No, The Fed Wont Hike Because of Oil

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the economic impact of the war in Iran, a weak jobs report, and what it means for oil, inflation, and the timing of the next rate cut. The cushion the economy has relied on for the past few years may be gone, and the margin for error is getting much smaller.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws some parallels between the winter olympics and happenings in the US Market. Gold, Silver, Bronze and Stoat are awarded.  Big congrats to USA Men's and Women's Hockey Teams who took home Gold this Winter Olympics! Link to Newsletter to see graphs referenced. 

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the SaaSpocalypse, 3 key take aways from the Jobs Report, how (& why) we are in a disinflationary environment right now and how all of that will determine if the Fed cuts this year. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP breaks down the 3 things you absolutely need to know about Kevin Warsh being nominated as the new Fed Chair and can Thom Tillis block his nomination like he said he will. 

Miss the Fed meeting today? We've got you!  We translate all the Fed-speak and highlight our favorite moments and key takeaways - like what advice J Powell has for the next Fed Chair. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what some of you may have forgotten...the Fed meeting is this week! We cover the Supreme Court's take on the Lisa Cook case, 10T behaviours, China "dumping" Treasurys and info about caps that our floating rate borrowers might be interested in.  Here is the link for the Pensford Cap Pricer that we discussed.  See you all Wednesday night for the FOMC recap!

We know this is a little early to call, but this will be the most important episode of the year. So if you listen to nothing else, listen to this one. Shocking news came out late Sunday night. This has literally never happened since the existence of the Federal Reserve. The Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. In this episode we discuss the historical impact of this move and the impact it may have. We also reveal something that had JP completely shook. You can't make this up folks, 2026 is off to an unprecedented start.  Link to Jerome Powell's statement  And we will touch on this again, but we mentioned the LoanBoss redesigned website and completely rebuilt software.  So if you want to check it out - here you go. 

On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we examine today's Fed meeting, the dissents, the jobs realization, J Powell's press conference and what it all means for current market conditions and in 2026. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws a parallel between the Penn State and Fed search for their next leader. Then we jump into what to expect at this week's meeting and a quick look ahead to next year's rate expectations. We'll be back Wednesday for a recap of the Fed meeting.  For those that are curious...here's the calendar reminder screenshot. (if I could insert a facepalm emoji here I would)