Rick Rule: Why Oil Companies Are Cannibalizing Themselves

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Brent Johnson back to the show. Brent is the CEO of Puerto Rico-based Santiago Capital and creator of the famous "dollar milkshake theory." He has more than 13,000 subscribers on the Santiago Capital Substack.   Brent kicks things off by expressing his optimism for the U.S. and believes that, despite the supply-chain issues the country is facing, it will make the changes needed to come out of the crisis. That's not to say that there won't be pain along the way, but Brent says it will be better than most people expect. Additionally, he says that criticisms of the U.S. and the dollar are valid, but relative to other countries, they're in a much better position than their peers. And he tells listeners that you can still buy gold without being bearish on the dollar. (0:00)   Next, Brent says that there's no need to be worried about gold overtaking the dollar as a reserve asset in central banks. A key contributor to that has been gold going up while Treasurys have gone down. But Brent's research shows that on a global scale, government bonds have been falling across the board. (The exception is China, due to companies not wanting to buy Chinese stocks or real estate and getting tax breaks from buying Chinese bonds). Brent then explains how the dollar will become broken the stronger it becomes, which would create more pressure on countries that have debt in dollars and could lead to a currency crisis and a great credit reset. And he shows how the U.S. could weaponize the dollar against companies that are indebted to it. (15:08)   Finally, Brent criticizes the mentality that it doesn't matter which fiat currency you're holding, because they're all going to crash. He says that folks who work, own businesses, or have exposure to the geopolitical landscape should care about fiat levels. A sharp rise in one currency compared with another has been a key component in every global financial crisis over the past 50 years. And Brent states that the order of the currency declines matters. Folks who retreat from the market out of fear could be missing out on all the opportunities that happen before a major crash occurs. (34:04)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Rick Rule back to the show. Rick is the president and CEO of Rule Investment Media, which boasts more than 28,000 subscribers on Substack. With nearly 50 years of experience managing investments, primarily in the natural resources sector, Rick is an authority in the field.   Rick kicks things off by providing his long-term view on oil and gas as commodities, as well as his view on oil and gas stocks. He says that while the price of oil could temporarily decline if the conflict in the Middle East reaches a permanent resolution, current prices could be a glimpse of what's in store within the next four years. And according to Rick, many oil and gas companies are "cannibalizing" themselves by directing money away from reinvesting in their businesses and into dividends and share buybacks, which will impact production in the long term. (0:00)   Next, Rick shares his disdain for how government spending and interference have impacted both taxpayers and investors. He personally wrote an e-mail to President Donald Trump to inform him about one of the largest copper deposits in the world just sitting around. It sits on U.S. soil, but we have done nothing to begin production due to regulations. Rick then shares advice for listeners who want to invest during the oil shortage. (22:00)   Finally, Rick explains why "stingy" dividends are beneficial to investors. He goes further and reveals why capital-intensive companies should reinvest in their projects and illustrates why one Brazilian company is set up to disappoint investors who bought shares due to absurdly high dividends. Rick then states that institutional investors have been wrong about oil and gas. Many activists have predicted that fossil fuels will no longer be desired and will soon die out. On the contrary, with the growing need for energy, demand will continue to endure. (37:20)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Matt Franz back to the show. Matt is the founder of Eagle Point Capital, an advisory firm focused on long-term investing. Eagle Point Capital has more than 5,000 subscribers on Substack.   Matt kicks things off by sharing the kinds of companies that he likes to search for. He says that these are "simple, predictable, and profitable" businesses that he can look at over a period of five-plus years and know where they're heading. But even though Matt's firm likes to have a long holding period for its stock picks, the team is constantly assessing and investigating what's occurring with the companies to ensure that they're still worthwhile buys. Matt then begins discussing a vertical market software ("VMS") company he likes. Despite the stock starting to decline following the "SaaSpocalypse" and more recent concerns of AI harming the business, Matt says there's no reason to be afraid. (0:00)   Next, Matt explains why decentralization is one of the biggest strengths for the company. It has about 1,500 business units that operate independently. Management looks at what works and what doesn't and shares the data throughout the rest of the business. But the individual units are still free to evaluate the practices and decide if they're beneficial for that particular unit and can implement them as needed. This allows the company as a whole to constantly innovate and improve itself. Matt then discusses the process this company goes through to make acquisitions. It's able to find bargain deals on smaller, overlooked businesses that can have a dominant role in their respective fields. And with the success that it has had with this strategy, it's leaning more into this method. (20:33)   Finally, Matt presents another company he's fond of. Its focus is mainly on coal royalties, though it also owns soda-ash assets as well. It had suffered from years of debt after investing in multiple businesses before making coal its primary business. Today, it's nearly debt-free, and while coal prices are low today, with the many mines that it owns, if the prices start soaring, the value of those mines (and the company) will also go up. And Matt leaves listeners with advice on deciding to stay long in positions in the face of potential downturns. (35:58)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Craig Tindale to the show. Craig is a private investor with a keen perspective on economic and geopolitical analysis. He has more than 5,000 subscribers on Substack.   Craig kicks things off by discussing "hard bifurcation," a term he uses to refer to the U.S. importing its products instead of manufacturing them, creating dependencies on other countries. For instance, China has control over the precious metals the U.S. needs for defense. Craig looks at history to show why nations didn't trade crucial resources with rival nations... and how nations that did faced shortages during war. And he addresses how China could restrict our access to rare earth metals to slow down U.S. AI chip development. (0:00)   Next, Craig notes several gases the U.S. produces that serve as counters to China's choke points. The only thing that could impact them would be a breakdown in the supply chain. Craig says that the U.S. would need at least five years to build the overall industrial factories and infrastructure needed to match what China has. And while not economically viable, if a rare earth shortage did hit the U.S., we could recycle e-waste to produce the materials we need. Craig discusses the byproducts that come from mining production and how they impact other industries. (19:14)   Finally, Craig expresses his frustration at how policy and regulation have created more risk factors for shortages. He says that companies move their efforts to other countries where such restrictions are looser or nonexistent. And while most folks won't notice those changes, they'd feel the knock-on effects if anything were to impact operations wherever that manufacturing was happening. And Craig warns folks to become more resilient and self-sufficient to protect themselves against uncertainty. (35:49)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Marko Papic back to the show. Marko is the chief strategist and head of GeoMacro at BCA Research, a global investment research firm.   Marko kicks things off by discussing the "second derivative of AI capex," which signals the beginning of the end of the AI boom. Due to tension in the Middle East potentially starting to ease up, the market is nearing the peak of the "Wall of Worry," and as a result, investors could lose a component that helps fuel the current rally. Additionally, Marko says that AI is inflationary. It takes labor, copper, and electricity to construct and run a data center, and with oil prices not likely to return to the levels they were at before the conflict at the Strait of Hormuz, that will just compound the inflation. Marko details what you can expect from the "endgame" of the Hormuz blockade. (0:00)   Next, Marko delves into oil prices and demand. He says that the conflict is starting to give several impressions to other countries after this passes. The first is that the U.S. creates demand when it has a desire to obtain resources and seeks them out. Countries will then start hoarding them as a means of securing them. The second impression the conflict shows is that our allies might not be able to rely on us in a prolonged conflict. Marko says that the raid in Venezuela earlier this year and the Strait of Hormuz situation were both supposed to be short-term incidents. The U.S. did not intend for the blockade to last as long as it has. So in the event of a drawn-out conflict, our allies might have second thoughts about asking for aid. However, even if we are shut out, Marko says America is integrated into the global infrastructure. (18:24)   Finally, Marko sums up the three main reasons why an "inflationary brew" is developing for data centers. The first is that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh might not be as dovish as hoped prior to entering the role. And it doesn't seem like President Donald Trump will do much to deter him from raising interest rates. That will make building data centers more expensive. The second is that the major AI IPOs are creating a massive supply with little liquidity. With many individual investors primarily having exposure to the S&P 500 Index, they'll be gaining exposure with their 401(k)s but won't be actively buying or selling them, resulting in stagnancy. And lastly, AI capex is slowing down since it's not feasible to build as many data centers as these companies desire. (36:06)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Peter Zeihan to the show. Peter specializes in geopolitics and brings a critical perspective on how foreign affairs impact the U.S. market.   Peter kicks things off by discussing why the market hasn't reacted or improved in response to the peace talks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. He says the reason is threefold. First, the White House acted with very little planning, only using Israeli intel and data. What was supposed to last no more than 96 hours was drawn out into a monthslong conflict. Second, Peter says that President Donald Trump fired numerous ambassadors and policy experts with the intention of not refilling those seats. This has made negotiating more difficult. And third, turning the oilfields back on will take months at best. Peter then says that due to comments made by the Trump administration, Europeans have a growing mistrust of America and are seeing it as a potential enemy. (0:00)   Next, Peter delves into Ukraine and its usage of drones in the war. Drones have and are continuing to become so advanced that Peter considers them part of what he calls the "second revolution of military technology." They're now capable of making decisions on what to target once they arrive at a destination area and cannot be jammed once they've made a decision. And the first-generation ground drones in development could be a game changer for Ukraine. Following this, Peter gives an update on a video he made titled "Don't Be Fooled. China Is Collapsing." He says the Chinese population numbers are not as high as stated, partially due to millions of citizens in the census having possibly been fabricated. Unlike the U.S. and other Western countries, China only has several "touchpoints" that determine that a citizen exists, and these have had falsified numbers in the past. While the official numbers might provide a false sense of security, the population decline will have a massive impact on the country. (17:20)   Finally, Peter shares his thoughts on a major transition period. He says that this will be a time of short-term pain, but in the long run, the countries that could weather the storm and emerge first would be the big winners in the new era. The United States was one potential winner, but with hostile work environments with other countries (in addition to globalization universally deteriorating) and an aging power grid, it's facing strong headwinds. Peter says the country will need to double its efforts in manufacturing at home if it wants to have a chance of surviving without other countries, especially if trade slows down or is even severed. (35:16)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Andy Schectman to the show. Andy is the founder and CEO of Miles Franklin Precious Metals, a company dedicated to transparency, ethics, and long-term wealth preservation.   Andy kicks things off by explaining why gold prices breaking down isn't as bad as many people believe. He says that while the paper price of gold is going down, the physical asset has been going strong. In fact, since the start of President Donald Trump's second term, billions of physical gold bars in contracts have been delivered to CME Group's Commodity Exchange ("COMEX"). Silver also had strong deliveries to COMEX, with December 2025 seeing a record 65 million ounces in contracts delivered. Andy also says that one reason why gold exchange-traded funds ("ETFs") have experienced increased outflows is because large firms are redeeming their shares in exchange for gold to fulfill delivery contracts. And some of these contracts are for foreign countries that have lost trust in the central banks. (0:00)   Next, Andy shares his thoughts on bitcoin (BTC) and gold. Contrary to the stances supporters of either asset have, he doesn't believe investors need to be in only one of them and opposed to the other. He believes it's best if you invest in both. Andy personally invested in 1 BTC early on so he could have some exposure to the development of bitcoin. Andy then talks about the country's debt problem. With the U.S. in debt by more than $39 trillion, our country needs a way to pay it off. Andy says we have no way of selling products to other countries in the hopes of being paid in dollars, and other countries have established their own methods of trade without relying on the U.S. dollar. And with a trifecta of worse education rates, a lack of at-home manufacturing, and AI replacing certain jobs, the future outlook is grim. (19:14)   Finally, Andy says that Trump does have a plan to address this problem. The key is to bring manufacturing back home and sell that to the world. The U.S. cannot afford to be reliant on other countries. Also, the U.S. needs to aggressively buy gold. That would go straight into the Treasurys and help pay off our debt. While in the short-to-mid term this will be painful for Americans as certain services might need to be withheld, in the long term, Andy says it would be worth it. He ends the interview by warning investors to not save their money in dollars due to its dwindling value but to put their money into hard assets instead. (39:46)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Stansberry Research's Director of Research Matt Weinschenk back to the show in a special crossover episode with Top Stocks. In this collaborative episode, the two discuss diesel, and Matt shakes things up by asking Dan most of the questions.   Matt and Dan kick things off by discussing the current state of diesel. The reserve diesel supply is now low enough that it's being measured in days instead of the usual months. The most recent report says that America only has 20 days' worth in reserve. This doesn't bode well for AI data centers since they cannot afford to have long downtimes, and at least 90% of their backup generators run on diesel. Another issue is that the fuel has a limited shelf life. If it's being stored, it can only last for so long, and if it's sitting in a generator, it has to be used or switched out so the generator isn't filled with gunk. And Dan says that even if global issues suddenly got better, diesel's current predicament wouldn't be resolved for a while. (0:00)   Next, the two explain how difficult it is to get a permit to build a new diesel refinery in the U.S., along with the pressure of building one near residential areas. Diesel costs around $100 per barrel and between $5.45 and $5.50 per gallon on average. Folks will adopt a "not in my backyard" mentality even if the price of diesel is higher. And even if the stakes are high enough, Matt says that no one is going to step up and compete with established oil and gas companies to build a new refinery. (10:46)   Finally, Matt and Dan detail all the industries and segments that rely on diesel. And with data centers having high demand, in the event of a power outage, they'll pay to have top priority for the available supply. But despite the worry around the potential diesel shortages, there are ways that you can profit from it. Dan shares the names of several companies that he believes will continue to perform well and return value to shareholders. These are companies that he has recommended to his subscribers in the past during "buy the dip" scenarios, and he still recommends them. And Dan teases a new group of "Magnificent Seven" stocks that will serve the "hard asset" needs of AI. (20:16)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Dave Collum back to the show. He's the Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry at Cornell University. He's outspoken about many topics and issues ranging from finance to politics and everything in between. And he brings this same no-holds-barred attitude to today's podcast.   Dave kicks things off by discussing the "everything bubble," or as he prefers to call it, the "complacency bubble." According to him, previous market bubbles had logic behind their euphoria, but he says the current one does not follow logic because the companies' earnings are not as good as they appear. He then says that based on a report he received, passive investing could be reversing. The problem with this is that folks could build a passive portfolio and sell individual stocks if a company gave reason for fear. With index funds, investors are holding all the stocks and will sell the stocks they might like while trying to remove a stock they dislike. And Dave warns that the wave of trillion-dollar IPOs could be the breaking point due to passive investors not being able to support them. (0:00)   Next, Dave explains how the market is overvalued and says that while many folks won't mind a correction, they should be concerned. As an example, he says that the average Boomer-generation investor has $300,000 in their retirement savings account. And if the market collapses, that will halve their income flow. Dave shifts the focus to interest rates. Folks aren't quite certain what to make of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and whether he'll raise or lower rates. Dave believes that he could be a "Paul Volcker 2.0" who makes America "take its medicine" and start things over despite the short-term pain. But regardless of how things are handled, if the market bubble bursts, it will cause a "multidecade secular bear market." (21:57)   Finally, Dave shares what kinds of stocks he owns. He says that he bought gold after selling off platinum. While he initially had a rocky period with the precious metal, it has served him well over the past few years. Energy has also been doing decently in recent times. Dave also says that he has given up on sentiment indicators because he was dissatisfied with them. But he says that engaging in reading outside of your comfort zone and the markets is a great way to get insight into multiple areas and learn about developments in the world. (47:21)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Dave Lashmet back to the show. Dave is the editor of Stansberry Venture Technology, an advisory that takes a "venture capitalist" look at the market. Dave scours the market looking for little-known small-cap companies that are potentially producing the next wonder drug or technology.   Dave kicks things off by discussing the SpaceX IPO. He calls the company a "Tower of Babel," saying the best use case for Starlink is to replace cell phone towers. However, Starlink's satellites can only provide service for up to 1,000 people. In rural areas, this is fine, but larger cities and the surrounding areas would have higher demand. Additionally, Dave says that there's a 10-year gap between Earth-based and space-based communications. Unlike cell phone towers, satellites have to go through additional processes to ensure that they will function properly while they're in orbit. But in the midst of the IPO, Dave says that Alphabet subsidiary Google will be a major winner. (0:00)   Next, Dave shares how the SpaceX IPO will result in many folks investing in 401(k)s to be holding shares of the company unintentionally and how that happens. And they'll have an unreasonable percentage of their portfolio owning a stock that isn't gushing cash. Dave then talks about how cameras will be the future of space. Sony's research and development division created a "four-color camera" that operates on the red, green, blue, and shortwave infrared spectrums. Infrared doesn't currently work in any functional capacity for everyday users, but for the companies that build telescopes, the next breakthrough was evident. And this technology can help with "seeing" better than other cameras. (19:52)   Finally, Dave breaks down "near space," the region of the atmosphere between the stratosphere and space. It's tricky to station anything there due to the high amount of air resistance and insufficient amount of air that could support the lift needed for wings, so there's little interest in going there. But one company Dave is looking at is developing the "basking shark" capable of enduring in near space. And if the U.S. government wants its "golden dome," it needs to go to this company. And Dave marvels at how space is able to improve many things on Earth that wouldn't be possible otherwise. (39:45)