048 Wonderwall

Speculating in cryptocurrency is not about being right or wrong; instead, the most successful speculators and investors, focus on recognising the moments in time when supply and demand become unbalanced, creating asymmetric trading opportunities, where risk can be quantified, and, even if the position fails, valuable information can be received about the most likely future direction of the trend.

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If you want to invest not over the next hour, day, week, or month, enjoying the benefits of a short-term pop in price, history suggests those who understand the drivers of long term trends, detecting societal shifts whose effect will last not a month or two but years, hold an advantage.

In an era dominated by fake news, in an age where the general public is rapidly losing faith in their governments, and in an environment of rising populist thinking, something needs to be done. A solution needs to be found — the only question is: Are blockchains the solution?

As Bitcoin approaches a fibonacci 38.2 retracement, a level closely watched by technical analysts, let’s talk about the drivers behind long term trends.

The banking system is using a technology that’s 45 years old. The Ripple protocol, using XRP, is designed for faster, almost instant interbank payments, disrupting the global interbank system, but the SWIFT cooperative is not just going to let a new technology like Ripple takeover. FinTech banks are challenging traditional banks, offering app-based services, including multi-currency accounts, and the ability to buy and sell fiat currency at or near the actual exchange rate. But what if you want to interface your FinTech bank account with cryptocurrency assets?

With debt levels at record highs, the likelihood of a massive shakeup of the financial system increases. As consumers own higher levels of debt than ever before the likelihood of a six sigma event increases. Out of a future crisis, will blockchain technology emerge like banking, bonds, and stocks, as the fourth great invention of finance?

The tendency for the worst news to coincide with the end of a down move and the best news to coincide with the end of an up move has, like the slope of hope and the wall of worry, been turned into a handy aphorism. It shows up in the stock market, the forex market, the bond market, in fact, all liquid financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, exhibit this behaviour - even real estate.