Fault Lines 451: Crossfire and Ceasefires: India, Pakistan, and the Fragile Truce

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Morgan sit down with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, former U.S. National Security Advisor. Drawing on insights from his decades of service and his work shaping the U.S. military’s future force, McMaster helps us understand what’s truly new in today’s era of great-power competition and rapid technological change - and why this moment might be when Russia is at its weakest.  (If I am remembering correctly talked a lot about Russia)How should policymakers think about deterrence in a world where battlefields stretch from Europe to the Indo-Pacific to cyberspace? What historical “rhymes” matter most right now? What gives McMaster confidence in America’s ability to compete and what keeps him up at night?@nottvjessjones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/UPUQgEVSV08  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Morgan and Jess speak with Dan Jablonsky, CEO of Ursa Major. They discuss how startups and nontraditionals are reshaping the defense technology landscape, the strategic importance of next-generation rocket propulsion, and the role of manufacturing innovation in strengthening U.S. and allied capabilities. What role should industry play in modern deterrence? How can the United States accelerate adoption of cutting-edge systems while building trust between government and industry? And as emerging threats—from hypersonics to hybrid conflict—challenge traditional military advantage, how can U.S. innovators help maintain the technological edge that underpins American and allied security?@morganlroach@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/9__6jFUFYoY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss the Trump Administration’s newly released National Security Strategy. They break down the major pillars of the strategy, from the administration’s call for “peace through strength” and its renewed emphasis on economic security, reindustrialization, and energy dominance, to its focus on burden-shifting with allies, deterring adversaries, and reasserting U.S. primacy in key regions, including the Western Hemisphere, the Indo-Pacific, and Europe.What does this strategy signal about the Trump Administration’s priorities heading into 2026? How does it reshape America’s approach to allies, competitors, and emerging technologies? And what does it reveal, explicitly and implicitly, about the administration’s theory of deterrence in an age defined by simultaneous regional crises and great-power rivalry?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/xxSDkMBoVl8  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Jamil, Les, and Amy dig into the latest round of U.S.-Russia peace talks after Vladimir Putin spent nearly five hours behind closed doors with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. No breakthrough occurred, but the stakes keep rising: Putin says Russia is “ready” for a conflict with Europe, Ukraine is grappling with corruption scandals and the resignation of Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Sudan is offering Moscow a Red Sea naval base, and the Senate’s sanctions bill is still stalled.Did anything new actually from the talks? What should we make of the economic incentives reportedly being floated in some of these negotiations? What would it take for the U.S. to move this conflict toward an endgame?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: @nottvjessjones@lestermunson@amykmitchell@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/r3iwMur3tQ0  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss rising tensions around Venezuela, where the U.S. has surged military assets into the region after months of striking drug-running vessels, and President Trump is set to meet with his cabinet tonight to decide next steps. Reports suggest an ultimatum may have been delivered to Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. One early U.S. strike is now under bipartisan scrutiny after allegations that American forces fired on survivors—prompting both Armed Services Committees to open investigations into the legality and authorities behind current operations.What are the administration’s strategic aims, and is the U.S. prepared for the consequences of the largest Western military buildup in the Caribbean since 1994? How will Congress’ stepped-up oversight shape the administration’s options? And with a streamlined NSC structure and an administration leaning into ambiguity, does this campaign reflect a coherent strategy—or a high-risk pressure play designed to keep allies and adversaries off balance?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article313261442.html https://stories.theconversation.com/tracking-the-us-military-in-the-caribbean/ @lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/-CiYGzP1RnU Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess unpack new revelations about the 28-point Ukraine peace proposal. Over the weekend several senators went to the press and announced that Secretary of State Rubio had told them the plan was drafted originally by Russians. The White House attempted to walk that back, saying it was a U.S. plan that incorporated Russian ideas, but the concessions it outlines for Ukraine have reinforced suspicions about its true authorship. Has the plan moved talks forward, or revealed how week Washington’s leverage really is? Can Zelensky navigate between maintaining U.S. support and avoiding a deal that rewards Russian aggression? And with President Trump pushing for progress, are we on the path toward a ceasefire–or simply watching the opening moves of a long and messy negotiation?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-peace-plan-europe-witkoff-33545b140c5bfbbc5e9061a739802e54 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1ypqlle0o @lestermunson@nottvjessjones@morganlroach@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here:  https://youtu.be/KRM8oQysfvg  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Jamil, Les, and Morgan break down the Trump Administration’s new  28-point peace plan for Ukraine — a proposal that would cap Ukraine’s military size, cede territory to Russia, redirect frozen Russian assets toward reconstruction, and ban future NATO membership. Moscow’s envoy praised the plan, Kyiv says it plans on discussing it with the White House, and European allies and some Congressional members express alarm over the  terms.Is this the beginning of the end of the war, or a diplomatic dead end? What does the proposal signal about the White House’s larger Ukraine-Russia strategy? Does this proposal reward Russian aggression and risk legitimizing invasion as a negotiating tool?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-peace-plan-europe-witkoff-33545b140c5bfbbc5e9061a739802e54 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1ypqlle0o @nottvjessjones@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@lestermunsonLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/HDEgKTQjdGI  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Matt, and Jess unpack Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s high-profile visit to Washington, his first since the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, and a landmark $1 trillion investment announcement alongside a U.S. agreement to sell the Kingdom F-35 fighter jets. The visit, including a business summit at the Kennedy Center, underscores Saudi Arabia’s growing economic and strategic importance to the United States.As President Trump deepens ties with Riyadh and pushes for Saudi normalization with Israel through the Abraham Accords, is this a pragmatic step toward regional stability — or a transactional bet with long-term risks? Can trade and tech cooperation truly build a new Middle Eastern “NATO,” or is Washington gambling on partnerships that could prove fragile?@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjones@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ez6-oyaTOds  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess break from the usual policy deep-dives for a special episode: a review of A House of Dynamite, the new 90-minute Netflix thriller that imagines a nuclear missile headed straight for the United States. The film unfolds through three overlapping vantage points—a Navy captain running the White House Situation Room, a deputy national security advisor suddenly thrust into a life-or-death decision cycle, and a Secretary of Defense guiding a president portrayed by Idris Elba. With standout performances from Jared Harris, Rebecca Ferguson, and newcomer Gabriel Basso, the movie blends high-stakes crisis response with surprisingly grounded depictions of how the U.S. government might react in the unthinkable scenario of an inbound nuclear strike.How realistic is Hollywood’s take on nuclear command and control? Which perspective offers the most credible view of how the system actually works? And what does the film get right—or wrong—about the speed, uncertainty, and pressure of decision-making when minutes determine national survival?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/a_NHqB2PIv8 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Matt, and Algene discuss Iraq’s parliamentary elections, where Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s coalition claimed victory, though history suggests the post-election power struggles are just beginning. With half of Iraq’s population under 25, voter turnout strong, and political violence relatively low, this election could mark a step forward for Iraqi democracy.What do the results mean for U.S. strategy in the region as Washington prepares to reduce its troop presence by 2026? Can Iraq resist deepening Iranian influence at a time when Syria’s landscape is shifting? And as the U.S. pushes to expand the Abraham Accords and secure energy stability, will Baghdad emerge as a partner for regional progress — or a pressure point for America’s Middle East policy?Check out this source that helped shape our fellows’ discussion: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iraqs-prime-minister-iran-backed-militias-set-for-difficult-negotiations-after-election-4668abb8?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfwA1yCAZTvMYMMp3i22_AkbCNDrQA-Ipis82JTDlJhiWMQ7gXCr_20BU6k91s%3D&gaa_ts=6916447b&gaa_sig=A231zbhaHMgoOWVXiVlE9kmZm1YmZvrIr9lVtai7yGoudpX6Xg-xoN3621z8UoZoEU1mt7i5d4OsmTh2rcb7JA%3D%3D4dd7f26b8e98 @nottvjessjones@lestermunson@AlgeneSajery@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/94KRBnShAKY  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.