A Body Blow? The War on Iran and U.S. Military Readiness

The war against Iran is putting new strains on U.S. military readiness by consuming munitions and missile defense interceptors, as well as through extended deployments, sustained operational demands, and the diversion of forces and attention from other theaters. Mark Cancian (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Stacie Pettyjohn (Center for a New American Security), and Michael Eisenstadt (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) join Ryan to unpack what readiness actually means, how the war is affecting it, what vulnerabilities have been exposed, and what it all means for deterrence and the U.S. military's ability to respond to a crisis with China.

The Marine Corps just released its plan to fight against adversaries on land and Ryan had the two architects of the plan, Ground Combat Element 2040, on the show to talk about it. They discuss drones, resilience, long-range fires, logistics, and what marines will need to survive and fight on an increasingly transparent battlefield while still preserving the critical human element. 

Our intrepid team covers a lot of ground in this episode: the increasing fluidity of the battlefield, drones and air defense, the biting Black Sea campaign, the causes and aftermath of the firing of Ukraine's popular defense minister, why Ukraine probably cannot produce PAC-3 air defense missiles (despite what some journalists are telling you), and the likelihood of a new round of Russian mobilization. This episode is Dara Massicot and Michael Kofman at their best.  Thanks to NODA AI for supporting this episode. NODA AI is building mission command for autonomous forces. Learn more at warontherocks.com/noda

Afshon Ostovar, one of the leading experts on Iran and the host of the members-only podcast The Iran Reckoning, is joined by War on the Rocks membership editor Kerry Anderson for a state-of-play conversation on the conflict between the United States and Iran. They consider why the fighting has settled into a stalemate and dig into which figures in the Iranian regime have influence over Iran's approach to the war. Afshon unpacks the implications of Mohsen Rezaei's recent appointment as head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, before the two look ahead to what comes next. Normally members-only content, this episode is released here for free.

Lt. Gen. (ret.) Francis Beaudette, former commanding general of the U.S. Army Special Operations Command, joins Ryan to discuss how his family history, service, and books shaped his path into and time in the Army. Together, they talk through his years as a young officer during Operation Desert Storm, the wars that followed, the present and future challenges of special operations (and how they aren't that different from the past), and the difficulty of learning the right lessons from the wars of today. Thanks to Legion Intelligence for sponsoring the event at which this episode was recorded.

Ukraine's expanding use of drones at all ranges has changed the war's momentum. This episode examines how Kyiv is reaching deeper into Russian territory, disrupting operations and logistics as well as energy infrastructure. How is Russia adapting (or not)? Can these strikes produce lasting advantages on the battlefield? Will this force Russia to escalate? Mike Kofman and Dara Massicot join Ryan to discuss. This episode is brought to you by Booz Allen. Learn more at warontherocks.com/boozallen.

Last fall, the U.S. Marine Corps had virtually no first-person view attack drones. That's changed quickly. This episode is about how a team of marines at Weapons Training Battalion at Quantico went from a cold start to building a Marine Corps-wide first-person view drone training system. Ryan was pleased to welcome some great marines onto the show: Col. Scott Cuomo, CWO5 Steve Pearsoll, CWO3 (Gunner) Troy Hotaling, GySgt Jude Stewart, GySgt Justin Creasman, and Sgt Timothy Brockup.    Since we recorded this episode, Cuomo has changed command and is off to his next exciting assignment.  This episode was brought to you by Onebrief. Learn more at warontherocks.com/onebrief

When is the risk of war the highest? And what should the United States be doing about it? One of the most important but underappreciated questions in international politics is how states think about the future balance of power. Countries that believe their position is improving often choose patience. Those who fear their position is deteriorating may feel pressure to act before their advantages disappear. In this episode, Ryan is joined by Dean Cheng, Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Amanda Hsiao to explore how Chinese leaders may be thinking about time, power, and Taiwan.  This episode is sponsored by Kibu, which ensures you always know who's on the other end of every conversation, wherever it happens. Learn more about Kibu at warontherocks.com/kibu

Rose Gottemoeller joined Ryan in Washington. They discussed how the West might think about relations with Russia once the war with Ukraine ends, as well as nuclear diplomacy and other critical issues. Gottemoeller was the deputy secretary general of NATO and, before that, served as a senior State Department official. She is currently at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and has a new book out called Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and US-Russia Relations after the Cold War (Stanford University Press).

Gen. Frank Donovan, commander of U.S. Southern Command, sat down with Ryan to discuss the vision behind the command's new Autonomous Warfare Command and what it signals for the future of military operations in the Western Hemisphere. Donovan explains how SOUTHCOM aims to move drones and autonomous systems beyond tactical experimentation and connect them to strategic effect: disrupting cartel networks designated as terrorist organizations, strengthening cooperation with allies and partners, and giving the command new ways to see, decide, and act across a complex region.   This episode was brought to you by NODA. Find out more about our friends at NODA at warontherocks.com/noda