218 - What should the RBA do?

AICD is proud to announce the launch of a brand new podcast offering - Director Download.  Director Download is a weekly podcast series that keeps directors and senior leaders ahead of evolving governance obligations.  Each episode features conversations with policy experts and leading directors to unpack complex governance challenges and deliver practical insights that can be applied in the boardroom.  You can listen by searching 'Director Download' in your podcast player, or by clicking the links below:  Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033f7mHnHstKVIekaBMT2Y Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/director-download/id1896576074

When the RBA cut rates back in February this year it sounded cautious. This time it sounded confident. At least kind of. It also sounded pretty uncertain about the global economy...but then who isn't these days? This week's episode of the pod gives its quick take on the May 2025 rate cut and the prospects for more to come.  For more insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell head to https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html.

In this week's episode, we unpack the post-election market rally, Trump's unexpected retreat on tariffs and renewed trade talks with China, fresh data on wages and unemployment, and what to expect from next week's RBA meeting. A quick but sharp look at the key economic signals shaping the week. For more from AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, head to: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

The RBA's new Monetary Policy Board meets later this month to consider the case for a second rate cut in the current easing cycle. What will it make of Australia's election campaign, this week's inflation numbers, the recent rash of international forecast downgrades from the IMF, WTO and World Bank, and ongoing global trade policy uncertainty? Still high on Easter chocolate, the pod offers its unsolicited advice. 

Instead of the traditional Easter Egg, the Dismal Science pod has a quick take on the implications of 'Liberation Day' and its aftermath in its Easter basket. It's tariff free! (Note, contents may include some discussion of trade policy tools.) For more economic insights from the AICD's Chief Economist Mark Thirlwell, including his weekly economic update, head to: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html.

In this live from the Australian Governance Summit episode, hosts Raphael Dixon and Mark Thurwal analyze current economic and geopolitical developments. They discuss the "Trump trade" market fluctuations, US CHIPS Act's mixed impact on semiconductor manufacturing, and China's growing chip capabilities. The conversation covers Germany's potential defense spending increase, US steel tariffs affecting Australia, contradictions in US onshoring and immigration policies, and the possibility of talent flowing from the US to countries like Australia. Throughout, they offer practical investment guidance for navigating uncertain markets. Subscribe to Mark's weekly newsletter here

This week on the Dismal Science, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest Australian GDP figures, revealing the end of the per capita recession, though productivity remains a concern with a third consecutive quarter of falling GDP per hour worked. Turning their attention to the global stage, they examine the evolving economic landscape in the United States, with the Atlanta Fed now forecasting contraction and the impact of newly implemented tariffs. They explore how these factors, coupled with significant geopolitical uncertainties including the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine, are contributing to market jitters and a shifting focus away from previous narratives like AI. Finally, they consider the potential economic ramifications of the US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) initiative. Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html  

This week, Raphael and Mark dissect the latest inflation data and react to recent rate cuts, examining whether the soft landing declared by the IMF is truly secure. Mark shares a sneak peek of his upcoming article in Company Director magazine, outlining eight key global uncertainties that could derail the current economic outlook. They explore topics such as diverging central bank rate paths, the impact of a potential Trump administration, the fraying rules-based international system, demographic transitions, technological revolutions (AI, bioscience, energy), the energy transition, state-based armed conflict, and domestic political uncertainty. Despite the risks, is there room for optimism, or are we heading towards a "G-Zero" world? Read Mark's weekly newsletter here: https://www.aicd.com.au/news-media/economic-weekly.html

We're back, and we force Mark to take a victory lap for his February rate cut prediction! We dive into the details of the RBA's decision and its implications for future cuts. Then, we dissect the market freakout following the release of Deepseek's open-source AI model. What does it say about AI market leaders' valuations, the effectiveness of export controls and the future of AI? Finally, we discuss the return of "Tariff Man" and the potential for a Smoot-Hawley moment.