First Fed Hike Since 2023

The Fed hikes for the first time in over 3 years, with the Dow shedding over 600 points while the 10-year Treasury yield holds stubbornly around the 5% mark. The rate hike provokes U.S. President Donald Trump, who once again demands looser monetary policy, calling the FOMC “hostile”. Across the pond the Bank of England looks poised to deliver a hold as long-term borrowing costs hover near their highest in nearly 30 years. And the EU's offer for Canada to become its first-ever associate member also draws the ire of President Trump, who threatens further trade restrictions on the bloc if those plans progress.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve decision today, as America’s central bank is all-but certain to have its first hike in over 3 years with the expected move will likely strain ties with U.S. President Donald Trump. Meta’s Mark Zuckaberg is weighing in on the AI safety debate, favoring independent evaluation rather than a slowdown in development, but Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar come down on opposite sides of the conversation. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Chip names sell off on both sides of the pond amid investor pullback after warnings from AI giants. Software stocks, however, catch a bid, putting the two baskets at a huge divergence. Trump intervenes, calling warnings over the technology a “sick” “hoax,” and telling AI leaders not to kill the “golden goose”, going as far as calling up Jensen Huang during a podcast recording. The 10-year Treasury yield hits its highest ever level in almost 20 years, with traders eyeing a near 95% chance of a Fed hike as the FOMC starts its two-day meeting today.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

AI safety fears have dominated the sphere as Anthropic chief Dario Amodei's proposals to rein in development manage to unite bitter rivals Elon Musk and Sam Altman in support. However, U.S. president Donald Trump disagrees. Trump’s relationship with Fed Chair Warsh is set for a new test as investors eye a more-than 85% chance the central bank raises rates at its meeting this week while the President says the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world. Oil prices notch fresh gains amid new strikes on Saudi Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz, which force Saudi to temporarily shut its East-West oil pipeline.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The latest U.S. Treasury buyback disappoints which piles on the pressure to sell global bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield is inching towards 5 per cent. In oil news, WTI tops $100 for the first time since May as continued Iranian attacks on Gulf refineries and vessels attempting to pass out of the Strait of Hormuz drive raise concerns over an extended disruption to supply. The ECB bumps rates by a quarter point as energy price concerns steer the inflation outlook upwards.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump talks up America's "tremendous" success as he promises a 'dividend' to US adult citizens if the Republicans retain control of Congress - in a pledge totalling more than a trillion dollars. The 10-year US bond yield jumps to its highest level in three years as the Treasury Department announces plans to buy back up to 6 billion dollars in longer-term debt - triple the normal level. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti telling CNBC he sees investor complacency as geopolitical and economic risks mount. Apple unveils its long-awaited foldable phone, with the 'iPhone Duo' coming in just shy of $2,000 in a major shakeup of its lineup under new CEO John Ternus. The ECB looks poised to raise rates at today's meeting, with traders pricing in a near 100 percent chance of a 25 basis point hike.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Brent nears $100 a barrel as the conflict in the Gulf continues to flare. The IRGC says it attacked 2 American vessels and 8 oil tankers as retaliation for the U.S. targeting Iranian crude supplies earlier this week. Inflation fears rise as a result of surging energy prices, as do expectations of rate hikes from the ECB and Federal Reserve later this week. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey says the global economy is facing several upside inflationary risks. Wall Street closed Tuesday’s session in the red as AI models at several software firms come under scrutiny.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Mistral AI raises €3bn at a valuation of more than €21bn. The fund-raising round is among Europe’s largest ever. CEO Arthur Mensch tells CNBC that the move will accelerate future growth. Oil prices are at a six-week high with Brent crude nearing the $100-mark. Market sentiment reacts with the chances of central bank tightening looming. Chinese exports in August grow by 25 per cent while Canada’s counter-tariffs against the U.S. take hold.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Germany’s AfD party wins a resounding election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt with almost 45 per cent of the vote. Ulrich Siegmund, the candidate vying to be the state premier pledges the party will not compromise if it comes to power. Investors attempt to look beyond President Trump’s threat to cut off top trading partners if the Federal Reserve fails to cut interest rates. Markets have priced in a 60 per cent chance of a rate hike in September following August’s jobs data. Brent nears $100 a barrel as the U.S. and Iran engage in fire across the weekend. The U.S. military said it had targeted 3 Iranian oil tankers following missile launches at two American vessels.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

A new economic order for the AI era looms over talks at the European House – Ambrosetti Forum, as policymakers and business leaders gather at Lake Como. Equities rally and yields ease, while Norway’s sovereign wealth fund floats unwinding some of its Treasury holdings by roughly $80 billion. Today’s U.S. jobs report has traders locked in a dead heat, with CME FedWatch futures on the fence as investors look for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. And Volkswagen’s board approves an overhaul that will slash 50,000 jobs and halve its vehicle line-up after a tense standoff with unions.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.