Volatility Views 687: Semi Shocks and Volatility Haircuts

The Fed delivered another volatile week, but the market's rapid rebound left VIX back in the mid-teens and raised fresh questions about whether traders are becoming too complacent. Host Mark Longo and Russell Rhoads examine the market's reaction to the Fed, the widening gap between VIX cash and October VIX futures, growing concerns in the Treasury market, and the potential catalysts that could finally awaken volatility. They also break down the busiest VIX options trades of the week, including heavy upside call activity, renewed interest in VIX puts, an unusual multi-expiration spread, and the possibility of daily VIX expirations. Plus, Russell's weekend UVIX strategy finally returns to the winner's circle, volatility traders target upside in VXX, and the hosts make their latest VIX predictions in the Crystal Ball.

Volatility wakes up from its late-summer slumber on this episode of Volatility Views as Mark Longo and Russell Rhoads break down a surprisingly active stretch across the volatility markets. VIX briefly pushed above 18 before retreating, VIX options volume came roaring back, traders targeted everything from near-term puts to triple-digit VIX calls, and the volatility futures curve offered some interesting clues about what the market expects next. Plus, Russell breaks down some fascinating VIX weekly trades, including one that landed almost perfectly at settlement, we examine the latest action in SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX, and Mark celebrates a rare two-week Crystal Ball bullseye after nearly nailing the VIX level from the previous episode.

The theta clock is ticking on the volatility markets! On this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo is joined by Brian Overby from OptionsPlaybook.com and Henry Schwartz from Cboe for a deep dive into a surprisingly quiet volatility landscape. With VIX dipping into the 14 handle and VVIX hovering near unusually low levels, has volatility simply gone to sleep for the dog days of summer—or is premium getting too cheap to ignore? The crew discusses whether this is an attractive time to buy volatility, why VIX spikes have become increasingly difficult to monetize, and how traders can potentially take advantage when those brief volatility explosions finally arrive. They also break down the VIX futures term structure, some massive VIX options positions and intriguing upside trades, plus the latest action in SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX. Brian also shares an interesting options strategy in SpaceX before the crew heads into the Crystal Ball to forecast where VIX might be headed next. And somewhere along the way, Henry introduces what may be the next must-have accessory for every options trader—the Theta Clock.

On this episode of Volatility Views, host Mark Longo is joined by Russell Rhoads, Mark Sebastian, and Jim Carroll to ask whether the volatility market is practically daring traders to sell vol. The crew breaks down a wild week featuring Treasury intervention, Scott Bessent's message to the bond market, and the growing debate over whether a "Bessent put" is helping keep volatility contained. With VIX struggling to gain much traction and the VIX futures curve sitting in healthy contango, is the market signaling that short vol is still the place to be—or is complacency setting traders up for a surprise? They also dig into the latest VIX options activity, including massive VIX rolls, heavy upside call trading, the continuing fascination with cheap VIX puts, and some unusual trades way out on the volatility curve. Plus, the team checks in on SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX, examine an earnings season where realized moves have finally fallen short of expectations, and look ahead to Nvidia and the potential volatility catalysts waiting around the corner.

The volatility survivors are back! After surviving tornado sirens, wild weather and another relentless week of declining volatility, Mark Longo is joined by Russell Rhoads, Mark Sebastian and special guest Rich Excell to break down everything happening across the volatility landscape. On this episode, the crew discusses the continued grind higher in equities and lower in VIX, why the bond and stock markets appear to be watching two very different movies, and whether volatility could completely melt down as we head deeper into the dog days of summer. They also dig into the growing fascination with VIX puts, including the suddenly popular 15 strike, unusual activity across the VIX options market, a massive September-to-October/November VIX call roll, the latest action in SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX, Russell's intriguing weekly VIX trades, and much more. Plus, could VIX actually trade with a 12 handle before Jackson Hole? And what are our volatility survivors forecasting for next week?

The VIX put mystery may finally be solved! On this episode of Volatility Views with Russell Rhoads and Mark Sebastian, we dig into the unusual deep-in-the-money VIX put spreads that have been puzzling us and uncover the margin dynamics that could help explain why traders keep putting them on. We also break down a wild week in volatility, including the plunge in VIX, the latest VIX futures term structure, notable VIX options flow, and the continuing fallout from reverse splits in the volatility ETP space. Plus, the SPCX madness continues. We examine the massive activity in far out-of-the-money SPCX calls, discuss the inverse ETF apparently behind the trades, and explore whether there could be a method to this options madness. All that plus single-stock futures, unusual Rocket Lab options activity, our latest volatility predictions, and much more.

The Volatility Nomad returns! On this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo and Dr. Russell Rhoads welcome back Michael Listman, aka UVXY Trader, who joins the show from the UK after months of trading his way across Europe. The crew breaks down another wild week for the volatility markets, including the brief VIX spike above 20, the post-Fed volatility collapse, a surprisingly subdued VIX futures curve, and whether the market is becoming a little too comfortable heading into the fall. Michael also takes us inside life as a traveling volatility trader and explains how being a "volatility nomad" has changed his approach to risk and position management. We dig into his current strategies involving UVXY, SVIX and VXX, seasonality in volatility ETPs, longer-dated positions, pair trades, short straddles and more. Plus, we examine the latest unusual VIX options activity, including some truly extreme upside strikes, revisit Russell's Microsoft earnings trade, and peer into the Crystal Ball for where VIX could be headed next.

Volatility finally showed signs of life this week—but as traders have come to expect, the spike didn't last. On this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo is joined by Dr. Russell Rhoads to dissect another unusual week in the volatility markets. The hosts examine why VIX briefly pushed toward 20 before quickly retreating, despite geopolitical tensions, AI spending concerns, and a sharp selloff in technology stocks. They also break down the latest VIX futures term structure, analyze the week's most intriguing VIX options trades, discuss whether markets are underpricing geopolitical risk, and explain why Microsoft's upcoming earnings could be one of the biggest volatility events of the summer. In this episode: Why VIX couldn't sustain its move toward 20 AI spending concerns from Google and Tesla shake the market What the VIX futures curve is signaling Dr. Russell Rhoads' Weekly Rundown of unusual VIX options trades Is the market ignoring geopolitical risk? Why Microsoft earnings could be the next major volatility catalyst Crystal Ball predictions for next week's VIX

In this episode of Volatility Views, host Mark Longo is joined by "Muscle" Rhoads (Dr. Russell Rhoads), Mark Sebastian from Option Pit, and the long-awaited return of the Thompson Twins (Matt and Mike Thompson of Thompson Capital). Together, the crew unpacks a wild week of violent market rotations, earnings season anxieties, and the localized panic ripping through semiconductor and AI stocks. The team takes a deep dive into the vol surface to analyze why the equal-weighted VIX EQ is surging past 50 while index-level vol remains relatively contained. Are we looking at a localized tech overreaction, or the brink of a massive correlation-one sell-off? Plus, they break down a bizarre, head-scratching 100-strike VIX put trade, structural "mullet" vs. "tulum" strategies, and the latest reverse splits shaking up the vol ETP space (SVIX, UVXY, and UVIX). What's inside this episode: The Volatility Review: Deconstructing the Taiwan Semi fallout, Nvidia's wild swings, and how money is rotating between tech hyperscalers and broader indices. The New VIX Order: Why geopolitical and event-driven vol spikes are mean-reverting faster than ever in the modern market ecosystem. Term Structure & Haircuts: Moving long and short on the curve—the team explains why they are leaning into the traditional "mullet" style. VIX Options Flow: Breaking down the massive volume behind the August 26 calls, the shift toward the 17 puts, and another round of mocking high-risk, low-reward institutional trades. ETP & Levered Vol Update: Dealing with the liquidity drain post-reverse splits in UVXY and UVIX, and why tracking seasonality matters right now. The Crystal Ball: The guys put their reputations on the line with their weekly VIX and Volley predictions for next week.

In this episode, Mark Longo, Russell Rhoads (Dr. VIX), and Scott Nations dive deep into a massive divergence brewing under the surface of the equity indexes. While S&P 500 volatility is sitting quietly at seasonal lows, Nasdaq 100 volatility tells a completely different story as tech and AI anticipation ramps up ahead of Microsoft's pivotal earnings report. Key Topics Covered: The Volatility Review: Breaking down a massive two-week crush that dragged VIX cash down nearly 4 points, alongside drops in VOLY and the VVIX. The Nasdaq vs. S&P Divergence: Scott explains how VolDex measures show completely different volatility regimes for tech vs. broad market index options. The Tech "Canary": Why Russell has Microsoft's upcoming July 29th year-end earnings report circled as the ultimate reality check for the AI boom. VIX Futures & The Return of Volume: June options volume just put up a historic 1.6 billion contracts. Why are traders suddenly piling back into VIX futures? The "Dark Web" of Vol Trades: Analyzing a bizarre, deep-in-the-money August put spread and a massive November VIX call strip paired with a 1x6 put ratio spread. Crystal Ball: Predictions for where VIX and VOLI land by next week.