing misaligned incentives—founders chasing salaries or secondaries—surfacing explosively rather than new corruption. 27:18 Embedded Fintech Debate: Jeremy calls out poorly governed lending arms disguised as platform metrics. Dmitry and Shiyan counter that embedded finance, if properly structured, remains one of the most capital-efficient models in Southeast Asia. 30:35 Capital Efficiency Lessons: Dmitry shares research showing the most efficient companies in Southeast Asia were fintech enablers or platforms layering financial services. These delivered 7x–12x returns on invested capital, shaping their core investment thesis. 37:49 Profitable but Overlooked Players: Despite noise about failed IPOs, Dmitry highlights a dozen Southeast Asian companies quietly positioned for billion-dollar exits, already attracting $300–400M investments from North Asia and Latin America. Watch, listen or read the full insight at  https://www.bravesea.com/blog/dmitry-levit-shiyan-koh-efishery-fraud-reset Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Vietnamese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts

Jeremy Au explored how talent, policy, and capital flows shape startup ecosystems across Southeast Asia, India, and China. The discussion covered talent strengths and weaknesses across countries, the role of industrial policy and government subsidies, the challenges of building large language models outside the US and China, and the impact of US China geopolitical tensions on venture capital flows. 01:18 Southeast Asia talent rankings: Jeremy explains Asia Partners’ view that Singapore and Indonesia rank higher in talent, while Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia sit in the middle, and Thailand lags. 04:01 Quick commerce lessons: He compares how India’s delivery startups slowed timelines to survive, showing why founders must adapt to market development levels. 05:10 TSMC and industrial policy: Jeremy highlights Taiwan’s deliberate investment in semiconductors as a case study of state-driven strategy creating global champions. 07:30 Policy shapes business: He outlines the chain: “Policy leads to law, law leads to business, and business leads to everything else.” 15:08 Sequoia’s split: Jeremy explains how US–China tensions and new rules like reverse CFIUS forced Sequoia to separate its US, China, and Southeast Asia/India arms. Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/talent-gaps-rising Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Vietnamese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts

Jeremy Au explored why venture capitalists hunt unicorns and how Southeast Asia fits into this global race. He discussed the Asia Partners golden age thesis, the importance of technology stack progression, and how localization shapes billion dollar outcomes. The conversation compared the US, China, India, and Southeast Asia, broke down country strategies, and examined how ideas migrate across ecosystems. 03:10 Golden Age Thesis: Asia Partners argues Southeast Asia is entering a golden age as GDP growth enables tech ecosystems to flourish. 06:00 Technology Stack and Localization: China sped through decades of development, while Southeast Asia companies like Grab had to adapt ride hailing to local gaps such as drivers without smartphones. 09:20 Copy and Localize Models: Founders replicate proven ideas such as Uber or e commerce while tailoring them to Southeast Asia’s conditions. 12:15 Fragmented Markets: Southeast Asia is not a single region but a patchwork of cities and countries, making scaling strategies complex. 14:10 Three Paths to Unicorns: Indonesia only giants such as GoJek, regional players like Ninja Van and Shopee, and Vietnam conglomerates like VNG. Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/capital-calls-vs-returns Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Vietnamese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts

Jeremy Au and an anonymous guest discuss the challenges of pursuing career opportunities in the United States from Singapore. They talk about how visa rules limit options, why overseas LinkedIn applications often fail, and the appeal of Silicon Valley’s innovation cycles. They also cover cultural differences that require stronger self-promotion, and why resilience is needed when adapting to life abroad. 03:03 LinkedIn job applications feel slow and ineffective: By the time roles are posted, they may already be filled, and rejections arrive quickly 12:52 Graduate programs bring uncertainty: Even Ivy League graduates face high unemployment, making MBAs and master’s degrees a risky bet 16:03 Financial expertise is a strength: Skills like FP&A and CFA provide a clear value proposition to startups seeking structured knowledge 17:40 Silicon Valley offers faster innovation cycles: It draws high-risk, high-reward talent, with constant new waves from VR to crypto to AI 27:42 Cultural norms are different: U.S. workplaces expect stronger self-marketing and bold salesmanship, unlike Southeast Asia’s modest approach 35:02 Relocation requires resilience: Those who prefer routine must adapt to chosen and unchosen struggles when moving abroad Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/southeast-asia-move-to-silicon-valley Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Vietnamese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts

Jeremy Au broke down how venture capital funds design LP decks, allocate capital, and differentiate themselves in competitive markets. The discussion covered portfolio construction math, capital call strategy, the role of opportunity funds, and how funds highlight unique value-adds like founder wellness programs. 02:12 Capital Calls and Timing Funds usually deploy half their capital in the first two years, with follow-ons between years two to five, balancing liquidity with legal cost efficiency. 04:15 Marking Winners and Power Laws Most of a fund’s value, about 60 to 75 percent, often comes from one breakout company, driving the case for raising opportunity funds to double down. 07:27 Signaling with Follow-On Investors A strong follow-on rate signals quality to LPs. “If your companies are all Ds and shit, then nobody’s gonna come in.” Watch, listen or read the full insight at  https://www.bravesea.com/blog/inside-lp-deck Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Vietnamese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts

Jeremy Au and Jianggan explore why China business environment is locked in cycles of over-competition that destroy margins and push firms to seek growth abroad. They trace how JD, Meituan, and Alibaba’s food delivery war escalated into billions of yuan in subsidies, why regulators hesitate to intervene, and how clusters like Shenzhen and Hangzhou still thrive despite intense rivalry. Their discussion highlights collapsing product margins, subsidy-driven chaos in the EV sector, and the role of provincial governments in fueling excessive competition. They also examine how talent migration and generational shifts are reshaping workforce dynamics, with younger Chinese workers increasingly prioritizing lifestyle and aspirations over hardship-heavy careers. 00:24 Over-competition defined daily life in China: Companies copied each other’s hardware and burned billions on subsidies in food delivery, bubble tea, and coffee. 02:49 JD, Meituan, and Alibaba escalated into a price war: Subsidies wiped out profits and locked companies into a prisoner’s dilemma. 07:11 Government offered mixed signals: Some regulators praised subsidies for boosting consumption while others warned about disruption. 13:04 Hardware margins collapsed quickly: AI note-taking devices saw profits fall from 20 percent to 1 percent within a year as competitors rushed in. 15:35 EV industry showed subsidy-driven chaos: BYD slashed prices by 25 percent, alarming regulators who feared smaller firms would be wiped out. 18:58 Shenzhen and Hangzhou emerged as key clusters: They benefited from policy support, inertia, and government backing for overseas expansion. 23:59 Younger workers demanded balance: Unlike older generations, they sought personal aspirations and resisted hardship-heavy roles abroad. Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/jianggan-li-china-price-wars Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Vietnamese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts

Jeremy Au and Gita Sjahrir unpack Indonesia’s turbulence, from corruption scandals and startup economic uncertainty due to the collapse of eFishery. They contrast Singapore’s stability with Indonesia’s volatility, explore how weak rule of law erodes trust, and discuss how scandals damage both founders and investors. They also analyze the role of boards, GPs, and operating partners in strengthening Southeast Asia’s startup ecosystem. 02:00 Corruption scandals seem to show political motivation: The Tom Lembong case introduced the charge of “potential loss to the state,” which was never proven, and targeted him while other ministers who made similar decisions were left untouched. 04:46 Public mistrust deepens: Indonesians question whether corruption cases are genuine, ploys, or selective prosecutions, and many view them as witch hunts that worsen the disconnect between government and citizens. This has resulted in street protests. 09:19 Economic data raises skepticism: Official growth figures of above 5 percent confused the public, as weak indicators like falling auto sales, rising unemployment, and declining foreign direct investment suggest economic hardship is the reality. 12:12 Central bank cuts interest rates: The surprise decision was a move to boost growth to increase domestic investments and spending. Observers argued that transparency and equal rule of law remain the true foundation for long-term capital flows. 15:07 eFishery founder detained by Indonesia police: The founder’s detention followed a public Bloomberg interview in which he admitted to misconduct, reinforcing concerns that the scandal severely damaged trust in Indonesia’s startup scene. Law enforcement may improve public trust and deter bad-faith actors 19:33 Investor reaction turns punitive: Indonesia founders are asked to show profitability very early, to hit one million ARR within their first year, and to give up more than 20 percent equity even before a Series A. 28:17 VC operating partner model is missing: Unlike private equity, Southeast Asian venture capital rarely employs experienced operating partners - to support founders directly or fill board seats, leaving a gap in hands-on help and corporate governance. Watch, listen or read the full insight at  https://www.bravesea.com/blog/gita-sjahrir-indonesia-trust-crisis Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Vietnamese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts

Jeremy Au and DJ Tan sit down to discuss how Prefer grew from a bold bean-free coffee experiment into a flavor house tackling climate-threatened ingredients. They explore the evolution from naive product launches to customer-driven adoption, why B2B positioning makes more sense than B2C in food tech, and how shifting investor expectations shaped their fundraising strategy. Their conversation covers product development cycles with baristas, the science of replicating flavors like coffee and chocolate, and how climate change is forcing businesses to rethink supply chains. DJ also shares lessons on storytelling, scaling options, and the importance of founder transparency when building trust with investors. 02:28 Founding Mission Expands: Prefer was co-founded in 2022 with the mission to make coffee without beans and has since expanded into chocolate while building towards a broader sustainable flavor house. 04:25 Customer Adoption Through Blends: Cafe partners showed reluctance to add a completely new menu item so Prefer gained traction by becoming part of blends such as cappuccinos with ten percent inclusion instead of selling as a separate bean-free option. 09:19 Messaging Shifts to Flavor House: Messaging evolved from pitching only bean-free coffee to presenting Prefer as a flavor house once traction with coffee and chocolate proved product market fit. 16:12 Designing for Applications: Coffee used in cocktails, tiramisu, iced cans or espresso requires different flavor formulations and the R and D team now designs products to fit specific applications. 19:38 Climate Change Disrupts Supply: Climate change has created volatility in coffee, cocoa, vanilla, hazelnut and citrus supplies with events like a blight wiping out most of Florida’s orange harvest and forcing shifts in supermarket juice offerings. 24:05 B2B Model Prevails Over B2C: The B2C experiments validated that consumers were unwilling to pay premiums but B2B customers valued Prefer for protecting margins, supply continuity and preventing shrinkflation. 37:30 Fundraising with Clear Milestones: DJ emphasized raising funds by starting with the end in mind asking investors what metrics will matter in 18 months and working towards those clear goals. Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/dj-tan-brewing-without-beans Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Vietnamese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts

Kristie Neo and Jeremy Au compare Southeast Asia and the Middle East, exploring how mood shifts, tariffs, scandals, and cultural codes are shaping technology and finance. They discuss Southeast Asia’s dampened atmosphere after 2021, the role of sovereign wealth in the Middle East, and how generational challenges meet an AI-driven job market. Their conversation unpacks scandals like eFishery, co-founder disputes in Vietnam, startup archetypes in Southeast Asia, and the global expansion of Chinese firms. They close by reflecting on how organizational cultures differ across regions and why code-switching leaders succeed. 04:20 Kristie reflects on returning from a year in the Middle East and noticing how Singapore’s CBD felt “like a wet blanket” compared to the optimism she had seen abroad. She explains that sovereign wealth still fuels Middle Eastern investments, while Southeast Asia is adjusting to the reality that 2021’s boom years were not normal. 07:59 Jeremy and Kristie discuss how tariffs and slipping oil prices weigh on both regions. Southeast Asia is forced into restructuring as global trade slows, while the Middle East faces pressure on sovereign wealth funds. They agree that uncertainty is dampening growth and making fundraising harder for local fund managers. 09:06 Kristie highlights how fund managers now avoid hiring fresh graduates, preferring experienced talent as AI tools allow smaller and leaner teams. She points out Gen Z’s overreliance on ChatGPT, while Jeremy adds that pandemic-era remote learning left many under-socialized and struggling with basic workplace norms and meeting etiquette. 33:27 Kristie recounts the Alterno co-founder dispute in Vietnam, where founder Kent Nguyen accused his partners of forcing him out after building a patented sand thermal battery. Legal battles followed, investors stepped back, and public allegations mounted on both sides. Jeremy frames this as part of the normal startup cycle where most companies fail through co-founder conflict and lack of governance, especially when investors hold only safe notes. 39:19 Jeremy outlines five main startup archetypes in Southeast Asia. The first are regional connectors that link countries. The second are local conglomerates building multiple businesses. The third are consumer plays for the rising middle class. The fourth are global-facing ventures with Southeast Asia exposure. The fifth are pure tech companies such as SaaS or crypto. Kristie observes that Chinese consumer brands are also pushing aggressively into Southeast Asia with marketing scale and price competitiveness. Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/engineering-soft-landings Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Vietnamese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts

Rob Liu, Founder of ContactOut, and Jeremy Au dive into the realities of building a profitable SaaS business, the myths of venture capital, and the role of lifelong learning. Rob shares how he scaled ContactOut by stacking insights from competitors, why bootstrapping gave him more control, and how he now invests in young founders. Their conversation also explores his shift from chasing wealth to pursuing impact, his family’s role in the journey, and the brave choice that defined his career. 05:23 Bootstrapping versus venture capital: By focusing on recruiter data, ContactOut secured a foothold and achieved 70 percent margins without outside funding. Rob contrasts this with VC-backed peers who scaled faster but gave up equity, comparing venture capital to credit card debt that adds confusion more than growth. 08:56 Wealth lessons from small businesses: Rob notes that many traditional entrepreneurs, like car dealership or farm owners, often end up wealthier than startup founders because steady profits compounded over years can match billion-dollar exits. 11:07 Early solo founding and first customers: After failed co-founder attempts, Rob pressed forward alone, with his wife later closing the first million in revenue. They grew sales through 500 Startups in Silicon Valley, while Rob taught himself to code to evaluate engineers and guide product development. 15:33 A disciplined approach to learning: Rob listens to audiobooks at triple speed while exercising, studies science and engineering textbooks on his phone, and uses AI tools for clarity. Inspired by Elon Musk’s method of self-education, he is spending two years building technical depth to explore deep tech. 21:28 Shifting from wealth to impact: Rob reflects on wasting much of his twenties chasing money, parties, and relationships. He now believes happiness plateaus after modest income and regrets not focusing earlier on science and impact, drawing inspiration from pioneers like Richard Feynman and John von Neumann. Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/rob-liu-science-over-money Get transcripts, startup resources & community discussions at www.bravesea.com WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea English: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Bahasa Indonesia: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Chinese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts Vietnamese: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts