Analysis: Iran, Deal or No Deal?

While seated beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on April 7, President Trump announced that the United States will imminently initiate talks with Iran over its nuclear program. The announcement comes amid a rise in U.S. military activity in the Persian Gulf and a string of threats directed at Iran by President Trump, citing Tehran's nuclear program and support for regional armed groups. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about why these talks are happening now—and what the Trump administration must do to ensure their success.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Dr. Dahlia Scheindlin, a Tel Aviv-based political analyst and Haaretz columnist. Scheindlin also serves as a fellow at Century International and has advised on eight national Israeli election campaigns over a twenty-year period. Together, they discuss the sources of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s staying power, as well as his ongoing efforts to remodel key state institutions. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Will Todman to evaluate how the changes underway in Israel might affect bilateral relations with the United States. Transcript: "Dahlia Scheindlin: Israel’s Political Turmoil," CSIS, April 3, 2025. Scheindlin's latest article: "The Escape Artist: How Netanyahu Lies and Why People Still Believe Him," Haaretz, April 1, 2025.

On March 15, the United States launched a wave of attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen. The Trump administration had pledged to step up efforts initiated by President Biden to combat Houthi assaults on commercial shipping and U.S. regional assets. As reports swirl of new U.S. strikes, the U.S. government has also been clearer in blaming Iran for Houthi actions, and it has promised to hold Tehran accountable. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the current state of play and the dilemmas confronting U.S. policymakers in dealing with the Houthis.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Nicolas Pelham, the Middle East correspondent for The Economist. Nicolas has worked in the Middle East and North Africa for more than 30 years and has reported from every state in the region. Together, they discuss his latest article, “The Great Pretender: How Ahmed al-Sharaa Won Syria,” an in-depth profile of the Syrian leader based in part on a mid-February interview. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Natasha Hall to discuss al-Sharaa's opportunities and challenges, and what they mean for Syria’s future. Transcript: "Nicolas Pelham: Ahmed al-Sharaa and Syria’s Future," CSIS, March 20, 2025. Nicolas' article: "The Great Pretender: How Ahmed al-Sharaa Won Syria," The Economist, March 5, 2025.

On March 4, Jon Alterman spoke with Renad Mansour, senior research fellow and director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, and Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, about the resilience of Iranian networks in the Middle East. Their discussion builds upon a recent Chatham House report Renad co-wrote on the topic. The following episode is a slightly condensed version of their conversation. You can find a link to the video of the complete discussion below. Transcript: "Renad Mansour and Sanam Vakil: Iranian Networks in the Middle East," CSIS, March 13, 2025. Video of the discussion: "Iranian Networks in the Middle East," CSIS, March 6, 2025. Renad's report: "The Shape-Shifting ‘Axis of Resistance’," Chatham House, March 6, 2025. Sanam and Jon's article: "The Indomitable IRGC," Foreign Affairs, August 15, 2024.

On Tuesday night, President Trump delivered the first broadcast address of his second term to Congress. Though his remarks on the Middle East were sparing and largely expected, U.S. policy in the region has largely been the opposite. Trump’s pronouncements on Gaza have sent especially powerful shockwaves throughout the Middle East, and hints of a new approach to Iran have also elicited attention. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, about the state of U.S. Middle East policy and its possible future trajectories.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Max Bergmann, head of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS. Previously, Max held a variety of positions at the State Department, including senior adviser to the assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs. He later went on to serve as a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, where he researched security cooperation between Europe, Russia, and the United States. Together, Jon and Max discuss the Middle East issues that unite and divide European countries and how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may be reshaping European perspectives on the region. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Martin Pimentel and Will Todman to evaluate the benefits, and costs, of U.S. unilateralism in the Middle East.  Transcript: "Max Bergmann: Does Europe Matter in the Middle East?," CSIS, February 27, 2025. Max Bergmann's recent report: "The Transatlantic Alliance in the Age of Trump: The Coming Collisions," CSIS, February 14, 2025.

On Tuesday this week, Saudi Arabia hosted the first set of high-level talks between the United States and Russia since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s role in facilitating the negotiations has drawn attention to Riyadh’s pursuit of an increasingly elevated status on the world stage. It also comes amid intensive U.S. efforts to win Saudi Arabia’s support for a normalization deal with Israel. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, to discuss what Saudi Arabia gains by hosting the talks and what this might signal about Riyadh’s next moves.

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Alessandro Accorsi, a senior analyst for social media and conflict at the International Crisis Group. Prior to joining ICG, he worked for five years at the European External Action Service, where he led a taskforce countering foreign interference and information manipulation in the Middle East. He also worked for five years as a freelance journalist in Cairo. Transcript: "Alessandro Accorsi: Disinformation Warfare in the Middle East," CSIS, February 13, 2025. Alessandro Accorsi's recent work: "How Israel Mastered Information Warfare in Gaza," Foreign Policy, March 11, 2024.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is President Trump’s first foreign visitor since he re-entered the White House in January. The two men will meet Tuesday night, and Netanyahu will also meet key members of the new administration and allies on Capitol Hill. There is much on the potential agenda: the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal, the Iranian nuclear program, Iran’s regional proxies, the fragile Lebanon ceasefire, Israeli outreach to Arab neighbors, and more. Asher Grant-Sasson speaks with Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, to offer insight into some of these issues and examine the current state, and possible future trajectories, of U.S.-Israel relations one month into President Trump’s second term.