The 2026 Forecast: Redrawing the World Map at Mar-a-Lago

From the quiet halls of Mar-a-Lago to the trench lines of Ukraine and the shores of Nigeria, the old world maps are being rewritten in real-time. This week, we examine the volatile space where high-level dealmaking meets the uncompromising application of military force and look ahead to a 2026 that promises to be a global "year of decisions."Episode HighlightsThe Mar-a-Lago Peace Framework: A deep dive into Zelensky’s twenty-point plan, the sixty-day "red line" ceasefire, and the controversial "corporate merger" approach to the Donbas. Netanyahu’s Final Hostage Plea: Why the Israeli Prime Minister is bringing the mother of the last hostage to Florida and the friction over the ambitious "Project Sunrise" in Gaza. Naval Strikes in Nigeria: Why the U.S. is launching Tomahawk missiles from the sea to target the Lakurawa faction as American influence slips in the Sahel. 2026 Geopolitical Forecast: A preview of the "land-for-security" swap in Ukraine, the threat of a full-scale regional war in the Middle East, and why China might move on Taiwan earlier than expected.

This week, we examine the cavernous distance between the rhetoric of diplomatic conference halls and the gritty reality of the front lines. From "high-tech Rivieras" in the ruins of Gaza to the U.S. asserting a doctrine of preemptive self-defense against "narco-terrorism" in the Caribbean, the global board is being reset by force.If you are looking for clarity rather than just headlines, check out our partner Ground News to spot the signal in the noise. Use our link in the bio for 40% off their Vantage Subscription. Enjoyed this deep dive? Don’t forget to subscribe, leave a review, and share this episode to help us decode the global landscape!

We are watching two different realities play out simultaneously: diplomats shaking hands in Florida and Washington while air raid sirens blare across Eastern Europe and Central Africa. This week, we dissect the jarring dissonance between the peace deals being promised on paper and the wars actually being fought on the ground, from the freezing trenches of Ukraine to the collapsing truces in the Congo.Episode HighlightsRussia’s "Negotiation" Tactics: How Moscow is targeting energy infrastructure and "shaping the battlefield" to prove they can still weaponize the cold, regardless of ongoing diplomatic talks.Gaza’s "Yellow Line": Why the US plan for an International Stabilization Force is stalling as allies refuse to cross into the "Red Zone," forcing Washington to consider a command structure that looks dangerously like owning the conflict.Humiliation in the Congo: The collapse of a "historic" peace deal in less than a week as M23 rebels capture the strategic hub of Uvira, humiliating US diplomatic efforts.Thailand vs. Cambodia: A breakdown of the airstrikes and mass evacuations on the border that signal the end of yet another US-brokered ceasefire.The Rise of "Pax Silica": Inside the new US-led alliance to ringfence the future of AI, treating technology as a strategic resource akin to oil.If you are looking for clarity rather than just headlines, check out our partner Ground News to spot the signal in the noise. Use our link in the bio for 40% off their Vantage Subscription.Enjoyed this deep dive? Don’t forget to subscribe, leave a review, and share this episode to help us decode the global landscape!

In this episode, we expose the "cold, hard machinery of compromise and coercion" driving global geopolitics this week. From the controversial "poison pill" peace framework designed to turn Ukraine into a fortress , to the rise of state-sponsored warlordism in Gaza’s power vacuum, the rules of engagement are shifting. We also investigate a chilling "double-tap" strike by SEAL Team 6 in the Caribbean, where the militarization of the War on Drugs threatens to turn the region into a free-fire zone.Episode HighlightsUkraine’s "Unjust Peace": We break down the U.S. administration’s twenty-eight-point framework, which trades territory for sovereignty and caps Ukraine's military at 600,000 personnel.The Washington Leak: Analysis of the leaked tapes featuring U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff "coaching" the Kremlin, and why this likely originated from a whistleblower within Washington.Gaza’s "Green Zone" Strategy: How the "Day After" scenario is creating a landscape of gated compounds and clan-based militias funded by Israel to fill the security vacuum.Escalation in the Caribbean: Inside the "double-tap" strike by SEAL Team 6 and the legal hack designating cartels as "terrorist organizations" to bypass due process.Operation Southern Spear: The unilateral closing of Venezuelan airspace and the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford as the U.S. blurs the lines between counternarcotics and regime change.If you found this intelligence briefing valuable, please subscribe to This Week Explained and leave us a review. To support our independent journalism and get the full picture on media bias, check out our partners at Ground News using the link in our bio.

Is the era of negotiation over? This week, Tiana and Intelligence Veteran Kervin unpack how the facade of international consensus is being replaced by the raw mechanics of force projection. From a controversial 28-point directive delivered to Kyiv to a massive U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, we analyze the dangerous divergence between diplomatic paperwork and the hard realities of Realpolitik.Episode HighlightsThe Ukraine "Fait Accompli": We break down the U.S. 28-point framework that forces Kyiv to trade territory and cap its military in exchange for an Article 5-style security guarantee—effectively imposing a peace deal rather than negotiating one.Gaza’s Diplomatic Deadlock: Why the UN Security Council’s stabilization plan is "dead in the water" due to Hamas’s refusal to disarm, and how Prime Minister Netanyahu is pivoting toward "total defense autonomy" to cut reliance on the U.S..Escalation in the Caribbean: The deployment of 15,000 U.S. troops and advanced naval assets off the coast of Venezuela, alongside new terrorist designations for the Cartel de los Soles and psychological warfare operations targeting the Maduro regime.Sponsors & OffersFresh Roasted Coffee: Powering our late-night intelligence reporting. Click the link in our notes and use code ThisWeek for 20% off your first order.Ground News: Escape the bias and noise. Get 40% off the Vantage Subscription to upgrade your media diet by using the link in our bio or description

The world is teetering on a series of high-stakes gambles. From a historic U.S. deal with a Syrian warlord to a massive military deployment aimed at Venezuela, we analyze a world caught in a volatile, precarious equilibrium.EPISODE SUMMARY:This week, we track four critical flashpoints. In Ukraine, as Kyiv strikes a major Russian oil terminal and races to build its own interceptor drones, a massive corruption scandal in the energy sector threatens to destabilize the government from within. In Gaza, a fragile one-month-old ceasefire faces a total deadlock over Hamas disarmament and the growing fear of a "de-facto partition" of the territory.Meanwhile, the White House is making a historic gamble, welcoming Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly the terrorist leader al-Julani) in exchange for an anti-ISIL deal, despite disturbing reports of sectarian massacres. Finally, we analyze Operation Southern Spear—a deadly U.S. counter-narcotics campaign that has deployed the USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier as President Trump is briefed on strike options inside Venezuela.In this episode, we break down:Ukraine's Two-Front War: Striking Russia's strategic depth while battling a critical corruption scandal at home.The Gaza Deadlock: Why Phase 2 is stalled, the flashpoint in the Rafah tunnels, and the risk of a "de-facto partition"."Statesman or Warlord?": The controversial U.S.-Syria deal with Ahmed al-Sharaa and the suspension of Caesar Act sanctions.Operation Southern Spear: Why the U.S. is deploying the world's largest aircraft carrier to hunt drug boats.A "Wag the Dog" Scenario: Is the Venezuela escalation a high-risk distraction from the new Jeffrey Epstein file release?-----This Week Explained is presented by our friends over at Fresh Roasted Coffee & Positively Tea. Have a cup of the best tasting coffee that gets Tiana & Kervin through breaking down the latest geopolitics news! Visit our link - ⁠https://lddy.no/1lc0u⁠ & use our promo code THISWEEK for 20% off your first purchase!Enjoyed this episode? Don’t forget to subscribe, leave a review, and share it with your network! Follow us @thisweekexplained for more.-------------Disclaimer:The views and opinions expressed on the podcast 'This Week Explained' are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization or entity. The information provided on the podcast is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered professional advice or a substitute for independent research and analysis. Each individual listener should research and identify their own opinions based on facts and logic before making any decisions based on the information provided on the podcast. The podcast hosts and guests are not responsible for any actions taken by individuals based on the information provided on the podcast.

The world is being stretched to a breaking point. From the frontlines in Pokrovsk to the corridors of the Kremlin and the fragile peace in Gaza, a volatile friction between stability and raw power projection threatens to shatter the old order.This week, we cut through the noise on multiple critical fronts. We analyze the brutal battle for Pokrovsk, a "genuinely strategic target" and the last gateway to the Donbas, where elite Ukrainian forces are outnumbered eight-to-one. We then track a potentially "seismic" rift in the Kremlin, as public denials surface about a feud between President Putin and his 20-year Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.In Gaza, we unpack the massive contradictions in the US-led peace plan, which a former Shin Bet head calls "Swiss cheese" , and explore why Hamas's disarmament is an "existential unraveling". We also reveal how China is playing the long game in the Western Balkans, using Serbia as an "ironclad partner" to export its authoritarian tech model and build deep, strategic dependency. Finally, we cover the catastrophic fall of El Fasher in Sudan, a man-made famine, and the "intolerable carnage" fueled by external powers.In this episode, we break down:Ukraine: The strategic, non-symbolic importance of Pokrovsk and the "Whac-a-Mole" strategy highlighting Ukraine's critical manpower crisis.Russia: The hard evidence fueling rumors of a Putin-Lavrov rift, including Lavrov's mysterious absence from the G20 and Security Council meetings.Gaza: The "impossible dilemma" of Hamas's disarmament and the contradictions between US envoy Steve Witkoff's "guns for butter" claims and on-the-ground realities.China & Balkans: How China is using "sharp power" —blending military hardware, "Safe City" surveillance tech, and infrastructure—to build dependency in Europe.Sudan: The catastrophic fall of El Fasher , the deliberate man-made famine , and the complete failure of international aid.-----This Week Explained is presented by our friends over at Fresh Roasted Coffee & Positively Tea. Have a cup of the best tasting coffee that gets Tiana & Kervin through breaking down the latest geopolitics news! Visit our link - https://lddy.no/1lc0u & use our promo code THISWEEK for 20% off your first purchase!Enjoyed this episode? Don’t forget to subscribe, leave a review, and share it with your network! Follow us @thisweekexplained for more.-------------Disclaimer:The views and opinions expressed on the podcast 'This Week Explained' are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization or entity. The information provided on the podcast is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered professional advice or a substitute for independent research and analysis. Each individual listener should research and identify their own opinions based on facts and logic before making any decisions based on the information provided on the podcast. The podcast hosts and guests are not responsible for any actions taken by individuals based on the information provided on the podcast.

The world is teetering on the brink , defined by a dangerous friction between the desire for stability and the forceful projection of power. From fragile ceasefires to new provocations, why is every major global conflict escalating at once?This week, "This Week Explained" analyzes a world of escalating, interconnected conflicts. In Ukraine, Russia has strategically shifted its assault to the entire natural gas infrastructure , a massive "tit for tat" retaliation that meets an intractable diplomatic stalemate with the Trump administration. In Gaza, a fragile ceasefire holds on, not by agreement, but by the "sheer political willpower" of the U.S. , which is forced to manage a dangerous pattern of localized attacks and massive retaliation.Simultaneously, the U.S. flexes its muscles with a massive naval deployment near Venezuela —while denying war plans —and signals its credibility to the Philippines as China uses "gray-zone" tactics to claim the Scarborough Shoal. We break down the strategic goals, the high-stakes signaling, and the unintended consequences connecting them all.In this episode, we break down:Ukraine: Why Russia's new focus on natural gas infrastructure is a strategic shift designed to "sever the country" and inflict "maximum civilian hardship" as winter begins.Gaza: The paradox of the "durable" ceasefire. How isolated Hamas "ticking time bombs" threaten the truce, and why the U.S. is acting as the "brake" on a full-scale collapse.Venezuela: The contradiction between the White House's public denials and the military's secret target list and massive naval deployment. We also explore how this crisis serves as a "strategic gift" for Russia.South China Sea: China's "lawfare" tactic of declaring a "nature reserve" at Scarborough Shoal , and why the U.S. "show of force" plan is really a signal to the Philippines.Africa: The major geopolitical realignment in the Sahel , where an anti-colonial narrative is pushing out Western forces and creating more instability as Russia and China fill the vacuum.

The world is walking a tightrope between desperately holding on to peace and the aggressive projection of power that threatens to shatter it. This week, we analyze the West's hardened stance on Russia, the precarious "yellow line" defining Gaza's future , and a massive U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean that may have less to do with cartels and more to do with China.Episode HighlightsA New Strategy on Russia: We break down the abrupt U.S. shift from diplomacy to direct sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies and the EU's unprecedented—and risky—plan to use €140 billion in frozen Russian assets as a "reparations loan" for Ukraine.Gaza's Fragile Truce: An exploration of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Gaza, the political battle over the "yellow line" boundary that some in Israel's government hope to make permanent , and the stern U.S. warning that support for Israel is not a "blank check" for West Bank annexation.Gunboat Diplomacy in the Caribbean: A deep dive into the massive U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, examining the three strategic layers: the official war on cartels , the unspoken pressure campaign against Venezuela's Maduro regime , and the long-term goal of securing the Panama Canal from Chinese influence ahead of a potential 2026 crisis.The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border War: We explain the dangerous cycle of attacks and retaliations between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban , a conflict fueled by Taliban protection of the TTP terrorist group and rooted in a century-old dispute over the colonial-era Durand Line.https://tr.ee/_G9AwE74eq

This week, we explore a world in flux as global power dynamics are redrawn on multiple fronts. From high-stakes diplomacy that could change the map of the war in Ukraine to a brutal power vacuum in Gaza and a generational revolution in Africa, the old rules are fracturing.Episode HighlightsUkraine's Diplomatic Gambit: A planned summit between Presidents Trump and Putin in Budapest aims to end the "inglorious' War". Meanwhile, President Trump uses the potential transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine as a powerful negotiation tool to bring Russia to the table.Gaza's Violent Peace: With the war between Israel and Hamas over, a power vacuum has ignited an internal battle for control. Hamas is using brute force to hunt down rivals and assert absolute authority, leading to a "war of all against all" as armed gangs and clans settle old scores.The Gen-Z Revolution in Madagascar: A youth-led protest movement against poverty and corruption has toppled the government, leading to a military takeover. We analyze this trend and where this dynamic of youth-driven political change could spread next, from Morocco to Peru.U.S. Pressure on Venezuela: The Trump administration escalates a pressure campaign against the Maduro regime, using B-52 bomber flights, lethal strikes on "narco-terrorists," and the public acknowledgment of covert CIA operations inside the country.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/this-week-explained--6199515/support.