John Heilemann: Did Trump Make an Ominous Shift on Iran?

At home, POTUS shows how much he wants to be like an Arab despot, plastering his mug all over the place and deploying the Justice Department to fatuously claim that Comey’s use of seashell art can rise to a crime. But on Iran, he seems to have backed off his promise of a short war, and he’s making pretty wimpy threats against the regime. Plus, Disney’s new CEO is standing by Kimmel, Barney Frank has a warning for Democrats, and recent polling data is not backing up the Dems’ midterms bullishness—even if voter sentiment is very bad for Trump and the Republicans.John Heilemann joins Tim Miller.show notes Subscribe to The Bulwark's YouTube John's "Impolitic" podcast Tim’s livestream Wednesday at 8pm ET on Substack or YouTube Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and in LA on 5/21: TheBulwark.com/Events

Acting AG Todd Blanche, who watched Pam Bondi get fired, knows exactly what his assignment is: Go after every political enemy Trump wants targeted, and charge them—even without evidence of a crime. At the FBI, officials under Kash have pursued dubious or phony leads while career agents are seething over what the director has done to the place. Plus, the podcastistan wars may be doing real harm to the MAGA movement, influencers in the Trump echo chamber are looking pretty lame in comparison to key right-wing figures who are breaking ranks with him, and the latest on post-overdose looksmaxxer Clavicular.Will Sommer and Carol Leonnig join Tim Miller. show notes Carol's latest reporting on the case of assassination suspect, Cole Allen Carol's book about the Secret Service, "Zero Fail" and her latest, "Injustice" Will's new "False Flag" on Clavicular Will on a wild and unnecessary FBI raid TNL's live pod from Tuesday Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and in LA on 5/21: TheBulwark.com/Events Exclusive $25-off Carver Mat at https://on.auraframes.com/BULWARK. Promo Code THEBULWARK

Trump is a terrible president and he deserves to be criticized, even in personal terms. Our pro-democracy movement has shown time and time again that we can oppose him— and oppose any attempt at violence at the same time. Even putting aside POTUS's own hypocritical calls for violence or his celebrating the deaths of his enemies, Saturday's shooting was related to mental health issues and too easy of access to guns. Plus, Zelensky is the new leader of the free world, Trump looks like he's headed to a humiliating defeat in Iran, the left should work harder to not be false flag cranks, and a look at the Senate map in the context of America Firsters feeling betrayed by Trump's stupid wars and his attempt to redesign D.C. in his image. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.show notes: Monday's "Morning Shots" Ken Klippenstein's reporting on the shooting suspect, which Tim referenced David French on Zelensky (gift) Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and in LA on 5/21: TheBulwark.com/Events For a limited time, get 60% off your first order, plus free shipping, when you head to Smalls.com/THEBULWARK.

Not only is the new hardline regime in Tehran now more likely to go rogue as a nuclear power a la North Korea, ordinary Iranians—who Trump and Bibi initially claimed we were rescuing—are also living under even harsher conditions. At the same time, the war has burned through billions worth of our critical weapons stockpile, a development that surely will figure into China’s calculations vis‐à‐vis Taiwan. This is the moment for Dems to reshape their brand and win back everyday working Americans. Plus, the settlers’ escalating attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank, the Trump administration’s depraved treatment of Afghan refugees, any talk of aid for UAE stinks of Trump family corruption, and Dems need to fix their blue places while simultaneously working to win voters in the red ones.show notes Nick's nonprofit, Kristof Impact Nick's NYT column page Helen Keller International Kristof Farms Tim's playlist Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and LA in May: TheBulwark.com/EventsExclusive $25-off Carver Mat athttps://on.auraframes.com/BULWARK. Promo Code THEBULWARKGet 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to joindeleteme.com/BULWARK and use promo code BULWARK at checkout.

Trump has gone full “1984” with his claim that it’s a good thing that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. He also says that he saved some Iranian women from being executed, which the regime in Tehran called “fake news.” It’s a telling sign of the times when the public can’t figure out whether the White House or the Iranian regime is lying. Speaking of scam artists, Ben joins Tim to discuss his new film on cryptocurrency, "Everyone is Lying to You for Money." The industry is rife with crime, it sorely needs to be regulated, and some of the most unscrupulous people are behind it— including our president. Ben McKenzie and Sarah Matthews join Tim Miller.Upgrade your wallet today! Get 10% Off @Ridge with code THEBULWARK at https://www.Ridge.com/THEBULWARK #RidgepodWhen life feels overwhelming, therapy can help. Sign up and get 10% off at https://BetterHelp.com/THEBULWARK.show notes: More on Ben's film, "Everyone Is Lying to You for Money" Tim's interview with Ben from 2023 Tim and Catherine on Tucker's despicable attack on Catherine David Kirkpatrick on Trump's $4 bil in profiteering off the presidency, mostly from crypto Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and LA in May: TheBulwark.com/Events

Trump's madman antics got him into a game of chicken with Iran, but he's up against people who are even crazier than he is. And he is not likely to get a deal with Tehran that is any better than Obama's nuclear agreement—which Trump called the worst deal in the world. Plus, the Virginia win is another reminder that Dems can effectively play hardball, Kevin Warsh is looking like an alarming pick for the Fed, the media coverage of the mass shooting in Shreveport was almost non-existent, MAGA is obsessed with Mamdani, Sam and Tim have new Cabinet rankings, and is there a way to stop Kushner from making deals with Sharia law countries? Sam Stein joins Tim Miller.show notes Catherine on Warsh failing the big test in his confirmation hearing Will Saletan on the latest anti-MAMDANI bill Jonathan on the national media largely ignoring the mass shooting in Louisiana Tim, Sam, and Sommer on Candace vs. Loomer Tim on the Nuggets pod, CSG Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and LA in May: TheBulwark.com/Events Our listeners get the Harry’s Plus Trial Set for only $10 athttps://www.Harrys.com/THEBULWARK #Harryspod Learn a new language and get up to 60% off  your subscription at Babbel.com/BULWARK

Trump keeps jawboning the markets to try to manage the fallout from the war on Iran, but we have yet to see the full economic impact of his foreign policy misadventure. Oil and gas facilities in the Gulf have been critically damaged and will take years to repair—which will inevitably lead to higher fuel prices. And countries are stockpiling commodities and products like fertilizer, which will also feed inflation. Plus, a new book on the social and economic travails of modern American men.The Ringer's Jordan Ritter Conn and Bloomberg's Tracy Alloway join Tim Miller.show notes Jordan's new book, "American Men" Tracy's podcast, "Odd Lots" "Road from Raqqa," Jordan's book about two Syrian brothers  The NYT story on the Syrian billionaires and their business deals with the Trump family  Jordan's reporting on the heartbeat of resistance in Minneapolis  Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and LA in May: TheBulwark.com/Events Get 20% off when you go to trustandwill.com/BULWARK

Just hang tight: Trump is super close to a deal with an enemy that he handed all the leverage to. Absolutely do not read his steady supply of hollow threats as him begging Iran for a face-saving off-ramp. Meanwhile, back in reality, Iran too can see how desperate Trump is, the war is helping China feel emboldened, and some of our closest post-WWII allies think Beijing is more dependable than the U.S. under Trump. Plus, Hegseth has chosen an ideal time to pick a fight with the secretary of the Army, numerous officials at the FBI are alarmed by Kash's alleged alcohol-induced absences, kudos to Ossoff for the way he talked about corruption and kleptocracy, and more Vance-splaining from the newbie Catholic Veep.Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.show notes Tim’s livestream Monday at 8ET on YouTube or Substack JVL on the "Trump Madman Theory' of the stock market Lauren on the Dems preparing for a potential midterm-year SCOTUS vacancy Tim's 2020 piece on Joe DiGenova  Images of the Poodle Room, Kash's alleged hangout in Vegas Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and LA in May: TheBulwark.com/Events Upgrade your wallet today! Get 10% Off @Ridge with code THEBULWARK at https://www.Ridge.com/THEBULWARK #Ridgepod

The U.S. and Israel started dropping bombs on Iran because the regime, amid mass street protests, appeared to be in a weakened state. But the regime has now ended up with a much stronger hand: It's proven its leverage over the global economy with the Strait of Hormuz, and under Trump's offer, Iran will get a huge infusion of cash to rebuild its ballistic missiles program and fund its proxy terror groups. At the same time, Trump has made the United States look like a rogue state—while spending billions for a deal he could have got without a war. Plus, Israelis are likely not happy, the Gulf states realize America can't protect them from Iran's drones, Cuba is readying to be next, Dems should make clear they are the anti-war party now, Trump is fighting his demons from his first term, and JD has a radical and un-American world view.Ben Rhodes joins Tim Miller for the holiday weekend pod.show notes Ben's podcast, "Pod Save the World" Ben's forthcoming book, "All We Say: The Battle for American Identity: A History in 15 Speeches" Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and LA in May: TheBulwark.com/Events Tim's playlist For 30% off your order, head to BloodFlow7.com/THEBULWARK and use code THEBULWARK. Post jobs for free at ziprecruiter.com/BULWARK

From Trump's sacrilegious use of Jesus, to his massively corrupt pardon scheme, and his desire to plaster his name on every federal building and institution, this country has never had such a bad president. The Dems need to plan now how they will do oversight and also keep his loyalists from helping him cheat in the midterms. Plus, Hegseth really doesn't know his Scripture, Trump is turning America's 250th birthday into a party for himself, and RFK has really got a thing about dead animals.Amanda Carpenter joins Tim Miller.show notes Protect Democracy's website ProPublica's reporting on Trump's effort to "take over" the midterms JVL on driving the stake through the heart of Trumpism Get $35 off your first box of wild-caught, sustainable seafood—delivered right to your door. Go to: https://www.wildalaskan.com/BULWARK