Volatility Views 669: Flashing Warning Signals?

It's a spooky Friday the 13th on the Options Insider Radio Network! This week, the panel gathers to dissect a market that is being haunted by more than just superstitions. From explosive moves in energy to a bond market that is sending shockwaves through the 60/40 portfolio, the "murderers' row" of vol experts covers it all. On the Docket: The Energy "Memification": Mark Sebastian breaks down the "algo madness" in Crude Oil and why the move to $120 was a mechanical outlier. The Bond Market Cracks: Dr. Russell Rhoads and Jim Carroll discuss why "9 Vol" in the 10-year Treasury is the equivalent of a 40 VIX and what it means for interest rate expectations. VIX as a Passenger: Why the VIX is "yawning" at 27 despite the red across the screens. The Weekly Rundown: Dr. Rhoads reviews a litany of "crappy trades" and highlights a massive 20,000-lot mystery trade in the VIX weeklies. Crystal Ball: Will next week bring a "Jalapeño" spike or a "Vanilla" retreat? The team places their bets on the next VIX settlement. Featuring: Host: Mark Longo, The Options Insider The Greasy Meatball: Mark Sebastian, Option Pit The Professor Dr. VIX: Dr. Russell Rhoads, IU Adjunct Professor The Vixologist: Jim Carroll, Ballast Rock Private Wealth

The VIX is screaming higher, hitting a 27 handle as the "Danger Zone" officially reopens. On this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo is joined by Russell Rhoads, Andrew Giovinazzi, and Matt Amberson to break down a chaotic week fueled by active conflict in the Middle East and a "charitably termed" terrible non-farm payrolls number. Plus, the legend himself, Kenny Loggins, returns to the program as volatility looks skyward. On this episode, the panel dives into: The Volatility Review: Analyzing the 6-point spike in VIX Cash and the massive 15-point jump in the VVIX. The Oracle of New Hampshire: Matt Amberson (ORATS) explains why things are spicy enough for him to start buying straight puts. Russell Rhoads' Weekly Rundown: A deep dive into VIX option flow, including the massive interest in the March 20 puts and the July 60 calls. The Return of the Loggins: Kenny Loggins joins the show as the market flirts with "panic" territory and the backwardation deepens. Stagflation Worries: Andrew Giovinazzi and the team discuss why $90 oil and bad employment data are a nightmare for the Fed. Crystal Ball: The team makes their bold (and high) VIX prognostications for next week.

Tech wreckage is cutting the knees off the market, and the volatility panel is seeing red. This week, Mark Longo, Mark Sebastian, and Russell Rhoads dive into why the VIX is firming up despite the market sitting near all-time highs. Topics Breakdown: The Inflation Ghost: Why hotter inflation data is spooking the vol curve and keeping VIX above 20. The March 35 Calls: Why is this strike dominating the tape every single day? UVIX Management: A deep dive into "The Riddle of UVIX." We workshop how to use covered calls to offset decay without capping your "catastrophe hedge" upside. Election Vol: The November VIX cycle has entered the chat. Is it too early to hedge the midterms? Institutional Skullduggery: Discussing the Jane Street/Bitcoin lawsuit and the "Goldman Sachs fist punch" in financials. Visit https:// tastytrade.com/podcasts to see their latest offers.

Is the market teetering on the edge of a "seminal collapse"? On this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo, Mark Sebastian (the "Meatball"), and Russell Rhoads (Dr. VIX) break down a chaotic week in the vol markets. From the aftermath of a legendary "V-Death Match" on the Pro network to the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs, the team explores why the VIX is hovering near 20 despite indices sitting near all-time highs. Inside This Episode: The Volatility Review: A deep dive into the "weird" market reaction following the Supreme Court tariff ruling, spicy PCE data, and the decoupling of the Mag Seven from the rest of the market. The Private Credit Fiasco: Mark Sebastian sounds the alarm on cross-asset margining, Bitcoin's "teetering" state, and the potential for a Michael Saylor "apology tour." The VIX Mothership: Analysis of the massive call buying in March, April, and even May 70/80 strikes. Is someone hedging for a black swan? Russell's Weekly Rundown: Breaking down the "best option trade ever seen" using July 100 calls to finance downside protection. The Weekend Trade: With carrier groups moving in the Gulf and geopolitical tensions rising, is it time to load up on UVIX?

The "Buy the Dip" mentality was put to the test this week. Host Mark Longo is joined by Dr. Russell Rhoads (the "Once, Future, and Present Dr. VIX") and Andrew Giovinazzi (The Rock Lobster) to break down a wild week that saw the VIX touch the 22 handle before a massive intraday reversal. In this episode, the crew dives into: The Volatility Review: Analyzing the impact of the rare midweek non-farm payrolls and the latest CPI data on market sentiment. AI Narrative Shift: Is the "AI is good for everything" bubble finally bursting? A look at multiple compression in the Mag Seven and the "Grizzly Adams" view of the market. Russell's Weekly Rundown: Dr. Russell Rhoads breaks down the "clown show" trades in the weeklies, the impact of the VIX bid-ask spread on morning spikes, and why the current correlation data suggests 2026 is behaving like a different beast. Crystal Ball: The team places their bets on where the VIX will settle next week as we head into a holiday-shortened trading session. Plus: A massive announcement regarding Vol Death Match 2.0: The Flow Master vs. Scott Nations. Find out how you can submit topics and judge the victor at TheOptionsInsider.com/pro . Check out Tastytrade: https://www.tastytrade.com/podcasts

The market witnessed a wild week of price action, shifting from a tech-led "bloodletting" to a massive Friday reversal. In this episode, Mark Longo, Russell Rhoads (Dr. VIX), and Mark Sebastian (The Greasy Meatball) break down the carnage in the Mag Seven, the "memification" of Bitcoin assets like MSTR, and why the VIX is struggling to hold onto its gains despite the chaos. Inside This Episode: Volatility Review: A deep dive into the mid-week route and the "mother of all reversals." Why the Dow and equal-weight S&P (RSP) hit all-time highs while big tech bled. The "Memification" of Everything: Mark Sebastian explains why Bitcoin and MicroStrategy (MSTR) are following the GameStop blueprint. VIX Term Structure: Analyzing the "hunched" curve and why front-month futures remain subdued. Russell's Weekly Rundown: A look at "unusual" weekly trades, including a massive $5 call buy on the 15 strike. The New 0DTE Frontier: First impressions of the new Tuesday/Thursday expirations for single-name equities like Tesla and Nvidia. Crystal Ball: The crew places their bets on where the VIX cash will land by next Friday's close. Contact/Links: Check out tastytrade.com/podcasts

A historic rout in the precious metals markets steals the spotlight this week on Volatility Views. From silver's massive 25% intraday drop to the naming of a new (and hawkish) Fed Chair nominee, the panel breaks down why the "Metals Apocalypse" might be a canary in the coal mine for the broader equity markets. Join Mark Longo, Dr. Russell Rhoads, and Mark Sebastian as they navigate a high-velocity week of volatility, earnings, and unusual institutional positioning in the VIX. Episode Highlights The Silver Slump The "Meme-ification" of silver reached a breaking point this week. After months of triple-digit volatility levels, silver prices cratered 25% in a single session. The panel discusses whether this 46-year historic event suggests a broader 20% retracement for the S&P 500 is on the horizon. Fed Chair Shakeup The market reacted negatively to the news of Kevin Warsh potentially taking the helm at the Fed. While he has campaigned for lower rates, his history as an inflation hawk has traders worried about a return to a strict "dual mandate" focus that might not be as market-friendly as the Powell era. Unusual VIX Activity Despite the market sell-off, we aren't seeing "panic" buying in near-term VIX options. Instead, institutional paper is flowing into March and April, including a massive 80,000-contract diagonal spread involving June 47.5 calls. Is it a hedge, or just a sophisticated carry trade? Notable Quotes "When gold and silver catch a cold, the miners catch every single disease you could possibly catch from the Oregon Trail. They're getting dysentery, typhoid, and malaria all at once." — Mark Sebastian "If you blink, you miss a move up in VIX futures. That's the only opportunity to make money being long them, and it leads to massive upside fatigue." — Dr. Russell Rhoads Resources Mentioned Brokerage: https://Tastytrade.com/podcasts Social Media: Follow the crew on X: @Options, @OptionPit , @Rhoads_Russell .

The Council of Elders Reconvenes: The Greenland Siege and the Power of Gamma In this episode of Volatility Views, the Council of Elders—Mark Longo, Russell Rhoads, and Mark Sebastian—gather at the Hall of Wisdom to break down a week of market madness that would make Skeletor blush. From VIX spikes driven by "Greenland Siege" headlines to the massive $100 breakout in Silver, the team analyzes the forces reshaping the volatility landscape. Inside the Hall of Wisdom: The Volatility Review: The team breaks down the "Greenland Whipsaw." We look at the VIX Cash flirting with a 20 handle before "deal" headlines sent vol crashing back to the Pit of Peril. Attack of the Zero DTEs: Huge news from NASDAQ! The Elders discuss the launch of daily options on individual equities. Is this a boon for traders or a "Snake Mountain" trap of contra-exercise risk? VIX Term Structure & Tactical Flow: Russell and Mark dive into the Feb/March roll and the staggering volume in Feb 25 and 35 calls. Plus, a look at the "Hero's Journey" for Silver as it hits the par strike. Vol Death Match 2.0: Get ready for the ultimate showdown between the Flow Master and Scott Nations. Two men enter, one man emerges—you decide the victor at theoptionsinsider.com/pro . Eternia Nostalgia: The crew is "unreasonably excited" for the new Masters of the Universe movie. We discuss the teaser for the teaser, the lack of "CGI roids" on the new He-Man, and why a Snake Mountain popcorn bucket is a mandatory purchase. The Council of Elders: Mark Longo: The Options Insider  Russell Rhoads: Indiana University Mark Sebastian: Option Pit

In this episode, Mark Longo is joined by Dr VIX Russell Rhoads and Andrew Giovinazzi (The Rock Lobster) to conduct a "post-mortem" on 2025 and break down the surprising trends defining the start of 2026. The team dives deep into the VIX/SPX correlation breakdown, exploring why the traditional inverse relationship failed many traders last year. Russell brings the hard data, revealing how 2025 nearly set a record for the highest inverse correlation—making diversification more difficult than ever. Topics covered in this episode: Volatility Review: A look at the "yo-yo" week in the S&P and the recent firmness in VIX Cash. The Correlation Myth: Why "buying the dip" worked but "shorting vol" was a losing battle in 2025. VIX Term Structure: Analysis of the Jan/Feb futures and the 100% premium to realized volatility. VIX Options Flow: Breaking down the massive activity in Jan 17 calls and the persistent "magic" of the 15 puts. The Crystal Ball: The team places their bets for next week's VIX close and debuts their 2026 year-end predictions.

It is a New Year in the volatility markets! Host Mark Longo is joined by "Dr. VIX" Russell Rhoads and Mark Sebastian of Option Pit to break down a wild 2025 and peer into the crystal ball for 2026. From the "tariff tantrums" and "taper tantrums" of last year to the rise of 0DTE options and the recent "face ripper" ratio spreads, the team analyzes why the VIX median stayed elevated even without major explosive events. Plus, the moment you've been waiting for: we crown the 2025 Crystal Ball Hall of Fame winners and launch the official 2026 contest! What's Inside this Episode: The Volatility Review: A deep dive into the 2025 "Mad Vol Year." Why was the median VIX so much higher than normal? The 0DTE Impact: How zero-day options are reshaping the term structure and long-dated premium. VIX Face Rippers: Russell breaks down the bizarre ratio call spreads hitting the tape and what they signal for January and April volatility. The Crystal Ball Hall of Fame: We announce the four winners who nailed the 14.95 year-end VIX close within 0.1pt. 2026 Predictions: The crew places their bets for the coming year. Can we see a sub-10 VIX, or will the midterms push us toward 17.76? Key Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction and "Happy New Year" Cutoff Debate [07:15] 2025 Year-in-Review: The high of 60 and the 14-handle reality [15:40] The "Tariff Tantrum" and Fixed Income Volatility [22:10] Term Structure Analysis: Why the current curve is "poison" for ETP longs [31:45] Russell's Weekly Rundown: Explaining the "Face Ripper" trades [45:10] Crystal Ball 2025 Winners Revealed [52:30] 2026 Official Predictions & Closing Levels Connect with the Guest Experts: Russell Rhoads: Follow on X @RussellRhoads Mark Sebastian: Visit OptionPit.com or follow on X @OptionPit Support the Network: This episode is brought to you by Tastytrade. See why Investopedia named them the best broker for options in 2024. Visit tastytrade.com/podcasts to learn more.