
AI can hand you a confident, polished answer in seconds. So can a stock screener. But a number without context can lead you exactly where you don't want to go.
In Episode 63, Greg walks through what happened when we ran our McDonald's ($MCD) report through an AI model. It flagged a drop in return on invested capital as a sign of trouble. We saw a 12% return during a year the economy shut down and called it a win. Same number, opposite conclusions. The difference was knowing what drove it.
The same trap shows up in dividend screens. General Mills ($GIS), Campbell's ($CPB), Kraft Heinz ($KHC), Smucker's ($SJM), and Conagra ($CAG) all offer attractive yields, yet most of them lost money over a decade when the S&P 500 gained more than 300%. Look underneath and the story is clear: weak returns on capital and a habit of overpaying for growth. Verizon ($VZ) and AT&T ($T) tell a similar story, while Xcel Energy ($XEL) flips it, with low returns today but a real catalyst ahead.
We close with David Booth's book Stay Calm and its first rule: follow the science. Whether it comes from AI, a screener, or a headline, don't trust a number you can't explain.
TOPICS COVERED
[00:41] Introduction
[03:11] AI critiques our McDonald's ($MCD) report.
[07:59] Trust but verify: the limits of AI in investing
[11:34] Listener question: Are dividend opportunities fading?
[15:12] Food stocks: big yields, poor returns ($GIS, $CPB, $KHC, $SJM, $CAG)
[18:54] Verizon ($VZ), AT&T ($T), and Xcel Energy ($XEL)
[22:40] Turnarounds, value traps, and Nvidia ($NVDA)
[26:38] Book review: Stay Calm by David Booth
[30:32] How we're staying invested without overpaying
[31:38] Final takeaway: don't let AI drive you off a cliff
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📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth
Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.
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📧 Questions or comments: [email protected]
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Resources:
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📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models
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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.
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