#739: Quarterly Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

China's teapot refiners are bleeding, Intel is going vertical on reshoring headlines, and AI benchmark scores are leaving the charts as Trump meets with Xi this week. Three vertical charts tell the story of US leverage across energy, chips, and capital markets, why the AGI buildout is driving industrial policy, and what it means for a labor market already showing cracks. No matter which scenario plays out, the path keeps leading back to the asset with no supply response. 🔗 https://bitcoinproducts.com In this episode: Why Chinese teapot refiners are getting squeezed by Hormuz How the Trump-Xi meeting was shaped by Iran war timing Intel going vertical on Apple reshoring and chip policy US portfolio inflows and the weaponization of capital markets AI benchmarks breaking the charts on scaling laws The split economy: record AI investment and broke consumers Mass layoffs at Cloudflare, Upwork, and Coinbase Why every road leads back to Bitcoin's fixed supply TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 - Mother's Day and monitoring the meta war 00:01:06 - Chinese teapot refiner margins collapse 00:02:11 - Three vertical charts framing the week 00:04:18 - SPR drains, input costs, and export asymmetry 00:05:15 - Trump-Xi meeting timing and leverage 00:07:26 - Hormuz closure was anticipated by US strategy 00:09:44 - Intel stock goes vertical on Apple reshoring 00:11:06 - TSMC risk and the Apple-Intel chip deal 00:12:57 - US portfolio inflows and the capital markets card 00:13:58 - Asymmetric leverage: energy, chips, and capital 00:17:13 - The choice between US decline or industrial reboot 00:19:31 - AI benchmarks break the charts on scaling laws 00:23:38 - Data center buildout and the physical economy 00:25:44 - K-shaped economy: record earnings, cracked consumer 00:29:13 - Bitcoin as the only asset with no supply response SUBSCRIBE › Newsletter (free): https://tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ › YouTube: https://youtube.com/@TFTC?sub_confirmation=1 FOLLOW US › X: https://x.com/tftc21 › Nostr: https://primal.net/tftc FOLLOW MARTY › X: https://x.com/MartyBent › Timestamp: https://www.ten31timestamp.com/ › John Arnold: https://x.com/JohnArnoldTen31 › Ten31: https://ten31.xyz TFTC #MartyBent #JohnArnold #Bitcoin #AI #Intel #China #Geopolitics #Reshoring #AGI

Marty sits down with Gerald Glickman to discuss the urgent need for Bitcoiners and policymakers to embrace cryptography-based decentralized identity standards that preserve privacy and individual sovereignty before the window closes on a surveillance-based digital ID future. Gerald on X: https://x.com/GeraldGlickman STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Eric Balchunas to discuss the Strategy investor call, the accelerating institutional takeover of Bitcoin through ETFs, and whether the cypherpunk base is cashing out just as Wall Street and the boomers arrive. Eric on X: https://x.com/EricBalchunas STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Lauren Rodriguez to discuss the persecution of her husband Keonne over Samurai Wallet, the criminalization of open-source code and financial privacy, and the urgent fight to free political prisoners in the war on crypto. Lauren on X: https://x.com/leamuirleyn FREE SAMOURAI: https://billandkeonne.org/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

The Trump administration is invoking the Defense Production Act to fast-track energy and grid infrastructure, the UAE just left OPEC after six decades, and the Treasury is opening dollar swap lines to fund a massive industrial push. Meanwhile US farmers are getting squeezed by fertilizer shortages, and Bitcoin is looking harder and harder to bet against as the monetary base expands and Washington starts waking up to what it can do. 🔗 https://bitcoinproducts.com In this episode: Defense Production Act invoked for grid, LNG, and critical infrastructure Why the US trade rep says cost efficiency is dead and national security is in UAE leaves OPEC after six decades and what that means for global supply Dollar swap lines as the new playbook for funding US industrial policy Fertilizer and helium shortages threatening American farmland Bitcoin's case amid a structurally expanding monetary base Energy and compute convergence playing out in the portfolio TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 - Back from Bitcoin 2026 and the Vegas recovery 00:01:38 - Defense Production Act enacted for energy and grid infrastructure 00:03:30 - Jamison Greer on paying the national security premium 00:05:30 - EU strategic partnership and border-adjusted price floors 00:06:12 - US grid decay and China's power generation boom 00:08:26 - How to pay for it all as debt to GDP crosses 100% 00:12:26 - UAE and dollar swap lines for funding industrial policy 00:15:16 - UAE leaves OPEC after six decades 00:20:30 - US energy export dominance and drill baby drill 00:21:28 - Fertilizer and helium shortages hitting American farmers 00:24:20 - Backwardation says oil disruption may be temporary 00:25:00 - Bitcoin's setup against a growing monetary base 00:26:17 - Portfolio update: energy meets compute 00:29:05 - Bitcoin as collateral for infrastructure credit SUBSCRIBE › Newsletter (free): https://tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ › YouTube: https://youtube.com/@TFTC?sub_confirmation=1 FOLLOW US › X: https://x.com/tftc21 › Nostr: https://primal.net/tftc FOLLOW MARTY › X: https://x.com/MartyBent › Timestamp: https://www.ten31timestamp.com/ › John Arnold: https://x.com/JohnArnoldTen31 › Ten31: https://ten31.xyz TFTC #MartyBent #JohnArnold #Bitcoin #EnergyPolicy #Macro

Marty sits down with Max from BitKey to discuss the evolution of Bitcoin self-custody, the launch of the new seedless hardware wallet, and the architectural challenges of making Bitcoin "everyday money." Max on X: https://x.com/max_guise STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Sadi Khan to discuss AVEN's launch of a Bitcoin-backed credit card offering 10-year fixed-rate credit lines as low as 7.99% APR, the company’s mission to grind down consumer cost of capital through asset-backed lending, and how technology, regulatory clarity, and hiring for intelligence are reshaping modern finance. Sadi on X: https://x.com/SadiSKhan Aven: https://www.aven.com/bitcoin STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Matthew Mežinskis to discuss Bitcoin's power law price dynamics, the accelerating "treadmill" of traditional markets, escalating geopolitical chaos including Russia's digital authoritarianism and America's shifting foreign policy, and the mathematical tension between Bitcoin's decelerating growth and Wall Street's attempt to subsume it into exponential fiat systems. Matthew on Twitter: https://x.com/1basemoney Porkopolis Economics: https://www.porkopolis.io/topmoney/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Bitcoin 2026 - Las Vegas http://bit.ly/3NA9xQh CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Jeremiah from Capital Flows to discuss how duration and credit risk price all assets, the implications of the dollar's reserve status on global trade, the current liquidity-driven equity melt-up, and emerging opportunities in decentralized finance and space technology. Capital Flows: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Bitcoin 2026 - Las Vegas http://bit.ly/3NA9xQh CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Term 2.0 is trending imperial as the US flexes financial and military muscle across the globe, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Panama Canal. While ceasefire headlines whipsaw market sentiment, Bitcoin is quietly decoupling from tech stocks and showing resilience against a backdrop of great power competition with China. 🔗 https://bitcoinproducts.com In this episode: Empire vs Republic: Are we entering the decline of the republic or the rise of the empire? Middle East ceasefire chaos and why oil prices aren't reflecting the full strategic picture US-China leverage game: Who blinks first on gas prices and supply chain disruption Rare earth industrial policy: The Sierra Verde acquisition and Indonesia partnership Bitcoin diverging from software stocks after months of tight correlation Strategy's STRK preferred stock and the risks building in DeFi derivatives Institutional pressure for quantum resistance by 2029 echoing the 2016 block size wars TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 - Empire Strikes Back: Term 2.0 going imperial 00:01:06 - Oil prices and ceasefire volatility 00:02:11 - Bitcoin decoupling from software stocks 00:04:18 - Market positioning and the taco trade 00:07:26 - US vs China leverage thresholds 00:11:06 - Mark Carney and Canada relations 00:12:57 - Rare earths and Sierra Verde deal 00:13:58 - De-dollarization narrative reality check 00:17:13 - Indonesia and Brazil geopolitical moves 00:19:31 - Panama Canal strategic importance 00:20:47 - Strategy STRK preferred stock mechanics 00:22:17 - DeFi hacks and derivative risks 00:25:15 - Quantum computing institutional panel 00:27:20 - NIST criticism and 2016 parallels SUBSCRIBE › Newsletter (free): https://tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ › YouTube: https://youtube.com/@TFTC?sub_confirmation=1 FOLLOW US › X: https://x.com/tftc21 › Nostr: https://primal.net/tftc FOLLOW MARTY › X: https://x.com/MartyBent › Timestamp: https://www.ten31timestamp.com/ › John Arnold: https://x.com/JohnArnoldTen31 › Ten31: https://ten31.xyz TFTC #MartyBent #JohnArnold #Bitcoin #Empire #Geopolitics