University of Cambridge Professor Colin Lizieri: Smarter Investment Decisions

Send us a text99% of real estate investors say the model tells the truth.But in practice, the data is messy.And the herd is loud.3 weeks ago, I got to interview a real estate finance hero of mine:@ Colin Lizieri - Professor of Real Estate Finance At the @ university of Cambridge.And a global authority on how markets really price risk.In 20 minutes, we dug into:→ Signal vs noiseWhy real estate data is so unreliable And quick checks to make sure your assumptions actually stack.→ Herd-driven mispricingReal examples - pre-GFC, life sciences, “new paradigm” storiesAnd how to tell if you’re investing on evidence or FOMO.→ Bias in ICsHow strong personalities bend modelsAnd simple fixes: written views before IC, a named devil’s advocate,And backtesting deals where you overruled the numbers.If you’re an institution or serious SMEtrying to avoid buying at the wrong price / wrong timethis one’s worth a listen - link below.This episode is in association with (and thanks to) Lloyds.In association with:https://www.lloydsbank.com/business/industry-expertise/real-estate.html?utm_source=The+Return&utm_medium=podcast+partnership&utm_campaign=sponsored+episodeGuest LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/colin-lizieri-996694214/Host LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/

Send us a textMost housing schemes don’t stack in this market. Those that do get three things right.On the latest episode of @ The Return, @ Andy Garnett (CEO, Breck Homes) and @ Dale Parkinson (@ Lloyds Bank) shared what they’re seeing on schemes that actually work:- Buy smart - not lateSecure land before planning (e.g. through options), or buy at a genuine discount when the timing is right (e.g. around budget changes)(For 20–30% margins vs <10% if you pay full “with planning” market price.)- Do more work upfrontThe best developers front-load the effort: constraints and layout, valuation feedback, historic issues, flood risk, plus sensitivities (rates, delays, costs).(All before the offer, to protect margins and avoid surprises later.)- Move fast and stand by your numberIn a slow market, sellers value certainty over a slightly higher priceWe also covered: - Why relying on a single scheme is a silent killer for developers - Where the best opportunities of this cycle might beHuge thanks to Andy and Dale for a rare, candid conversation - full of ideas you can apply tomorrow, not theory.Listen via link in commentsThis episode is in association with (and thanks to) Lloyds.In association with:https://www.lloydsbank.com/business/industry-expertise/real-estate.html?utm_source=The+Return&utm_medium=podcast+partnership&utm_campaign=sponsored+episodeGuest LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andy-garnett-b8308414/Host LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/

Send us a textIt’s hard to make housing developments stack in today’s market.Build costs are upPolicies are changingPlanning is a dragging.So I asked Alex Notay -Chair of the Radix Big Tent Housing Commission and one of the most respected strategic voices in UK housing -what it really takes to deliver 1,000 homes per day.She shared the big lessons on the podcast, including:Treat housing as national infrastructure - not just a market product.Planning + policy + funding must operate as one ecosystem.Solve for delivery capability, not just land and capital.Communication matters - complexity without clarity kills momentum.The biggest risk in the sector? Unintended consequences from siloed decisions.If you’re trying to develop or retrofit UK housing over the next 2–5 years, this conversation is a powerful scene-setter - first published almost a year ago.Listen in.This episode is in association with (and thanks to) Lloyds.In association with:https://www.lloydsbank.com/business/industry-expertise/real-estate.html?utm_source=The+Return&utm_medium=podcast+partnership&utm_campaign=sponsored+episodeGuest LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexandranotayparr/Host LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/

Send us a textPeople say the housing market is broken.Homes England aims to fix it.It touches 1 in 4 new homes.I spoke to ex-CEO Peter Denton CBE.About how developers and housing providers Use Homes England support to build more homes.We covered: - What it is. Who it serves. How it helps.(From grants to Compulsory Purchase powers.) - How to frame your ask for success.(Lead with the market failure you’ll unlock.) - How to avoid common mistakes.(Respect procurement and social impact metrics.Don’t ‘goal-seek’ viability after overpaying for land.)This episode is in association with (and thanks to) Lloyds.In association with:https://www.lloydsbank.com/business/industry-expertise/real-estate.html?utm_source=The+Return&utm_medium=podcast+partnership&utm_campaign=sponsored+episodeGuest LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterdenton71/ Host LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/

Send us a textIt's hard to scale in real estate Without a big budget, expensive team or endless meetings.I asked Kelly Bream A multi-time founder and ex-COO, BidwellsHow she has grown multiple real estate businesses from local to national. She shared the playbook for local to national growth on the podcast, including: - People > platforms first.Hire complements (e.g. brand/marketing), not clones. - Standardise the boring; localise the value.Central compliance/process. Local nuance + relationships.- What and where, before how.Win work before the tooling is perfect. - Measure what matters early.Lead conversion, cash runway - not vanity metrics.This episode is in association with (and thanks to) Lloyds.In association with: https://www.lloydsbank.com/business/industry-expertise/real-estate.html?utm_source=The+Return&utm_medium=podcast+partnership&utm_campaign=sponsored+episodeGuest LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelly-bream-5b4aa541/Host LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/

Send us a textAnna Clare Harper is joined by Hayley Rees, Managing Director at £50bn+ Pension Insurance Corporation.In Anna’s words: There’s lots of advice for private investors.Almost nothing on how big institutions back UK housing.Yet it’s a major growth area.So I asked Hayley (MD at £50bn+ insurer PIC) what actually works.We covered:How to choose investments: Compare returns to UK government bonds (gilts). Avoid 10 year projects, as there’s a lot of competition for 10 year money. Look for ‘relative value’ - extra returns over 20-30 years.How to structure deals: Set them up to pay steady, long-term income that matches pension promises.Case study – Miller’s Quay: A simple lease helped unlock 500 homes.Fix viability first: The hardest thing today is making the numbers work before you start. Teams who solve this win.Listen for lessons from £14bn+ invested across UK housing. In association with: https://www.ukreiif.com/Guest website: https://www.pensioncorporation.com/Guest LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hayleyrees1/?originalSubdomain=ukHost LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/

Send us a textRichard Donnell, Executive Director at Zoopla joined Anna Clare Harper to share what the latest rental market data means for investors, and how to underwrite real estate deals with the right rent growth assumptions.Topics include:Rent growth has slowed - why and what next for UK rentalsUnderwriting rents to earnings, not history or inflationThe most invest-able places (and EPC grades) Renters Rights Bill opportunities and risksWe also covered what strategy Richard would invest inWith the benefit of market-leading data:“I’d put £100m into mid-market second-hand homes Near cities in the Midlands and North.”Thanks to Alto Software Group, sponsors of this mini-seriesSponsor offer: bit.ly/offer-altoGuest website: zoopla.co.uk Guest LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-donnell/ Host LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/Host website: annaclareharper.com

Send us a textRiccardo Ianucci-Dawson, CEO of £50m Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Alto Software Group, joined Anna Clare Harper for this episode.It’s hard to get real estate deals done in 2025.With caution, fall-throughs and zombie pricing.So some smart investors are buying real estate businesses.Not just assets.@Riccardo Ianucci-Dawson is CEO of AltoA £50m ARR estate agency CRM powering 25,000 agents.We discussed:How smart investors are growing in 2025Top leadership lessons from raising a daughter with autismWhat he has learned scaling and selling 3 businesses before age 35.P.S. Thanks to Alto, sponsors of this mini-series of The Return.Guest website: https://www.altosoftware.co.uk/ // bit.ly/offer-alto Guest LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/riccardoid/Host LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/

Send us a textMartin Wolf CBE is Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times.Described as “the most important economics commentator in the world.”I had such fun recording this. Thank you for sending in your questions.If you’re a real estate investor, policymaker or fellow economics nerd, this episode is for you.We covered:The costs and benefits of land/property taxes.→ The right thing to do, but destabilising?How house price increases don't create growth.→ They transfer wealth from young buyers to older owners. Cities like London can't be torn down and re-built.→ Investors must embrace retrofit, urban intensification and greenfield development around stations. Career advice:→ “Choose something that stimulates you. If it bores you, you’ll be bad at it.”Guest website: https://www.ft.com/martin-wolfGuest Twitter: https://x.com/martinwolf_Host LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/Host website: greenresi.com 

Send us a textAnna Clare Harper joined Charlie Martin on his podcast, The Responsible Edge.In Anna’s words:There’s a £2.2 trillion UK housing opportunity Unlocked using clever automation and AIBut hiding in plain sight:Existing private and social homesThat need upgrading quickly.AI can help analyse portfolios To make fast, reliable decisions.So analysing 10,000 homes takes hours, not months.But, TBT - AI has its limits e.g. in construction.I explored this with Charlie Martin on The Responsible Edge podcast.As well as the commercial case for inclusion. This is a key theme in Charlie’s podcast.It also underpins a new programme I am working on. Guest website: https://theresponsibleedge.com/Guest LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/charliekmartin/Host LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annaclareharper/Host website: greenresi.com