Episode 456: Crisis and Calculus—Israel, Iran, and a Region on Edge

Today, Morgan, Martha, and Jess unpack key takeaways from the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where Secretary Hegseth reaffirmed the Indo-Pacific as a U.S. priority—but also told regional allies that they need to take more responsibility as America turns inward. Meanwhile, China continues its campaign of aggression, and Europe is slowly waking up to Beijing’s threat—with President Macron calling for alliances against “spheres of coercion.”Can the U.S. credibly claim leadership in the Indo-Pacific without a coherent economic strategy? As allies grow wary of Trump’s tariff-first approach and the perception of the U.S. as a destabilizing force grows, will they begin shaping a regional architecture that leaves America behind?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/30/hegseth-warns-asia-allies-that-china-threat-is-imminent-00378700 https://www.axios.com/2025/05/31/rubio-trump-china-students-tariffs-rare-mineralsFollow our experts on Twitter: @morganlroach @marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/28BJTk4tG4E  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Jess, Amy, and Matt unpack the latest in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as President Trump issues a two-week ultimatum to Vladimir Putin—raising the question: does he really mean it? With no clear movement as talks have stalled, it seems increasingly clear that Russia is stress-testing the limits of U.S. and European patience.Trump’s disillusioned tone marks a shift, but the administration still appears stuck between rhetoric and real leverage. Meanwhile, NATO’s northern allies are growing uneasy. Is this diplomacy, delay, or something worse? And what’s the cost of letting Putin hold the cards while Europe hesitates to get serious?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyn3vqex47ohttps://www.wsj.com/world/north-korea-sent-missiles-and-other-arms-to-russia-in-violation-of-sanctions-u-s-and-allies-say-2ff4f55e?mod=world_lead_pos1https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/29/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-offensive.htmlhttps://www.wsj.com/world/europe/the-u-s-reinforces-europes-northern-front-fearing-war-with-russia-b499ef50?mod=world_feat5_europe_pos4https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/germany-to-step-up-ukraine-aid-as-europe-scrambles-to-replace-u-s-d0d4718b?mod=world_feat5_europe_pos2 Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones@WMattHayden@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/hJLvAVr4690  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, and Jeffrey unpack the Trump Administration’s pause on student visa interviews and its decision to revoke Harvard’s ability to enroll international students—actions that have sparked lawsuits, global reactions, and a debate over the future of U.S. innovation and soft power. As the U.S. steps back, others step in: the EU is investing $500 million to attract top talent, and universities in places like Hong Kong are rolling out red carpets for displaced students.What are the national security threats at play here? Can we enhance safeguards without undermining our most successful innovation engine—higher education? And what does it mean for America’s global influence when tomorrow’s world leaders are trained in Beijing or Brussels instead of Boston?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions. https://fortune.com/article/trump-universities-international-students/https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/18/us/international-students-universities-funding-trumphttps://www.csis.org/analysis/innovation-lightbulb-not-just-attracting-retaining-international-stem-studentshttps://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/harvard-international-student-ban-trump-china-europe-rcna209044 Follow our experts on Twitter: @NotTVJessJones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/-KCF4dFHsxg  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Martha, Les, and Jess examine the escalating tensions in the Middle East. Israel has launched a renewed offensive in Gaza amid mounting international pressure to end hostilities and allow humanitarian aid into the territory. Meanwhile, the murder of two young Israeli embassy employees has shocked the world and further underscored the volatility on multiple fronts.As Hamas remains active and Hezbollah and Houthi forces continue attacks—each backed by Iran—the Trump administration navigates complex terrain. With U.S.-Iran nuclear talks ongoing, and intelligence of a potential Israeli strike on Iranian facilities, questions loom: Will the administration’s posture embolden or restrain Israeli action? Can Trump’s hardline stance on Iran deliver results—or ignite broader conflict? And as Gaza remains in crisis and the region teeters, is Washington’s strategy up to the challenge?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Follow our experts on Twitter: @morganlroach@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones@lestermunsonLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/xDku2j9pwhQ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, Amy, and Jess examine the latest flurry of diplomatic activity between Russia and Ukraine—amid headlines, handshakes, and very little real progress. Ukrainian and Russian officials met face-to-face in Istanbul for the first time in years, while Putin refused to join. Trump’s recent refusal to endorse new sanctions on Russia– as the EU and UK ramp up pressure– is raising alarms among European allies and creating a problematic U.S.-European divide in NATO.  With the new Pope offering the Vatican as neutral ground and a bipartisan group of Senators pushing for tougher sanctions, the question remains: is Trump’s mixed approach—part engagement, part retreat—undermining the West’s leverage?  As Russia digs in and Ukraine holds the line, can diplomacy survive in a landscape shaped by war fatigue, nuclear risk, and fractured alliances?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/21/ukraine-war-briefing-pope-opens-vatican-door-to-peace-talks-says-melonihttps://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-peace-talks-trump-83979d718b73cb9bd655dd9aaa915573https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgddel17kvoFollow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/48WGmDLETXM  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, and Andy unpack weekend elections in Romania, Poland, and Portugal—where voters are navigating domestic frustrations, regional security fears, and the specter of Russian influence. In Romania, centrist Nicușor Dan defeated far-right nationalist George Simion with a pro-EU, anti-corruption message. Poland will head into a June presidential election runoff between centrist Rafal Trzaskowski and far-right challenger Karol Nawrocki, while in Portugal, a far-right party surged to 20%, shaking up the political landscape.Are these results driven by domestic political pressures—or do they reflect a broader European response to the war in Ukraine? Is European support for Ukraine holding strong, or is it increasingly tied to who’s in power in Washington? And how do concerns about ballot access and disinformation shape the future of European democracy?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the sources that helped shape our experts’ opinions. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c74q57kydgethttps://www.npr.org/2025/05/17/nx-s1-5400392/elections-in-poland-and-romania-could-shape-the-future-of-europe-and-ukrainehttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romanians-vote-presidential-run-off-that-could-widen-eu-rifts-2025-05-17/ Follow our experts on Twitter: @NotTVJessJones@morganlroach@AndyKeiserLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/dhrK5Za2OtU  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Jeffrey, and Matt break down major developments in Syria as President Trump meets with new Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa—former leader of the extremist group HTS—and announces the suspension of U.S. sanctions. The Trump administration’s evolving, more direct approach to foreign policy, on display throughout his Middle East trip, raises new questions about oversight, regional alliances, and long-term strategy.Can the U.S. trust this new Syrian leadership? Could loosening sanctions and engaging Gulf partners offer a rare opportunity to stabilize Syria, disrupt Iran’s regional ambitions, and counter the influence of Russia and extremist actors? With U.S. troops staying in place and a shifting diplomatic playbook, is this a strategic pivot that could finally reshape the balance of power in the region?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Follow our experts on Twitter: @lestermunson@WMattHayden@marthamillerdcLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/mGi6DTq2P88 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan and Andy break down President Trump’s high-profile visit to the Middle East—his first foreign trip of the new administration. From lifting sanctions on Syria and announcing a $600 billion investment from Saudi Arabia to ongoing hostage negotiations and talks on Hamas, Iran, and regional security, the trip highlights Trump’s economic-first approach to diplomacy.What are the real implications of lifting sanctions on Syria—and can the new Syrian leadership be trusted? Is the U.S. abandoning maximum pressure on Iran, or doubling down? And as China courts Middle Eastern nations, what role should America be playing in the region it keeps returning to?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Follow our experts on Twitter: @morganlroach@AndyKeiserLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/HLyhAdYOdyo  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Morgan, and Jess unpack the volatile state of affairs between India and Pakistan following days of exchanged missiles, drones, and cross-border fire in response to a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir. A ceasefire has been declared and is tentatively holding, though reports of violations have already surfaced. While the Trump administration has claimed credit for brokering the truce, the extent of U.S. involvement remains unclear, as India continues to frame the conflict as a bilateral matter.What role, if any, did Washington truly play? How does the U.S. balance its growing partnership with India amid regional instability? And with Prime Minister Modi expected to address the nation, will India push for peace—or prepare for more pressure?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out these stories which helped shape our experts’ opinions.  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/india-pakistan-ceasefire-shaken-overnight-clashes-kashmir/https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/fragile-ceasefire-holds-between-india-pakistan-trump-offers-more-help-2025-05-11/https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg9d913v20o Follow our experts on Twitter: @marthamillerdc@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/cVGRwYk1vjk  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Matt, and Algene break down the latest developments in U.S. trade policy. A new U.S.-UK agreement lowers tariffs on select British imports to 10%, including automobiles, aluminum, and steel. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China are set to meet this weekend in Geneva to jumpstart trade talks aimed at easing escalating tensions, as President Trump recently declared on social media that an 80% tariff on Chinese goods "seems right.”Is the U.S.-UK trade deal a meaningful step forward, or a symbolic win? Can the upcoming U.S.-China talks ease economic pressure and provide relief for American businesses and consumers? What are the national security stakes in U.S.-China trade negotiations?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out these stories which helped shape our experts’ opinions.  https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/china-agrees-to-trade-talks-with-the-u-s-and-rolls-out-more-stimulus-as-tariffs-hit-economyhttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-says-china-wants-negotiate-meet-right-time-2025-05-06/https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/trump-us-uk-trade-announcementhttps://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ready-fresh-100-billion-counterstrike-donald-trump-tariffs/Follow our experts on Twitter: @NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@WMattHayden@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/430xXMUN30I  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.