Brendan Nyhan: Measuring Political Violence Without Panic

Dartmouth's Brendan Nyhan explains why headline-grabbing polls inflate support for "partisan violence" and how careful survey design finds under 10% backing for felony-level force, far less than in many democracies. He traces how elite cues shape perceived threats and warns against pretextual crackdowns. Also: a look at Jimmy Kimmel's removal and a wave of misreads of motives that were actually incidental to the Trump administration's crackdown on those it defines as the left. Produced by Corey Wara Production Coordinator Ashley Khan Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Youtube Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Instagram Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠GIST INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow The Gist List at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pesca⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠

Michael A. Cohen and Jamie Kirchick discuss the Charlie Kirk assassination and the immediate retreat to priors — who’s weaponizing grief, what counts as incitement, and whether “fascistic” vs. “authoritarian” language clarifies or inflames. Plus, the TikTok law end-run and why process crimes don’t move voters the way visible force does. In Goat Grinders: antisemitic conspiracies about Kirk’s murder; presidential pressure to prosecute Letitia James; and one deeply baffling Visa/Christian McCaffrey toaster ad that raises more questions than it protects appliances. Produced by Corey Wara Production Coordinator Ashley Khan Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Youtube Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Instagram Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠GIST INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow The Gist List at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pesca⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack

Christian Duguay, creator of Valley Heat, breaks down how Doug Duguay, his in-show alter ego, works within a 51% fictional universe. Tight sound design and ad-jingle microplots create an absurd world populated with Canadian foosball biker gangs and rogue car washes. Duguay traces the show’s improv roots and why “I’ll take that” became its guiding ethos. Plus: RFK Jr. claims that CDC director Susan Monarez once admitted, “I am untrustworthy.” And in the spiel, Charlie Kirk’s killer has his first court appearance, as the administration all but declares war on leftists. Produced by Corey Wara Production Coordinator Ashley Khan Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Youtube Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Instagram Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠GIST INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow The Gist List at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pesca⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠

Garrett Graff, host of the Long Shadow podcast,  argues that Russia’s 2016 interference was about sowing distrust in U.S. democracy—weakening Clinton if she won, or destabilizing the system either way.  He revisits the Access Hollywood–email leak overlap, the forgotten U.S. warning about Russian meddling, and how other nations have since borrowed the playbook. Also: JD Vance’s opportunistic definition of “the far left,” an Oval Office push for troops in Memphis, and a Booker–Kash Patel shouting match. Produced by Corey Wara Production Coordinator Ashley Khan Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Youtube Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Instagram Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠GIST INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow The Gist List at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pesca⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠

Writer and historian Garrett Graff discusses the fourth season of his podcast Long Shadow, which charts how the internet devolved from a tool of hope to one of outrage and division. He traces that shift to specific corporate choices—especially Facebook and YouTube prioritizing profit by feeding anger and conspiracy. Graff argues that these unregulated algorithms weaponized existing political fractures, often exploited by bad-faith actors like Russia’s Internet Research Agency. Also: reflections on Utah Governor Spencer Cox’s Sunday-show interviews and the futility of legacy media diagnosing social media’s ills, plus a Spiel on missteps, opposition dumps, and the media coverage surrounding the recent assassination. Produced by Corey Wara Production Coordinator Ashley Khan Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Youtube Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Instagram Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠GIST INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow The Gist List at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pesca⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack

Today on The Gist, we air some of Mikes appearance on The Good Fight Club Podcast. Please note that this was recorded on September 10th, before the shooting of Charlie Kirk. You can listen to the rest of the podcast using the link below. The Good Fight Club: Russian Drones in Poland, Low Literacy in Schools, and Can Anyone Rein in Trump? Produced by Corey Wara Production Coordinator Ashley Khan Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Youtube Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Instagram Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠GIST INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow The Gist List at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pesca⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack

Bill McKibben discusses his new book Here Comes the Sun: A Last Chance for the Climate and a Fresh Chance for Civilization, making the case for renewables as civilization’s best hope. He has long argued that we can’t save the planet without a massive overhaul of how we live, but here he answers a challenge to whether that was ever right. McKibben dismisses geoengineering as “junkie’s logic,” yet warns it may be forced if clean energy isn’t embraced quickly. Plus, a reflection on cycles of American political violence—reminders that past eras were bloodier, and that public appetite for violence often diminishes rather than escalates. Produced by Corey Wara Production Coordinator Ashley Khan Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Youtube Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Instagram Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠GIST INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow The Gist List at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pesca⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠

Aaron Sibarium of the Washington Free Beacon reflects on his recent full-hour interview with Charlie Kirk, which aired just a week before Kirk’s assassination. He recalls Kirk’s reach across conservative factions and his surprising focus on debate and voter mobilization rather than pure outrage. The conversation widens to the risks of political violence, misperceptions between parties, and how quickly rhetoric escalates online. Plus, a Spiel on what might finally break the cycle of fear hatred and likely recrimination. Produced by Corey Wara Production Coordinator Ashley Khan Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Youtube Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Instagram Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠GIST INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow The Gist List at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pesca⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠

Ryan Evans, founder of War on the Rocks, breaks down the grinding land war in eastern Ukraine, the tactical role of drones, and how morale and leadership shape the battlefield. He points to Zelensky’s missteps, the weapons still needed, and what “winning the ground” really means. Also: Russia sends drones into Poland, forcing Trump into a test of NATO resolve with Putin watching every move. Plus, for Pesca Plus subscribers, a conversation on Gaza. Come See Mike Pesca at Open Debate Produced by Corey Wara Production Coordinator Ashley Khan Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Youtube Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Instagram Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠GIST INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow The Gist List at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pesca⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠

Filmmaker Nim Shapira discusses Torn, his documentary on the hostage posters put up—and torn down—across New York after October 7th. He reflects on free speech, empathy, and why erasing someone else’s pain won’t shorten a war. Also: a protest in Nepal over a social media ban topples the prime minister. Plus: Israel’s strikes on Hamas leaders in Qatar, where trust craters—and Israel puts its trust in craters. Come See Mike Pesca at Open Debate Produced by Corey Wara Production Coordinator Ashley Khan Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Youtube Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to The Gist Instagram Page: ⁠⁠⁠⁠GIST INSTAGRAM⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow The Gist List at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠Pesca⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Profundities | Mike Pesca | Substack⁠⁠⁠⁠