Two Paths to Value: Short-Term Yield vs. Long-Term Growth in Distressed Markets

 More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter! The argument has long been made that venturing beyond America’s borders will offer investors higher yields. Many foreign companies do pay attractive dividends, but they lack consistency and predictable growth—factors that have kept us from investing overseas. But in this episode, we break the mold and head to the vineyards of France. Greg explores the under-the-radar story of Rémy Cointreau ($REMYY), the cognac maker behind the iconic Rémy Martin brand. What makes this story remarkable isn’t just the 3% dividend yield or the potential for earnings to normalize. It’s the value hiding in plain sight: aging inventory that becomes more valuable with time. With a wide moat and one of the most unique inventory structures we’ve seen, Rémy stands out as a compelling value play with rare downside protection. Markets are mostly efficient—but every now and then, a story slips through the cracks.  Topics Covered:01:46 Exploring Foreign Dividend Opportunities 02:40 Discovering Remy: A Value Play 03:31 A First Look at Rémy’s Dividend and Valuation 06:01 Performance History and the Power of Modest Growth 08:11 Understanding the Cognac Market 11:29 How Cognac Is Made and Why It Matters 16:07 What Is Wrong with Remy? 18:38 Cash Flow, EBIT History, and Financial Strength 22:28 The Inventory Advantage 25:18 Future Growth Potential and Valuation Scenarios 27:49 Three Catalysts for Re-Rating 33:32 Final Thoughts and Takeaways Send us a textSchedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected] & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - XIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!  While dividend growth remains the core of what we do, it’s not the only path to building an income stream. In times of market distress, opportunities emerge that are simply too compelling to ignore. When venturing into troubled waters, the key is to stay disciplined and unemotional. Volatility may test you, but the potential rewards can be worth it. In this episode, Greg explores two distinct approaches to finding value from an income perspective. In the first half, he discusses business development corporations (BDCs), which often offer eye-catching yields north of 10%. Using Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp. ($OCSL) as a case study, he unpacks how BDCs are structured, where their income potential comes from, and why they carry above-average risk. More importantly, he shares why patience and preparation are key to capturing value when these high-yield opportunities go on sale. In the second half, we shift gears back to a more traditional name for dividend growth investors. Greg introduces Sysco Corp. ($SYY), a 50-year dividend payer in the essential world of food distribution. Unlike the high-yield, high-volatility world of BDCs, Sysco represents steady, well-managed growth with consistent operations. Even though the stock appears to have been in a holding pattern over the past few years, it fits squarely into our 10-year framework. In both cases, price discipline is essential. Topics Covered:01:46 – Introduction to BDCs (Business Development Corporations)05:18 – Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp Case Study 14:57 – Knowing What You Own: Risk and Return in Distressed Markets 16:23 – When and How to Buy BDCs 19:22 – Total Return Recap from a Past Investment in Oaktree 24:37 – Transition to Traditional Dividend Growth: Enter Sysco Corp 28:17 – The 10-Year Model: Can Sysco Double? 30:08 – Margin & Capital Efficiency Strengths 32:52 – Comparison to Competitors 35:05 – Valuation and Price-to-Sales History 35:29 – Risks: Cyclicality & Debt Load 38:58 – Why a “Boring” Food Distributor Might Outperform 41:39 – Wrapping Up: Patience, Price, and Knowing What You Own Send us a textSchedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected] & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - XIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!  Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Almost everyone knows that tariffs and trade wars have sent global markets spiraling, with the Dow down 17% and the S&P 500 down 20% from their highs, based on our recording date. While technically that implies we have entered a bear market, it also means better prices for long-term cash flow. It is human nature to get nervous when markets seem to be on the brink of panic, but dividend growth investors should see times like these as a gift.  In this episode, Greg tackles the tough headlines and sinking sentiment in today’s markets. As recession fears grow and the market experiences significant volatility, Greg explains why focusing on sustainable cash flow and quality companies provides stability for long-term investors. From investor psychology to long-term GDP trends, Greg discusses how disciplined dividend investing turns market panic into wealth creation. Later, he highlights our recent purchase of Union Pacific ($UNP) as proof of concept. EDIT: In the episode, Greg mentions that paying $30 for $1 of earnings is about a 2.5% earnings yield. This comment was made in error; the correct number is a 3.33% earnings yield.Topics Covered: [01:00] Why focusing on cash flow provides clarity in a chaotic market[02:48] First quarter portfolio performance and the power of staying invested[05:00] Reframing a bear market: buying cash flow at a discount[06:55] How GDP and earnings trends support long-term optimism[10:17] Why market corrections test your investment mindset[11:50] Comparing stock ownership to rental property — and why we forget it's the same[16:33] Real numbers that contradict the media narrative (household debt, corporate cash, etc.)[24:52] New position: Why we bought Union Pacific and what makes it a dividend powerhouse[28:40] The case for quality, patience, and diversification during uncertainty[31:33] Index funds, dividend ETFs, and staying positioned for the rebound[34:01] The most dangerous investing phrase: "It's different this time"Send us a textSchedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected] & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - XIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

 More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!  Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management After Williams Sonoma reported earnings before market open on March 19th, 2025, we saw their results as an excellent example of how to execute a dividend growth strategy on a day-to-day basis. While we have covered $WSM in several previous episodes, it is a case study on dividend growth investing. In what normally takes 10+ years to deliver to investors, Williams Sonoma has provided us with attractive dividend growth and total return in less than 3 years. In this "express mail" episode, Greg looks at Williams-Sonoma's latest earnings and how recent weakness in the stock price could be a long-term positive for total return. He analyzes how if the stock goes lower, there is room for more share repurchases, which boosts dividend growth and earnings growth. Additionally, he points out that if the stock turns around and goes much higher again, we may consider selling more of the stock. As we stand somewhere in the middle, Greg concludes by looking at where he would buy into the stock again.00:55 Special Episode: Williams Sonoma Earnings Update01:24 Williams Sonoma: A Case Study in Dividend Growth02:33 Strategic Decisions and Market Reactions05:22 Evaluating Dividend Growth and Future Prospects12:27 Conclusion and Investment StrategySend us a textSchedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected] & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - XIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!  Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management While it may be a somewhat misused paraphrase of Warren Buffett's famous baseball analogy, 'fat pitch' is a term often thrown around in investing circles. In most settings, it implies that an investment opportunity is extremely lucrative with a high probability of success—but they are rare. Beyond having the discipline to patiently wait for these opportunities, what does a 'fat pitch' actually look like?In this episode, Greg discusses the concept of 'fat pitches' by exploring the extraordinary long-term performance of Altria (formerly Philip Morris), despite numerous industry challenges and negative headlines. Through a detailed analysis of Altria's historical performance, including its high dividend yield and impressive cash flow management, he emphasizes the timeless principles of dividend growth, patient investing, and compounding. 00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox Podcast02:34 Review of Current Dividend Growth Performance and Market Observations06:13 Case Study: The Success of Philip Morris15:58 Key Takeaways from Philip Morris's Performance24:51 Lessons on Dividend Growth and Compounding32:14 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Send us a textSchedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected] & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - XIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!  Schedule a meeting with us ->  Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Following brief upward momentum after we first bought Hershey, the stock proceeded to slide downward. Cocoa prices remain elevated, and there is significant uncertainty surrounding the short-term impacts on the company's operations. However, Hershey's recent earnings report shows that the company is more resilient than it may appear.Despite a 20% stock decline, Greg emphasizes that there are still many things to like about Hershey. Simply put, there is much more to the story than the current price of cocoa. Going a bit deeper, Greg examines the cocoa supply chain, specifically the impact of weather and geopolitical issues on production in major countries like Ivory Coast, Ecuador, and Ghana, highlighting several factors that suggest a possible future drop in cocoa prices. He further discusses Hershey's superb hedging strategies, strong balance sheet, and potential for high returns through dividends and stock growth within the next decade. Ultimately, Hershey's attractive valuation, dividend yield, and potential dividend growth allow investors to start with an advantage. In closing, Greg presents a Suber Bowl analogy to underscore the patience required for long-term investing, contrasting it with the short-term focus prevalent in current market analysis. 00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox02:16 Revisiting the Hershey Story05:37 Hershey's Market Position and Challenges07:36 Cocoa Market Dynamics12:04 Hershey's Financial Health and Strategy15:29 Investment Strategies and Long-Term Outlook25:50 Rant on Market Commentary and Short-Term Thinking31:14 Super Bowl Analogy and Final Thoughts37:50 Conclusion and Contact InformationSend us a textSchedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected] & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - XIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!  Is there anything predictable about the stock market? If so, how much power or truth does it hold? Do sophisticated models and strategies have a predictive edge? Even if you’re an investor with limited experience, the odds are at least one of these questions has piqued your interest at some point in your investing career.In episode 43, Greg discusses predictability in ETF income and dividend growth. He examines various ETFs tracking the S&P 500, such as SPY, IVV, and VOO, highlighting discrepancies in their dividend growth rates from year to year. Greg emphasizes the importance of not making investment decisions based solely on headline numbers, as these may not tell the full story. The episode also explores the limitations of discounted cash flow models, touching on the challenges of long-term forecasts and the uncertainties of market competition. Ultimately, he advises investors to focus on understanding what they own and cautions against overly sophisticated financial models that may introduce more risk and uncertainty. 00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox00:46 Understanding ETF Predictability01:46 Analyzing S&P 500 Dividend Growth04:09 Comparing Different S&P 500 ETFs10:49 Exploring the S&P 100 and Other Indexes16:57 The Complexity of Enhanced Income ETFs24:27 The Power and Pitfalls of Predictability25:46 Diving into Discounted Cash Flow Models31:13 The Terminal Value Trap38:53 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsSend us a textSchedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected] & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - XIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!  You, the investor, must choose between investing in two companies based on their financial results over two years. One has steady revenue and earnings growth, alongside decent dividend growth. The other experiences moderate financial decline, but boasts strong dividend growth. Given this information beforehand, which would be the better investment? In our final episode of the year, Greg revives the classic game show Let's Make a Deal to illustrate that even if you know the future, some aspects of investing will always be unknowable. Later, Greg continues this theme by discussing broader market valuation, and predictions from various analysts for 2025 and beyond. To tie everything together, Greg concludes the episode by reflecting on a TED Talk that emphasizes the importance of a long-term strategy and the pitfalls of short-term thinking.Happy Holidays from The Dividend Mailbox Team00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox00:46 Let's Make a Deal: Investment Choices02:47 Behind Door Number One: A Declining Company04:54 Behind Door Number Two: A Growing Company05:45 Comparing the Two Companies08:05 Revealing the Companies and Market Insights12:34 When to Sell: Strategies and Considerations19:16 Market Predictions and Analyst Opinions27:43 Long-Term vs Short-Term Investing33:38 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsSend us a textSchedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected] & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - XIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!  The last time the S&P 500 dividend yield was sitting at 1.17% was in February of 2001. Many investors remember the stretched valuations 23 years ago, and even more so, how the following year proved to correct that exuberance. While stock prices are currently hovering around all-time highs, us dividend growth investors targeting a yield of 2.5-3% may find challenges in this environment.Given this, and the uncertainty surrounding the recent presidential election, Greg spends episode 41 reviewing the foundational pillars behind our investment strategy. Even with low yields, the next 10 years of performance can be boiled down to relatively simple math. As GDP expands, corporate earnings grow, which in turn gives investors increasing dividend checks. Through several illustrations of what that looks like in your portfolio, Greg concludes that the dividend growth strategy is alive and well. Later, he reviews some recent actions we have taken, highlighting decisions on selling part of Emerson ($EMR), adding to Hershey ($HSY), and starting a position in Union Pacific ($UNP).00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox00:46 Current Market Overview001:54 The Drivers Behind The Dividend Growth Strategy005:10 Historical Performance Analysis007:52 Future Predictions and Assumptions010:28 Dividend Growth vs. Buybacks12:15 Portfolio Growth & Return Illustration20:16 Market Yields, Challenges, and Opportunities27:46 Our Recent Portfolio Actions35:16 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsSend us a textSchedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected] & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - XIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!  The corporate life cycle is an important yet often overlooked factor in investing. Like all things, companies age over time, with each phase having its own pros and cons. In this episode, Greg explores the corporate life cycle's impact on dividend growth investing. Using research from Morgan Stanley and Aswath Damodaran, he covers various stages of a company's life, including startup, young growth, high growth, mature growth, mature stable, and decline— with examples from companies like Rivian, Nvidia, Microsoft, PepsiCo, GE, IBM, Intel, AT&T, and Tesla. Highlights include the prolonged profitability in maturity phases, industry-specific aging rates, and risks associated with corporate debt and large acquisitions. Greg emphasizes understanding a company's phase for strategic investment decisions and the critical role of suitable CEOs.00:00 Introduction01:12 The Importance of Understanding the Corporate Life Cycle02:10 Morgan Stanley's Five Stages of the Corporate Life Cycle02:58 Key Metrics in the Corporate Life Cycle05:39 Profitability and Debt in Different Stages08:37 Cost of Equity and Capital in Mature Companies11:10 Aswath Damodaran's Six Stages of the Corporate Life Cycle14:08 Examples of Companies in Different Life Cycle Stages20:15 Dividend Investing: High Growth to Mature Growth21:48 Mature Stable Phase: Dividend Income and Growth22:56 Challenges in Mature Stable Phase24:24 Decline Phase: Managing Declining Cashflow25:44 Narrative vs. Numbers in Company Growth29:08 Pricing and Valuation Across Growth Phases31:59 CEO Roles in Different Growth Phases35:59 Conclusion: Investing Across Lifecycle StagesSend us a textSchedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management If you submit a question to us and we use it in an episode, we will send you an official The Dividend Mailbox Yeti® Tumbler -> Email us at [email protected] & Resources:DCM Investment Reports & ModelsVisit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services.Follow us on:Instagram - Facebook - LinkedIn - XIf you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review