Markets Weekly podcast (11 May 2026): UK local elections special

In this week's podcast, Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, joins host Julien Lafargue to reflect on the bond markets in 2025 and provide insights on what will be the driving forces in 2026. They discuss if central banks are done with interest rate cuts and if the bond markets are too complacent about the inflation outlook. Additionally, they explore what large-scale, AI-related capital expenditure means for credit markets.

As ongoing political uncertainty in the UK puts pressure on sterling, what is the longer-term outlook for the currency? Bhaskar Gupta, Head of FX Distribution, joins host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to discuss the outlook for the major currencies amid expected rate hikes from leading central banks. They also discuss the US dollar’s safe-haven status, inflationary headwinds and yen volatility amid bouts of intervention by the Bank of Japan.

Following a historic weekend of election results, what have we learned from an increasingly fragmented electorate? Sonia Fernandes, UK Government Relations and Policy, and Luke Mayberry, Investment Strategist, join host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to consider the unprecedented gains by Reform UK amid a shift towards anti-union parties. They also discuss the likelihood of a Labour leadership challenge in the short term, the market reaction to the results and the outlook for the UK economy.

What do last week’s central bank meetings imply for interest rate expectations in 2026? Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, joins host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to consider the latest policy announcements. As the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank leave rates on hold, concerns mount over an oil-induced inflationary shock. They also discuss investment opportunities in fixed income, the latest earnings news and what’s next in the Middle East conflict.

A year on from when President Donald Trump announced his 'Liberation Day' tariffs, what has been the impact on the global economy? Lukas Gehrig, Head of Quantitative Macro and Thematic Strategy, joins host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to consider the effects the initiative has had on global trade routes. They also discuss how the tariffs have affected the US economy and explore the likely inflationary impact from this year's energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

As negotiations in the Middle East continue, is a peace deal in reach? Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, considers the latest developments in the region. Meanwhile, US banks reported first-quarter results that generally beat expectations – driven by strong equity trading – and painted an encouraging outlook backed by the strength of the US consumer and a resilient economy.

What can we learn from the way investors behave during bouts of extreme market volatility? Alex Joshi, Head of Behavioural Finance, joins host Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, to discuss recent investor behaviour amid unpredictability in the Middle East, how use of live newsfeeds affects investor decisions and the importance of maintaining perspective despite ongoing uncertainty.

What does Tuesday’s US deadline for Iran mean to markets? Listen in to hear Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, consider recent developments in the Gulf. Despite the market’s resilience in the hopes of a ceasefire, the potential for oil shortages amidst a prolonged conflict threaten to hit global economic growth and increase the risk of recession.

How is the conflict in the Middle East affecting currency markets? Listen in to hear Bhaskar Gupta, our Head of FX Distribution UK, discuss the latest developments in FX markets and the outlook for the major currencies and central bank policy. Julien Lafargue, Chief Market Strategist, also gives an update on events in the Middle East, and highlights why market attention could soon shift from inflation worries to recession risk, if oil shortages materialise.

This week’s podcast features Stephen Moroukian, our real estate financing specialist, for an in-depth look at the latest property market developments. Listen in for expert insights on how the Middle East conflict is affecting UK fixed-term mortgage rates, as well as its potential impact on property prices – in both the UK and the UAE. Stephen also outlines the key changes of the Renters’ Rights Act, which is set to shake up the UK rental market when it takes effect in May. In addition, host Julien Lafargue looks at the wider market impact of the Middle East situation, and whether investment opportunities are emerging after recent market repricing.