The Dealership Fixit Podcast podcast

Holding Inventory Rarely Pays Off: The July Numbers and What to Do With Aged Units Right Now | Mike Murray, NPA

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Back in May, Mike Murray told us April was the top and the market would bottom out around August. The July numbers are in. He was right.


But there is a new wrinkle. About 6,500 units crossed the block in July. A year ago it was 5,000. That is 30% more bikes at the auction, the most for any July in three years. More supply plus the normal fall slide means a lot of red on the report. Domestic cruisers down 13%. Metric down 10%. PWC down 23%.


Here is the part most dealers will miss. The actual dollars are still at or above last year in most categories. The drop feels worse than it is because spring was so strong. And the lowest prices of the year are sitting right in front of you for the next 30 to 60 days.


Mike walks through where the extra bikes are coming from, why the clean ones still bring big money while the rough ones sit, and what to do with the units you took in too high this summer. He also gives away the pricing trick a dealer shared in a 20 group meeting last week. It works.


What we cover:

  • Why the slide came right on schedule, and why 2026 is still a little better than expected
  • Where the extra 1,500 auction units came from. It is not repos. Repos are flat.
  • More dealers are buying too. NPA saw about 10% more dealers show up this year.
  • The three ways dealers use Direct Buy: the trade you do not want, the trade you are not sure about, and the unit that has aged out
  • Sturgis: how NPA put numbers on non-Harley trades in a couple of minutes so the sales team could stay on the customer
  • Why this is a buyer's market right now. More supply, less competition, and the northern dealers are already thinking about snow.
  • The three things that decide what a bike is worth: how wanted it is, what shape it is in, and the miles
  • Where the deals are. Clean low-mile bikes still get bid up. The one with a dent in the tank that needs $900 in recon is where the money is.
  • The buying window: prices start climbing again in 30 to 45 days
  • The unit you took in too high. Mike's answer: holding inventory rarely pays off. Cut it loose and put the money in something that turns.
  • The dealer who turns his used inventory five times a year, and how he does it
  • The 11,995 pricing trick
  • Why clean Harleys keep pulling away from rough ones
  • Why side by sides are holding up when everything else slid
  • Why PWC fell off a cliff, and why not to panic about it
  • Repos: flat, normal, nothing to worry about
  • The $10,000 bike that is now an $8,000 bike, and the $1,000 loss that turned into $2,000 because nobody had a plan
  • Book values dropping 2% to 4% on September 1, and why that is good news
  • Trikes: why the book went one way and the real market went another
  • The 60 to 90 day outlook
  • The one thing to do this week: go watch an auction for 30 minutes


Watch on YouTube: https://youtube.com/@dealershipfixit

NPA Market Report: https://www.npauctions.com/cp/npa-market-report

Reach Mike Murray: [email protected]

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