A Decade of Warning Signs: How America's Threats Have Changed

Russia's war against Ukraine is being fought on the battlefield, but another confrontation is unfolding across Europe. From drone incursions and sabotage operations to cyberattacks and threats against critical infrastructure, Moscow's expanding gray zone campaign is raising urgent questions about NATO's ability to respond. In this episode of State Secrets, host Suzanne Kelly is joined by Dr. Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland's National Security Bureau and former senior national security advisor to the Polish president, and Dave Pitts, former senior CIA executive and co-founder of The Cipher Brief's Gray Zone Group. Together, they examine how Russia is using hybrid warfare to test NATO's defenses, spread fear and uncertainty, and undermine European support for Ukraine. They also explore the growing risks posed by drone technology, the potential use of chemical and radiological weapons, and why traditional deterrence strategies may no longer be enough. As Russia's shadow war expands beyond Ukraine, what will it take for Europe and the United States to effectively deter Moscow before these threats escalate further?

A 10th ANNIVERSARY SPECIAL EDITION of the State Secrets Podcast with Suzanne Kelly and Brad Christian as they share the behind-the-scenes stories from the past decade as The Cipher Brief prepares to host the Cipher Brief Threat Conference.  From a world where terrorism was front and center and AI was still a curiosity, to today's world, where China remains the pacing threat, and is buoyed by rapidly emerging technology and a new alignment with Russia, Iran and North Korea.

In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets podcast, host Suzanne Kelly sits down with retired U.S. Army General Bryan Fenton, former commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, for a wide-ranging conversation about the changing character of war — and what the United States will need to stay ahead on the battlefield of the future. After 38 years in uniform and a career spent across the special operations community, Fenton brings a unique perspective on how warfare is evolving. He explains what he sees more clearly now from outside government, including the growing role of America's private sector in developing technologies and capabilities that could prove critical to national security. Drawing lessons from the war in Ukraine, Fenton describes a future battlefield where exquisite, billion-dollar military systems operate alongside enormous numbers of cheaper, attritable systems. From autonomous drones in the air to uncrewed vehicles on land, on the surface of the ocean and underwater, he explains why scale, autonomy and the ability to integrate these technologies could fundamentally reshape how militaries fight. Kelly and Fenton also explore what a special operations force built for this new era might look like, how artificial intelligence, cyber and space are changing the equation, and whether the long-held special operations principle that "humans are more important than hardware" can survive in an increasingly autonomous world. The conversation expands beyond the battlefield to China's growing economic, diplomatic and military power, competition in the gray zone, foreign information operations and the role special operations can play below the threshold of conventional conflict. Fenton also makes the case that America's economic strength, private capital, manufacturing base and culture of innovation are inseparable from its national security. At the center of it all is deterrence. For Fenton, the ultimate measure of military strength isn't whether America can fight the next great power war — it's whether the United States and its allies can remain capable enough that an adversary decides not to start one in the first place. Today's Sponsor is Two Six Technologies: https://twosixtech.com/products/sentr

In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets podcast, host Suzanne Kelly sits down with award-winning historian and bestselling author Simon Sebag Montefiore to discuss his new book, The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East — a sweeping history of roughly 125 years that traces how the region became what it is today. Drawing on a lifetime of research, writing and travel throughout the Middle East, Montefiore explains why he wanted to write a book that brought the region's complicated history together in one story — from the final years of the Ottoman Empire and the rise of modern Saudi Arabia to the creation of Israel, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, America's growing role in the region and the power struggles shaping the Middle East today. Kelly and Montefiore explore some of the central arguments in The Cauldron, including why he believes the familiar story that Western powers simply drew arbitrary borders after World War I and created the modern Middle East is incomplete. Instead, he puts greater emphasis on the agency of the region's own leaders, peoples and empires and tells much of that history through the larger-than-life personalities who shaped it. The conversation moves from Ibn Saud, Atatürk, Reza Shah and David Ben-Gurion to Gamal Abdel Nasser and Ayatollah Khomeini, while also examining the historical forces behind Iran's role in the region, Russia's centuries-old interests in the Middle East and the challenges outside powers have repeatedly faced when trying to shape events there. At its core, The Cauldron is an effort to answer a deceptively simple question: How did we get here? Montefiore explains why understanding that history may not allow us to predict what happens next — but can give us critical context for understanding the people, decisions and forces driving the Middle East today.

America's adversaries are fighting a war designed to shape what people see, believe, share—and ultimately do. Russia, China and Iran are investing billions of dollars in influence operations intended to divide Americans, weaken alliances and alter real-world decisions, often without firing a shot. Artificial intelligence is now giving those campaigns unprecedented speed, scale and precision. In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets Podcast, Suzanne Kelly speaks with Shawn Chenoweth, the National Security Council's Director for Cognitive Advantage, about the escalating war for perception. Chenoweth explains how foreign powers exploit legitimate grievances, amplify American voices and manipulate social media networks to influence public behavior—sometimes without the people involved realizing they are being used. They also examine why America abandoned much of its influence infrastructure after the Cold War, how adversaries may be targeting opposition to U.S. data centers and AI development, and why determining who controls the information environment could become one of the defining national security contests of our time. As Chenoweth warns, America is taking "face shots every day" in this arena—and it is time to start fighting back.

Artificial intelligence, drones and commercial satellites are transforming the way intelligence is collected, analyzed and used — but as technology delivers answers faster than ever, how do intelligence professionals make sure those answers are actually right? In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets Podcast, Suzanne Kelly sits down with retired Vice Admiral Trey Whitworth, former Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and former Director for Intelligence on the Joint Staff, to discuss how emerging technology is changing intelligence and the character of modern warfare. Whitworth explains his concept of "drones, codes and spacecraft," why AI could fundamentally change the intelligence cycle, and the danger of what he calls a "veneer of understanding" — having information at our fingertips without the expertise or rigor needed to truly understand it. The conversation also explores source validation in the age of AI, the changing nature of deterrence, NGA's role in warning and targeting, the growing importance of commercial satellite imagery, and Whitworth's move from government into the private sector. The Cipher Brief brings together experienced intelligence, military, diplomatic and private-sector leaders to help subscribers understand what is happening behind the headlines - and what national security professionals are watching next. Learn more at: www.thecipherbrief.com Become a Subscriber+ member for exclusive access to The Cipher Brief's Daily Open Source Report, described by some as the best, unclassified national security report they've ever read. Sign up today at: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/subscr Learn more about how to attend the 2026 Cipher Brief Threat Conference at: www.tcbconference.com Today's sponsor: Two Six Technologies https://twosixtech.com/

Iranian-American businessman Emad Shargi spent more than five years detained in Iran, enduring solitary confinement, brutal interrogations, a mock execution and a 10-year prison sentence after being accused of cooperating with the United States. Now, Shargi joins The Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly to tell the extraordinary story of his arrest, imprisonment, attempted escape from Iran and eventual release — and to offer a stark warning about how the Iranian regime operates. Shargi describes the night IRGC intelligence agents raided his family's home in Tehran, his detention inside the notorious Evin Prison and the pressure he faced to falsely confess to being a CIA spy. He also recounts an attempted escape from Iran after being sentenced to a decade in prison — an effort that ended when he was captured near the Iraqi Kurdistan border and returned to IRGC custody. But this conversation goes beyond his years in prison. Drawing on his firsthand experience with the Iranian security apparatus, Shargi explains why he believes Washington must fundamentally rethink how it deals with Tehran, the role economic pressure can play in weakening the regime and why he believes the Iranian people ultimately have the will to demand change. "You cannot negotiate with a cult of death," Shargi tells The Cipher Brief.

Former CIA Director and retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus joins The Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly for a wide-ranging conversation about the wars reshaping the global security landscape — and why the United States needs to fundamentally rethink how it prepares for the conflicts of the future. From the war with Iran and Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine to China's military calculations over Taiwan, Petraeus explains how drones, autonomous weapons and rapidly changing battlefield technology are transforming warfare faster than many military institutions can adapt. On Iran, Petraeus examines whether there is a realistic path to ending the conflict, why maintaining economic and maritime pressure on Tehran matters, and how Iran's missiles and drones have changed the threat to U.S. forces, regional partners and some of the world's most critical energy infrastructure. He also warns against believing the United States can simply disengage from the region. "Trying to leave the Middle East for the United States is like Michael Corleone trying to leave the mafia," Petraeus says. "You just keep getting sucked back in." The conversation then turns to Ukraine, which Petraeus describes as a "laboratory for the future of war." He explains how drones have transformed the battlefield, why traditional weapons such as artillery and tanks face new vulnerabilities, and how autonomous systems could soon usher in another dramatic shift.

Artificial intelligence is transforming cyber warfare - and former NSA Director and U.S. Cyber Command Commander Gen. Paul Nakasone says the speed of that transformation demands a new approach to America's defense. In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets podcast, Suzanne Kelly sits down with Gen. Nakasone to discuss how AI is reshaping offensive and defensive cyber operations - and why increasingly autonomous systems could fundamentally change the role humans play in cyber conflict. They examine China's penetration of U.S. telecommunications and critical infrastructure, cyber threats from Iran, Russia and North Korea, the growing ransomware threat, the race to prepare for quantum computing, and what Ukraine is teaching the world about autonomous warfare.  Gen. Nakasone also explains why America's intelligence capabilities remain a critical competitive advantage, why defending critical infrastructure requires deeper partnerships between government and the private sector, and what national security leaders should be watching now.

Recorded on location in Kyiv, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery joins Suzanne Kelly for a timely State Secrets conversation on how Ukraine is reshaping the future of warfare. Editor's Note: We caught up with Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery in Kyiv just as President Zelensky announced the firing of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, prompting a wave of protests. Since this interview was recorded, additional developments - including changes in Ukraine's military leadership - have overtaken parts of that discussion. The strategic insights on Ukraine's battlefield innovation, however, remain as relevant as ever. From Ukraine's increasingly effective long-range drone campaign against Russia's military infrastructure to the growing strain on Kyiv's air defenses, Montgomery explains why this war is becoming the world's most important laboratory for military innovation. He also shares firsthand observations from his latest trip to Ukraine - including conversations with commanders on the front lines - and discusses what the U.S., NATO, and Taiwan should be learning before the next major conflict.