China’s Clean-Tech Glut Undercuts US Onshoring Hopes

As part of the Inflation Reduction Act, draft guidance for the US hydrogen production tax credit was introduced in December 2023, with the aim of promoting decarbonization in hard-to-abate sectors and enhancing energy security in the country. While some applauded the draft guidance for preventing greenwashing and driving real decarbonization, others view these requirements as excessive, and fear they could potentially discourage investment in green hydrogen production. On today’s show, BNEF’s head of hydrogen research, Martin Tengler, hosts a conversation on hydrogen production in the US, with panelists Kathleen Barron, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer at Constellation; Claire Behar, Chief Commercial Officer at Hy Stor Energy; Elena Scaltritti, Chief Commercial Officer at Topsoe; and Andy Vesey, President and Chief Executive Officer at Fortescue North America. They discuss whether the tax credit rules are helping or hurting green hydrogen production in the US, the lack of demand incentives compared with the EU, and the role that nuclear could play in the hydrogen sector’s future. Today’s episode was recorded live at the BNEF Summit New York. To learn more about BNEF’s Summits and to listen to more interviews, please visit https://about.bnef.com/summit/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, has the potential to help decarbonize aviation and is the most scalable technology for this hard-to-abate sector in the near term. With offtake agreements for SAF surging over the past two years, the nascent industry has been showing promise. However, hurdles remain due to scarcity of supply, resource competition from renewable diesel, and a lack of technological diversification. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Daisy Robinson and Rose Oates, two members of BloombergNEF’s renewable fuels team. Together they discuss the regional policies that are driving the uptake of cleaner jet fuels, the different feedstocks used to produce SAF, and the greenium that SAF faces when compared with traditional fuels. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: 2024 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook: Getting Airborne - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33497/view  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China is churning out clean energy technology at a breakneck pace, driving down prices on everything from solar panels to lithium ion batteries. With supply far exceeding demand, the timing couldn’t be worse for the many countries that are looking to onshore clean-tech equipment manufacturing. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Trade and Supply Chains, Antoine Vagneur-Jones. They discuss the impetus behind the Chinese government’s drive to dominate the clean-tech export sector, the sheer scale of the global manufacturing overcapacity and whether it’s already sufficient to meet net-zero goals, and the US reaction to Chinese companies potentially offshoring production to countries like Mexico. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: China’s Clean-Tech Overcapacity Threatens Onshoring Dreams - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33543 Mexico Won’t Be China’s EV Export Hub to US Anytime Soon - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33761See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Voluntary carbon markets are coming off a tumultuous year, with constant public scrutiny and high-profile scandals undermining investor confidence. Despite the turmoil, the market has grown to a record size, as corporations look to carbon offsets to reach their net zero goals. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Layla Khanfar, BNEF corporate sustainability and carbon offsets analyst, alongside Kyle Harrison, BNEF’s head of sustainability research for the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. They discuss BNEF’s long-term carbon-market scenarios, the different types of offsets that are available for purchase, and how private companies are stepping in to help fill the regulatory void. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Long-Term Carbon Offsets Outlook 2024 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33315/viewSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Seaborne freight is the lifeblood of the global economy. It’s also a heavy polluter. Now that shipping companies, retailers and governments are all looking to decarbonize the supply chain, what is the outlook for clean shipping fuels? In a broad field of competing options including ammonia, methane and LNG, which is the most viable? On today’s show, Dana is joined by Mohith Velamala, a senior associate on BloombergNEF’s oil team. Together they discuss the maritime sector’s existing decarbonization targets and whether these can realistically be met, the stringent EU policies that are having a global impact, and the long-term outlook for fleet growth and its potential carbon footprint. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: 2024 Marine Fuel Outlook - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33189  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the world races to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, countries are ramping up their efforts across the supply chain, from mining raw materials to fostering consumer demand. For the fourth year, BloombergNEF has ranked the potential of 30 markets to build a secure, reliable and sustainable lithium-ion battery supply chain, with Canada leapfrogging China to clinch the top spot this time around.  On today’s show, Dana is joined by the head of BNEF’s metals and mining team, Kwasi Ampofo, and metals and mining analyst Ellie Gomes-Callus. Together they discuss the ranking, including which countries are performing best across the five categories assessed, and also unpack the recent volatility in the lithium market and the impact that Indonesian policy has had on nickel prices. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Global Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Ranking - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33323 Harnessing Africa’s Critical Minerals Potential - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33517See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The aviation industry’s pathway to net zero is far from certain. Operational improvements and technologies such as sustainable aviation fuel and zero-emission aircraft could offer substantial emissions reductions, but questions remain around timing, scalability and customers’ willingness to pay. So what strategies can airlines apply to reduce their carbon footprint and meet their net-zero commitments? On today’s show, Jade Patterson, a BloombergNEF senior associate in sustainable fuels, interviews United Airlines’ Chief Sustainability Officer, Lauren Riley. Together they discuss United’s strategy for achieving its climate goals, the governmental policies that could encourage carriers to adopt greener practices, and the venture fund that United has founded to help clean up aviation writ large. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to BNEF Forums and Summits: Link to BNEF's Regional Forums page - https://bbgevent.app/bloombergnef-forum-2024/#/ Link to BNEF's Flagship Summits page - https://about.bnef.com/summit/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With plastic production set to double by 2050, immediate action is needed to address plastic waste pollution and the inefficiencies of existing recycling systems. Chemical recycling could help process lower-grade feedstocks, significantly upping the amount of plastic that can be given a second life, but is the sector ready to do so? On today’s show, Dana is joined by Kirti Vasta, a senior associate from BloombergNEF’s sustainable materials team. Together they discuss the different forms chemical recycling can take, what’s driving investment in the space, and the unexpected places that recycled plastics can go. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Chemical Recycling of Plastics (Part 1): Market Update -  https://www.bnef.com/insights/32709 Chemical Recycling of Plastics (Part 2): Tech and Costs -  https://www.bnef.com/insights/32963See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As electric vehicle sales skyrocket, so too will the need for EV batteries and the metals that make them work. That’s where recycling comes in. By 2035, some 3.7 million metric tons of batteries could be nearing the end of their lives. Pull them apart to repurpose their innards, and you could have 10-18% of the key materials needed for battery manufacturing. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF energy storage analyst Andy Leach. Together they discuss why production scrap from the manufacturing process is the most important feedstock for near-term recycling, how EV ownership rates across different regions will impact the longer-term availability of key metals, and the policies and incentives that are designed to encourage and enforce battery recycling. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal, on bnef.com or on the BNEF mobile app. Links to research notes from this episode: Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Market Outlook 2024 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33401See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Chinese government is rolling out one of the world’s most ambitious clean energy plans, targeting 1,200 gigawatts of installed renewable capacity by 2030. Part of their strategy involves building megabases, huge clean-energy developments that will generate more than one-third of the targeted total. Yet bringing a multi-gigawatt megabase to fruition, and doing it on such a tight time scale, is no minor feat. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF analysts Tianyi Zhao and Xiangyu Chen. Together they discuss the policies that are driving megabase rollout, how the enormous demand for wind and solar equipment is impacting prices, and the new ultra-high voltage grids that will carry the power generated from remote megabases to major cities. Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal, on bnef.com or on the BNEF mobile app. Links to research notes from this episode: China’s Unprecedented 455GW Energy Megabase Plan - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33031See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.