Episode 336 | Peak Car by 2035: The $1.2 Trillion Autonomous Vehicle Industry Takes Shape

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla’s continued FSD 14 updates, Waymo’s expansion to London and the growing political and infrastructure challenges shaping the next phase of robotaxi growth.Walt shares his latest hands-on experience with FSD 14, including testing the new “Mad Max” mode, featuring more assertive lane changes, higher driving speeds, and improved autonomous parking. As Tesla refines FSD 14 in preparation for a wider release, Waymo continues to expand globally.This week, Waymo announced plans to launch in London in 2026, marking its second international market and the first where it will compete head-to-head with Uber for robotaxi rides. If an expansion to London was not enough, Waymo also announced a partnership with DoorDash for the Phoenix market, signaling continued momentum in delivery automation.Every robotaxi market presents unique challenges, and New York City is no exception. Political, regulatory, business, and energy constraints could slow Waymo’s path to launching a commercial service in the Big Apple as Grayson and Walt discuss NYC’s lack of energy infrastructure.Closing out the conversation, they turn their attention to Europe where Stellantis has partnered with Pony.ai to deploy autonomous Peugeot vans in Luxembourg, a potential sign that Stellantis could perhaps be looking to re-enter the autonomous vehicle market.Episode Chapters0:00 FSD 14 Update6:47 Robotaxi Mode8:56 Rolling Stops10:12 Waymo’s London Expansion 13:10 Wayve18:13 Waymo/DoorDash Partnership21:50 NYC’s Energy Infrastructure 27:08 Stellantis/Pony.ai Partnership30:06 Waymo Driver32:11 Next WeekRecorded on Friday October 17, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

David Doria, Director of Engineering – Automated Driving, Magna joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss Magna’s approach to developing autonomous driving systems.As the automotive industry transitions toward software-defined vehicles that will eventually become fully autonomous, the core technologies driving this transformation are being built today.On the road to autonomy, the evolution from Level 2 ADAS to more advanced autonomous systems is redefining not only how cars drive but also how they are designed, validated, and trusted. David underscores that autonomy will not arrive overnight and that it will scale through innovation, safety, and collaboration, beginning with advanced Level 2+ systems that are already on the roads today.Episode Chapters0:00 The Road to Autonomy Introduction0:23 Changing Automotive Market4:04 Maps8:47 Sensors14:13 Compute17:07 End-To-End22:02 Partnerships & Licensing Autonomous Driving Software 25:16 Software27:26 Automotive Standards 32:12 Public Trust36:28 Scaling AutonomyRecorded on Friday, October 10, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla’s FSD 14 release and Waymo’s potential market expansions. The episode begins with Walt sharing his firsthand experience testing FSD 14, showcasing its breakthrough ability to autonomously back out of driveways and park at destinations with a single tap. While impressive, he notes challenges remain with driveway precision and occasional cautious, jerky driving behavior that sets this version apart from previous releases.As Tesla rolls out FSD 14, NHTSA has launched a preliminary investigation into FSD. Meanwhile, Waymo is looking to potentially expand to Minnesota, after the company hired four lobbyists as part of an effort to changes to state laws that still require human drivers in autonomous vehicles.Across the Atlantic, Sweden has approved Tesla to test FSD on public roads, a clear signal that countries are beginning to embrace autonomy. Yet, in the U.S., significant opportunities remain untapped. From Chicago to Minneapolis, Charlotte to Tampa, major metro markets still await large-scale robotaxi deployments.Episode Chapters0:00 FSD 147:30 Preliminary NHTSA Tesla Investigation 12:50 FSD Approval in Sweden 14:56 Waymo Eyes Minnesota Expansion 17:07 Potential Waymo Expansion Markets22:18 Wayve Correction 22:47 DoorDash27:05 Lyft / Tensor Auto Partnership 31:35 Aurora’s Warning Triangle Waiver36:12 Next WeekRecorded on Friday October 10, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Varun Jain, Of Counsel, K&L Gates joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why the next 15 months will define autonomous vehicle policy in America. With new leadership at NHTSA and growing interest in Congress, Varun outlines why the next 15 months will be pivotal for establishing a national autonomous vehicle framework. From updating outdated FMVSS standards to expanding autonomous vehicle testing authority, and with proposed legislation such as the Self-Drive Act, America Drives Act, and Autonomous Vehicle Acceleration Act, a comprehensive federal framework may finally be within reach.Throughout the conversation, Varun emphasizes that the momentum for autonomy is shifting from concept to mainstream adoption. He and Grayson explore how public acceptance, economic opportunity, and clear messaging can drive the next wave of policy action, comparing the potential trajectory of autonomous vehicles to the rapid regulatory turnaround that benefited crypto. The discussion underscores that safety, job creation, and U.S. competitiveness all hinge on one thing; passing a national autonomous vehicle framework that includes trucks over 10,001 pounds.Episode Chapters0:00 The Road to Autonomy Introduction0:23 Autonomous Vehicle Policy Outlook12:37 Why is Now the Time for a National Autonomous Vehicle Framework?17:31 Activating Public Engagement 23:04 Job Creation 24:45 Learning from the Crypto Industry 28:51 Messaging 31:40 What Will it take to get a National Autonomous Vehicle Framework?35:56 Managing Regulations 41:25 When go we get a National Autonomous Vehicle Framework?Recorded on Friday, September 26, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss the accelerating global expansion of robotaxis. In London, Wayve is proving its adaptable, AI-powered autonomous system can navigate complex roadways, from double roundabouts to unpredictable pedestrian interactions without reliance on LiDAR.Wayve’s strategy of working hand-in-hand with OEMs sets it apart from Tesla’s vision-only approach, allowing flexibility depending on manufacturer demands. At the same time, institutional investors are beginning to pay more attention to the autonomous vehicles, particularly focusing not just on the technology, but on broader ecosystem of energy, fleet management, and vehicle depreciation that will define the autonomy economy.Meanwhile, the Middle East is rapidly positioning itself as an autonomy hub. Dubai has granted Baidu Apollo permits with an eye toward fully driverless operations by 2026, while at the same time Uber introduced an autonomous vehicle tier in Abu Dhabi.As the U.K., EU, and UAE push ahead on autonomy, the race to define the global robotaxi market is intensifying, reshaping not just mobility, but the economics underpinning the future of global autonomous vehicle fleets.Episode Chapters0:00 Live from London3:02 Wayve in London10:47 UK & EU Autonomous Vehicle Regulations 13:20 Moove & the Management of Autonomous Vehicles 17:44 UK AV Market18:47 Waymo in New York 21:29 D.C. Shutdown 22:48 D.C. Politics of Tesla FSD26:23 Kodiak28:21 Mobileye32:47 EV Sales34:32 AVs in the UAE38:11 Next WeekRecorded on Thursday, October 2, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Martyn Briggs, Director, Thematic Investing Strategy, Bank of America joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why 2035 might be the year the car peaks and what that means for the market. Breakthroughs in AI, falling sensor costs, and favorable regulation have shifted autonomy from a “moonshot” to a fast-emerging industry and soon, a global economy that we call the autonomy economy. During the conversation Grayson and Martyn explore Bank of America’s forecast of a $1.2 trillion total addressable market for autonomous vehicles by 2040, spanning not only passenger cars but also logistics, ports, mining, and agriculture.They discuss how generative AI, simulation, and neural networks are accelerating deployment and why autonomy is becoming a critical solution to labor shortages worldwide. The conversation also highlights regional adoption trends, the geopolitics shaping the autonomous vehicle race, and the more than $200 billion already invested since 2010, signaling a clear shift into commercialization and long-term opportunities for both technology developers and investors.Episode Chapters0:00 The Road to Autonomy Introduction0:23 Bank of America: The Future of Autonomous Vehicles Report10:26 UK Public Opinion on Autonomous Vehicles 16:24 Autonomous Vehicle Market Constraints 18:03 Autonomous Vehicles and Tourism20:20 Foxconn22:42 Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicles and the Growth of Licensing 28:05 The Growing Autonomy Markets34:39 Autonomous Trucking38:57 Robotaxi Costs41:33 Peak Car and Increasing Autonomous Vehicle Investments 46:57 Institutional Investors 51:38 AI Data54:56 Chinese Autonomous Vehicle Market58:59 Autonomous Vehicles ChatGPT MomentRecorded on Thursday, September 25, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss the upcoming release of Tesla FSD 14, Waymo’s potential expansion to London and Nuro taking delivery of their first Lucid-built robotaxi.What will the highly anticipated release of FSD 14 (Supervised) mean for the market? Could reduced driver monitoring signal that Tesla is inching closer to FSD Unsupervised? One thing is clear no matter what, Tesla’s vertical integration and production scale position it to deploy robotaxis faster than anyone, including Waymo, which remains dependent on its manufacturing partners. Later the conversation then turns to Waymo’s London ambitions and what this expansion could reveal about its evolving relationship with Uber. As for Uber, where do they ultimately want to go in autonomy, and how do they want the market to perceive their strategy? Is it time to acknowledge they won’t be over reliant on Waymo to scale, and instead focus on growing the Nuro/Lucid partnership globally? The answers aren’t yet clear, but the possibilities are endless as Uber expands deeper into the robotaxi market.Episode Chapters0:00 FSD 146:44 Waymo Eyes London Expansion9:17 Does Uber Launch Robotaxis in Nashville without Waymo?11:35 Waymo Market Predictions15:13 Tesla Market Predictions17:53 Amazon’s Continued Commitment to Zoox23:26 Nuro Takes Delivery of First Lucid-Built Robotaxi28:43 Nissan ProPilot powered by Wayve31:08 Kodiak Goes Public32:22 Next WeekRecorded on Thursday, September 25, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Chuck Price, President, AI Kinetics joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss Bot Auto’s successful 40-mile, fully autonomous run with no human in the cab or operating the vehicle remotely.In what Chuck Price calls a “watershed event,” Bot Auto successfully completed a driver-out run in under two years with less than $45 million in funding, compared to other competitors which are currently spending $600 million+ a year.Bot Auto’s accomplishment could have broad implications for the autonomous trucking industry in terms of technological roadmaps and commercialization strategies. How they achieved this milestone with such limited resources will become a central question throughout the autonomy markets.Episode Chapters0:00 The Road to Autonomy Introduction0:23 Bot Auto Goes Driver-Out3:22 The Role of OEMs in an Autonomous Trucking World7:20 After Driver-Out, What’s Next for Bot Auto?12:54 Building an Autonomous Trucking Business16:11 Rethinking the OEM Deal: When is the Right Time to Partner?19:43 Contract Manufacturing25:39 Ripple Effects of Bot Auto Going Driver-Out31:38 AI Unlock33:17 Proof Points37:50 Tesla Semi43:18 Current State of the Autonomous Trucking Industry45:51 Key TakeawayRecorded on Thursday, September 18, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Lyft’s dramatic return to the big leagues of the autonomous vehicle industry through a surprise partnership with Waymo in Nashville, including fleet management, sending Lyft stock soaring 20% while Uber dropped 5%.Grayson and Walt examine the strategic implications of this non-exclusive deal, where a shared fleet will operate across both Lyft and Waymo networks, with Lyft leveraging its Flexdrive subsidiary for fleet management. This deal, marks Waymo’s second partnership with Lyft, correcting widespread media reports that overlooked a small 2019 Phoenix pilot program that quietly disappeared from public view.The conversation expands into Waymo’s incremental progress at San Francisco Airport (SFO) which is limited to the “kiss and fly” area rather than curbside access, and what this signals for Waymo’s pending highway operations. Grayson predicts Waymo will begin operating on highways in the Bay Area by December 2025, while they debate sensor stack limitations that may be preventing current Jaguar fleets from highway deployment. Grayson and Walt also analyze Bot Auto‘s milestone achievement of a fully driverless 40-mile commercial run accomplished with just $45 million in funding, contrasting this efficiency against billion-dollar competitors still operating with safety drivers. The episode concludes with Tesla and Uber’s freight partnership, which Walt characterizes as a potential “Trojan horse” for Tesla’s autonomous trucking ambitions.Episode Chapters0:00 Lyft / Waymo Partnership7:01 Lyft / Waymo History 8:39 Nashville Market 12:17 Impact on the Uber / Waymo Relationship 15:31 Waymo’s SFO Expansion 17:13 Waymo’s “Great Highway Expansion” 20:39 Waymo’s Emerging Zeekr Risk in Tennessee 23:00 Waymo’s Airport Unlocks 25:25 Bot Auto Goes Driver-Out29:30 Going Driver-Out without an OEM Deal33:47 Tesla Semi / Uber Freight Partnership 37:24 Next WeekRecorded on Thursday, September 18, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Qasar Younis, CEO and Peter Ludwig, CTO, Co-Founders of Applied Intuition joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why Applied Intuition continues to be one of the most interesting companies in autonomy.The conversation explores Applied Intuition’s growing portfolio of partnerships, including a major deal with Komatsu and the launch of their new SDS (self-driving system for automotive). Qasar and Peter share how first-principles thinking, diversification across verticals, and a relentless focus on engineering have allowed the company to expand while continually de-risking the business.As OEMs weigh the long-running build-versus-buy debate around autonomous driving systems, China’s automakers are rapidly advancing their capabilities with a strong emphasis on in-vehicle software. From Tesla’s software-driven model to legacy OEMs navigating the transition to software-defined vehicles, this episode of The Road to Autonomy highlights how Applied Intuition’s Vehicle OS and SDS offerings are designed to meet automakers where they are today, while positioning them for what’s next.In a future where software increasingly defines brand and customer experience, Applied Intuition is building the infrastructure that will power both vehicles and autonomy. Episode Chapters0:00 What’s Next for Applied Intuition? 1:44 Self-Driving for Automotive (SDS)7:15 Managing Risks12:45 Komatsu Partnership16:32 Breakthrough Technology 21:38 Vehicle OS23:48 OpenAI Partnership25:05 L2/L2+ Demand32:42 Licensing Autonomous Driving Systems35:18 Maintaining SDS42:50 Cadillac44:09 Does Software Defines a Brand? 46:10 Planning for Automotive Software 49:29 What’s NextRecorded on Friday, September 5, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.