Episode 223 — Will the Chinese Defense Surge Continue? Insights for 2025

Episode Summary: The Mitchell Institute team shares insights from the AFA Warfare Symposium, in Aurora, CO—it was the spot for air and space power professionals this week. Hear from Gen Kevin Chilton, USAF (ret), Lt Gen Dave Deptula, USAF (ret), Heather Penney, and Charles Galbreath as they discuss the crucial messages coming from Chief of Space Operations Gen Chance Saltzman and Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen David Allvin. We also explore the Air Force’s new force design, the challenges of operating in space as a contested domain, the imperative to enhance space domain awareness, updates on air and missile defense, the nuclear triad, and operational space testing and training, plus logistical challenges in the Pacific, the shortage of munitions, lessons from the front lines in Ukraine, and more. Credits: Host: Heather “Lucky” Penney, Senior Resident Fellow, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Producer: Shane Thin  Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey Guest: Lt Gen David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.), Dean, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Guest: Gen Kevin P. Chilton, USAF (Ret.), Explorer Chair, The Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence (MI-SPACE) Guest: Charles Galbreath, Senior Resident Fellow for Space Studies, The Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence (MI-SPACE)   Air Force and Space Force Vectors for the Incoming Trump Defense Team AFA Colorado videos coming soon. Links: Subscribe to our Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3GbA5Of Website: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MitchellStudies Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mitchell.Institute.Aerospace LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3nzBisb Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mitchellstudies/ #MitchellStudies #AerospaceAdvantage #AFA #MilitaryLeadership Thank you for your continued support!

Episode Summary: In this episode, Heather “Lucky” Penney chats with members of the Mitchell Institute team about the latest air and space power developments in Washington DC. We explore President Trump’s defense priorities, including recent top defense leadership changes. The team also provides a Ukraine update and assess where defense issues stand in Congress, especially the budget. Another major development includes Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s defense budget guidance and what it means for the Air Force and Space Force. Part of this includes defense civilian workforce reductions. On the operational front, we discuss the latest Minuteman ICBM test launch and broader triad issues. We also provide a Spacepower update—a lot has been going on in that domain. Finally, we look at the next generation advanced propulsion (NGAP) contract awards and explain why these efforts are critical for tomorrow’s combat airpower. Credits: Host: Heather “Lucky” Penney, Senior Resident Fellow, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Producer: Shane Thin  Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey Guest: Lt Gen David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.), Dean, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Guest: Jennifer "Boots" Reeves, Senior Resident Fellow for Space Studies, The Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence (MI-SPACE) Guest: Todd “Sledge” Harmer, Senior Vice President, American Defense International Guest: Anthony “Lazer” Lazarski, Principal, Cornerstone Government Affairs   Trump administration orders Pentagon to plan for sweeping budget cuts US Space Force reveals 1st look at secretive X-37B space plane in orbit (photo) Links: Subscribe to our Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3GbA5Of Website: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MitchellStudies Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mitchell.Institute.Aerospace LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3nzBisb Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mitchellstudies/ #MitchellStudies #AerospaceAdvantage #Politics #Hill #Trump Thank you for your continued support!

Episode Summary: In this episode, Heather “Lucky” Penney discusses why the Air Force has a chronic pilot shortfall and solutions to solve it with Lt Gen Joseph Guastella, USAF (Ret) and Lt Gen Marc Sasseville, USAF (Ret). Bottom line: the Air Force’s pilot corps is now too small to sustain a healthy combat force that can prevail in a peer conflict and meet the nation’s other national security requirements. Air Force leaders recognize the shortfall and have worked hard to address it, but underlying and external factors persist. Effective joint force operations demand robust combat airpower. Pilot experience is critical to this effort. Join us to understand what’s driving these challenges and what defense leaders and Congress need to do to fix it. Credits: Host: Heather “Lucky” Penney, Senior Resident Fellow, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Producer: Shane Thin  Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey Guest: Lt Gen Joseph Guastella, USAF (Ret) Guest: Lt Gen Marc Sasseville, USAF (Ret) Link to Related Reading Links: Subscribe to our Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3GbA5Of Website: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MitchellStudies Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mitchell.Institute.Aerospace LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3nzBisb Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mitchellstudies/ #MitchellStudies #AerospaceAdvantage #China #Update Thank you for your continued support!

Episode Summary: In this episode, Heather “Lucky” Penney discusses the latest Chinese security developments with Mitchell Institute Senior Fellow Mike Dahm. Whether discussing the creation of a new service branch focused on space—the PLA’s Aerospace Force; continued development of their nuclear arsenal; or the “Christmas surprise” flight of multiple new combat aircraft—2024 was a busy and consequential one for the Chinese defense establishment. We explore these developments, take a look at what might transpire in 2025, and consider how this should factor into U.S. defense decision making. Credits: Host: Heather “Lucky” Penney, Senior Resident Fellow, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Producer: Shane Thin  Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey Guest: J. Michael "JDAM" Dahm, Senior Resident Fellow for Aerospace and China Studies, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Links: Subscribe to our Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3GbA5Of Website: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MitchellStudies Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mitchell.Institute.Aerospace LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3nzBisb Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mitchellstudies/ #MitchellStudies #AerospaceAdvantage #China #Update Thank you for your continued support!

Episode Summary: In this episode, Heather “Lucky” Penney discusses the rising strategic importance of the Arctic with Maj. Gen. Mark Piper, USAF, NORAD Deputy Director of Operations; BGen James Hawthorne, RCAF, NORAD Deputy Director Strategy, Policy and Plans; and Brig. Gen. Houston Cantwell, USAF (Ret.) of our Mitchell Institute team. With Russia and China aggressively increasing their Arctic military and civilian activities, America must take notice. Although NORAD stands ready to deter and defend from attack, their mission is challenged by aging radar and command and control systems. This episode highlights challenges with domain awareness, air and missile defense, and maintaining relationships with fellow Arctic nations. Credits: Host: Heather “Lucky” Penney, Senior Resident Fellow, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Producer: Shane Thin  Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey Guest: Brig Gen Houston "Slider" Cantwell, USAF (Ret.), Senior Resident Fellow for Airpower Studies, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Guest: Maj Gen Mark "Pied" Piper, USAF, NORAD Deputy Director of Operations Guest: Brig Gen James Hawthorne, RCAF, NORAD Deputy Director of Strategy, Policy, and Plans Links: Subscribe to our Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3GbA5Of Website: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MitchellStudies Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mitchell.Institute.Aerospace LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3nzBisb Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mitchellstudies/ #MitchellStudies #AerospaceAdvantage #Arctic #Air #Defense Thank you for your continued support!

Episode Summary: In this episode, Heather “Lucky” Penney chats with members of the Mitchell Institute team about air and space power issues through the congressional lens. Not only is Washington DC seeing the arrival of President Trump, but the year is also seeing major changes on Capitol Hill. What will this mean for programs like the F-35, B-21, and Sentinel? Will the Space Force be able to move forward developing offensive and defensive capabilities? Questions also exist regarding the budget. How will FY25 funding be resolved? Will there be a defense spending boost? We also explore recent remarks by former Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall and Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen David Allvin—both of whom have been increasingly direct about the need for more resources. Credits: Host: Heather “Lucky” Penney, Senior Resident Fellow, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Producer: Shane Thin  Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey Guest: Lt Gen David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.), Dean, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Guest: Charles Galbreath, Senior Resident Fellow for Space Studies, The Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence (MI-SPACE) Guest: Todd “Sledge” Harmer, Senior Vice President, American Defense International Guest: Jeff  "Rowli" Rowlison, VP, Space & Intel Programs, American Defense International Guest: Anthony “Lazer” Lazarski, Principal, Cornerstone Government Affairs   President Trump—Reverse The Air Force Nosedive & Boost The Space Force Want Combat Airpower? Then Fix the Air Force Pilot Crisis   Links: Subscribe to our Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3GbA5Of Website: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MitchellStudies Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mitchell.Institute.Aerospace LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3nzBisb Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mitchellstudies/ #MitchellStudies #AerospaceAdvantage #rendezvous #administration Thank you for your continued support!

Episode Summary: In this episode, Doug Birkey chats with Lt. Gen. David Deptula, USAF (Ret.); Maj. Gen. Larry Stutzriem, USAF (Ret.); Mark Gunzinger; and JV Venable about key considerations that President Trump’s defense team, especially the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of the Air Force, should be thinking about when it comes to airpower. It's clear that the Air Force needs to modernize faster so it can grow its combat capability and capacity. More cannot be done with less any longer. The Mitchell team also discusses the need to improve readiness. For many years, defense officials defended the mantra of divesting to invest in future capabilities. That approach, however, left the Air Force as the smallest, oldest, and least ready than at any other point in its history. This is a recipe for disaster. The Trump Administration and Congress must resource the Air Force sufficiently so it can reverse that decline and rebuild the service to meet its requirements laid out by the National Defense Strategy. Without adequate airpower, the nation risks losing future conflicts. We also explore core factors tied to Air Force identity and how service leaders can best articulate the value that airpower presents to the nation. There’s a lot to discuss, and this is an episode you won’t want to miss! Credits: Host: Douglas Birkey, Executive Director, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Producer: Shane Thin Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey Guest: Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.), Dean, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Guest: Maj. Gen. Larry "Stutz" Stutzriem, USAF (Ret.), Director of Research, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Guest: Mark "Gonzo" Gunzinger, Director of Future Concepts and Capability Assessments, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Guest: John "JV" Venable, Senior Resident Fellow, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Links: Subscribe to our Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3GbA5Of Website: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MitchellStudies Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mitchell.Institute.Aerospace LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3nzBisb Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mitchellstudies/ #MitchellStudies #AerospaceAdvantage #airpower #defense #administration Thank you for your continued support!

Episode Summary: In this episode, Doug Birkey chats with Gen. Kevin Chilton, USAF (Ret.); Lt. Gen. David Deptula, USAF (Ret.); Jennifer "Boots" Reeves; and Charles Galbreath about key considerations President Trump’s defense team, especially the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of the Air Force, should be thinking about when it comes to spacepower. We all know that President Trump created the Space Force in his first term. It’s been just over five years since that key decision. A lot has happened since then. The next few years are going to be especially impactful when it comes to spacepower. To put it bluntly, every facet of America’s national security requires space. We need to recognize the challenges and opportunities facing Guardians and work to strengthen the hand we’re empowering them to play. Services are not built overnight. We’re playing the long game, but every step matters. Credits: Host: Douglas Birkey, Executive Director, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Producer: Shane Thin Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey Guest: Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.), Dean, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Guest: Gen. Kevin P. Chilton, USAF (Ret.), Explorer Chair, The Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence (MI-SPACE) Guest: Charles Galbreath, Senior Resident Fellow for Space Studies, The Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence (MI-SPACE) Guest: Jennifer "Boots" Reeves, Senior Resident Fellow for Space Studies, The Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence (MI-SPACE) Links: Subscribe to our Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3GbA5Of Website: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MitchellStudies Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mitchell.Institute.Aerospace LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3nzBisb Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mitchellstudies/ #MitchellStudies #AerospaceAdvantage #space #administration #cabinet #politics Thank you for your continued support!

Episode Summary: In this episode, Heather “Lucky” Penney chats with Maj Gen (Ret) Larry “Stutz” Stutzriem, Col (Ret) Barry “Papa” Murphy, Col (Ret) Robert “Otis” Winkler, and Col (Ret) JV Venable about the Air Force’s current readiness crisis. The severity of the global threat environment demands a fix. This isn't just an Air Force problem. Without effective and reliable airpower, no modern combat operation can succeed. Our guests define the scale and scope of the challenge, leading to a robust discussion of solutions. Credits: Host: Heather “Lucky” Penney, Senior Resident Fellow, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Producer: Shane Thin Editor: Patrick Gensel Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey Guest: Maj Gen Larry Stutzriem, USAF (Ret.), Director of Research, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Guest: Col John "JV" Venable, USAF (Ret.) Guest: Col Robert “Otis” Winkler, USAF (Ret.) Guest: Col Barry “Papa” Murphy, USAF (Ret.) Links: Subscribe to our Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3GbA5Of Website: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MitchellStudies Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mitchell.Institute.Aerospace LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3nzBisb Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mitchellstudies/ #MitchellStudies #AerospaceAdvantage #munitions #industry Thank you for your continued support!

Episode Summary: In this episode, Heather “Lucky” Penney chats with Anduril’s Steve Milano—from their Strike and Air Dominance Sector—and our very own Maj Gen (Ret) Larry “Stutz” Stutzriem about what it means to deliver enhanced munitions capabilities at scale. Anyone who has watched security developments around the globe knows that we’ve got serious issues that risk us being out produced on the war materiel front, especially when it comes to munitions. How the U.S. industrial base can expand its production capacity, while also working to deliver new capabilities that allow air crew the ability to secure a broad range of combat effects? We can’t be complacent building a few hundred munitions a month when the air tasking order will call for tens of thousands over the same period. We all know our stockpiles are at record low levels…so we need to get real about rebuilding and sustaining to meet the new demand signal. Credits: Host: Heather “Lucky” Penney, Senior Resident Fellow, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Producer: Shane Thin Executive Producer: Douglas Birkey Guest: Steve Milano, Anduril Guest: Maj Gen Larry Stutzriem, USAF (Ret.), Director of Research, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Links: Subscribe to our Youtube Channel: https://bit.ly/3GbA5Of Website: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MitchellStudies Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mitchell.Institute.Aerospace LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3nzBisb Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mitchellstudies/ #MitchellStudies #AerospaceAdvantage #munitions #industry Thank you for your continued support!