An Iran War Vibe Check

Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the Trump administration's review of nuclear strategy, the case for uploading, and what it all means for the looming arms race. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Russia tested the RS-28 Sarmat heavy ICBM, which will replace the SS-18/RS-36M Satan.   What's it for?  Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the role of heavy ICBMs, the foundational assumption for counterforce, the rise of orbital bombardment systems (FOBS!!!!!!!!), the collapse of the ABM Treaty and the future of space-based interceptors. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

It's been a long time, we shouldnt have left you, but we got a dope pod to step too. Or at least we think so. After a brief hiatus, Aaron and Jeffrey return to discuss the latest from the Iran war and what it means for arms control. It ends with Jeffrey geeking out on Dark Eagle, the missile CENTCOM wants and Jeffrey is obsessed with   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

U.S. Undersecretary of State Tom DiNanno accused China of conducting decoupled, low-yield nuclear tests including on June 22, 2020.  Aaron and Jeffrey talk about seismic monitoring of nuclear tests, the role of hydronuclear testing, and what might be going on.    Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The New START treaty has expired leaving the US and Russia without a bilateral limit on offensive strategic arms for the first time in decades. There is reportedly a handshake deal not to do anything drastic for six months while the two sides talk about the outlines of a future deal, but there seems to be little agreement about what such a deal might look like.  Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the end of New START, the prospects for and constraints on a looming arms race, and why even bother with arms control treaties at all.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Russia has deployed the Oreshnik system in Belarus and then, from Russia, conducted another Oreshnik test.  Jefffrey and Aaron discuss how the open source team found the deployment site in Belarus before Russia announced it, what they think Oreshnik is, and how Russia managed to violate two arms control treaties with one missile.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jeffrey and Scott watched the new Kathryn Bigelow movie "House of Dynamite" and they both have opinions. The crew talks through both the artistic choices as well as the wonky details. "House of Dynamite" is an interesting take on missile defense and decisionmaking that doesn't quite commit enough to any philosophical or strategic camp, but ultimately may be the lens through which a lot of non-wonks view or interact with missile defenses, conceptually, as we move towards a potential major expansion of US missile defenses.  We should do a watch party. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Donald Trump directed "the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis" with other countries.  The Department of War doesn't test nuclear weapons, the Department of Energy does all the time in lots of different ways.  Some people worried this meant a return to explosive testing, others seemed to think it was about delivery systems.  Subsequent statements by the Vice President and the Secretary of Defense didn't clarify things. Aaron and Jeffrey sit down to try to make some sense of it all.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Alex Ward and others at the Wall Street Journal reported on the details of a Pentagon review process that has halted Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range strikes into Russia with ATACMs, Storm Shadow and other systems that need US targeting data. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what we already knew, what we didn't, and what it all mean. Hint: Allies should stand up their own targeting capabilities.   Watch the video episode here! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The Slack channel noticed that Russia was gearing up to test the SSC-X-9 Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile (aka Burevestnik), which Jeffrey and co. confirmed with satellite images. Reuters picked it up, noting how awkward all this was coming, as it did, just as Putin flew to Alaska to meet with Donald Trump. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the OSINT and the political implications. Watch the video episode here! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!