Five Risks Investors Should Watch Right Now: #183

Shane Oliver sits down with Tim Wilson, Member for Goldstein and Shadow Treasurer, to discuss Australia’s economic direction, productivity and cost-of-living pressures, the role of government and free markets, and why small business matters for future growth. They also explore regulation, government spending, tax reform, investment and risk-taking, and what Australia needs to do to rebuild economic opportunity, confidence and optimism.Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 06 November 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group

Fresh from her travels through the Middle East and Central Asia, Diana Mousina joins My Bui to unpack three big economic themes: how Middle East tensions are affecting oil flows, inflation and consumers; what Australia could learn from overseas approaches to construction and housing; and how cities and communities can better accommodate families and children. They also explore US mortgage rates and markets, Australia’s housing challenges, regulation, wages and the productivity puzzle. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 15 October 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group 00:00 Diana’s travels and lessons from abroad01:16 Middle East oil flows recover02:00 How ship-to-ship oil transfers work03:14 Why oil prices remain above $10004:13 Energy costs, inflation and consumers05:18 US politics, energy prices and markets06:01 US mortgages, housing and the AI boom07:01 What overseas construction can teach Australia08:22 Regulation and Australia’s housing challenge09:34 Why Australian apartments take longer to build10:11 Cities, children and “third spaces”12:47 Does regulation make simple projects harder?13:29 Wages, labour costs and Australia’s productivity puzzle14:36 Wrap-up

Could AI be making inflation harder to beat? Shane Oliver and My Bui unpack how the AI boom, data centre investment, chip and energy costs, government spending and geopolitical pressures are adding to Australia’s inflation challenge. They also explore how higher interest rates bring inflation down, whether there are fairer alternatives, and what could come next for the RBA and Australian rates.Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 02 October 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group 00:00 What’s driving inflation?01:18 Is AI becoming an inflationary force?02:09 Data centres, construction and Australia’s tradie shortage02:35 AI’s growing demand for energy and materials03:01 Chip and memory costs push technology prices higher04:04 Why tech equipment is shifting from deflation to inflation06:19 AI, the Middle East and excess demand07:27 Government spending and Australia’s capacity constraints09:10 The combination of forces keeping inflation elevated10:12 Can higher interest rates still bring inflation down?11:16 How rate hikes flow through the economy13:22 Are there fairer alternatives to raising interest rates?14:43 Why inflation control falls to independent central banks16:41 What could happen to interest rates next?17:21 The outlook for the RBA’s next moves

Markets have enjoyed a strong run, but are there warning signs investors should be watching? In this episode, Diana Mousina and My Bui unpack five key risks that could impact markets in the months ahead, from rising bond yields and interest rate expectations to Middle East tensions, US politics and a slowing Australian consumer. They also explain why long-term investors shouldn't lose sight of the opportunities that still exist despite the uncertainty. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 17 September 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group00:00 Introduction: Why investors should pay attention to risks01:05 Risk #1: Rising bond yields and why markets care03:49 Risk #2: Interest rate expectations increase04:33 Why the US Fed may still raise rates07:12 Fed credibility, politics and market expectations09:20 Risk #3: Middle East tensions and oil prices10:19 Risk #4: Trump, US politics and midterm elections12:00 Risk #5: Australian consumer slowdown13:45 What it means for markets and investor returns14:12 Reasons to remain optimistic long term14:37 Closing remarks.

Australia's retirement system is often called one of the best in the world, but are retirees making the most of it? As AMP launches its Retirement Confidence Pulse for 2026, Diana Mousina sits down with AMP's Ben Hillier to explore the shape of retirement today: why many retirees are spending less than they can afford, the growing divide between homeowners and renters, and whether Australians are too fearful of running out of money. They also discuss intergenerational wealth transfer, helping children into the housing market, unlocking home equity, and why confidence may be the missing ingredient to a better retirement.Read more on the Retirement Confidence Pulse for 2026https://www.amp.com.au/about-amp/news/2026/september/Retirement-confidence-flatlines-as-fear-of--running-out-grips-three-in-five-AustraliansImportant information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 03 September 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP GroupTimestamps00:00 Introduction and Australia's two-speed economy01:18 What retirement looks like in Australia today03:29 Why retirees could be spending more04:42 Home ownership, mortgages and retirement07:28 The Bank of Mum and Dad09:19 How much money do you really need to retire?10:00 The "10-30-60" retirement spending rule11:32 Why spending naturally declines in retirement13:03 Is $500,000 enough for retirement?14:02 Biggest challenges facing retirees14:39 Why Australia's retirement system is so complex15:14 Do retirees really need financial advice?17:08 New retirement income solutions explained18:23 Unlocking home equity in retirement20:27 Should retirees leave an inheritance?21:49 Giving with a warm hand, not a cold hand22:01 The coming $3.5 trillion wealth transfer22:44 Is Australia's retirement system world-leading?23:26 How confidence changes retirement spending24:09 Closing remarks

Australia's latest profit reporting season is showing its strongest results in years, but is it enough to compete with booming global markets? Shane Oliver and Diana Mousina unpack company earnings, the outlook for Australian shares, the Reserve Bank's interest rate dilemma, persistent inflation pressures, and the debate around superannuation's role in tackling cost-of-living challenges.Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 21 August 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group00:00 Introduction and profit reporting season begins02:02 Australia's strongest earnings season in years03:21 Why US company profits are outperforming Australia04:39 Dividends, franking credits and investor returns06:06 Australia vs global shares outlook06:38 Budget changes and capital gains tax concerns08:00 Property market impacts and RBA policy outlook09:19 Should the RBA be raising rates now?13:26 Forecasts, inflation and the role of economists16:19 Shane and Diana's interest rate predictions17:09 Consumer spending, wages and inflation pressures18:04 Buying Australian products vs imports21:05 Could superannuation help fight inflation?23:23 Debate over accessing super during cost-of-living pressures24:25 Why long-term super investing still matters25:52 Wrap up

Markets may be near record highs, but are investors becoming too comfortable? In this episode, My Bui and Diana Mousina explore the latest developments in the US-Iran conflict, what a potential deal could mean for markets and oil prices, and why rising geopolitical tensions could have lasting consequences for inflation, government debt and defence spending. They also unpack concerns around Japan's debt and currency pressures, Australia's latest inflation data, and what it all means for interest rates, household spending and investment markets.Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 07 August 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group00:00 Markets near record highs: what's driving optimism?00:31 US-Iran tensions and escalating geopolitical risks02:13 Why markets still expect a deal03:25 What a full-scale conflict could mean for markets and oil04:16 Strait of Hormuz and global energy supply risks06:10 Long-term consequences of the conflict06:30 Modern warfare: drones, cyber attacks and AI07:37 Defence spending and its economic impact08:48 Inflation, debt and higher government spending09:31 Why rising debt could keep bond yields elevated10:14 Japan's debt burden explained11:10 Inflation, currencies and Japan's economic challenges12:09 US support for the Japanese yen13:03 Currency intervention and market fundamentals15:29 Is now a good time to visit Japan?17:00 Australia's latest inflation update17:49 What it means for the RBA and interest rates18:36 Household spending remains surprisingly strong19:11 Why interest rates may stay higher for longer19:31 Wrap-up and key takeaways

Rising tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher and reignited concerns about inflation, interest rates and global growth. In this episode, Shane Oliver and Diana Mousina unpack the implications of the Iran conflict, the outlook for US and Australian economies, whether AI and technology stocks can continue their strong run, the latest on Trump's tariff policies, and what it all means for share markets over the months ahead. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 24 July 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group00:00 Introduction00:20 Iran conflict and rising oil prices01:42 Strait of Hormuz and global energy supply risks03:05 Energy reserves and US political implications03:43 Trump's Middle East dilemma05:19 Could the conflict become a prolonged war?06:48 Why share markets have stalled07:09 Tech sector concerns and semiconductor weakness07:50 US earnings season and market expectations08:18 AI boom: bubble or long-term opportunity?09:43 Global inflation trends10:08 US inflation and the Fed outlook11:30 Interest rate risks for markets12:14 Trump's latest tariff proposals12:59 Canada tariffs and trade impacts13:51 Forced labour tariffs explained15:22 The broader impact of trade policy16:35 Share market outlook and key risks17:01 What investors should watch next17:22 12-month market outlook17:49 Australia's economy, rates and living standards18:22 Perspective on economic conditions18:48 Closing remarks

Shane Oliver and My Bui are joined by NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey to discuss his journey into politics, the lessons of the Hawke-Keating reform era, housing affordability, tax reform, productivity challenges and the latest NSW Budget. The conversation explores cost-of-living relief, government spending, housing supply, construction innovation and why economic reform remains critical to Australia's future prosperity.Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 03 July 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group0:00 Introduction and meet NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey0:25 Daniel's path into politics and economics2:57 Life outside politics: BBQs, meat smoking and family5:01 What it's like delivering a state budget6:19 Hawke, Keating and Australia's reform legacy9:00 Why successful reform requires social consensus11:20 Inflation, wages and the role of unions13:10 Economics, young Australians and social media15:29 Tax reform and Australia's changing economy20:53 Priorities of the 2025 NSW Budget21:36 Cost-of-living relief measures explained22:19 Housing affordability and supply challenges24:00 Building approvals and apartment shortages25:07 Why housing costs are higher in NSW27:13 Construction productivity and modular housing29:04 Planning reform and housing regulation30:08 Controlling government spending and inflation34:07 Public expectations of government spending35:21 Australia's balance between fairness and ambition36:30 Populism, politics and social media37:25 Why Daniel remains optimistic about Australia38:20 Closing remarks and thanks

Shane Oliver and Diana Mousina unpack the gap between perception and reality in today’s economy. From inflation and interest rates to housing affordability, wages and lifestyle changes, they compare life now versus the 1970s to ask a bigger question: are we actually worse off, or just feeling it? The conversation explores rising expectations, the impact of choice, social media, and government support—and why resetting expectations and focusing on long-term fundamentals could be key to financial wellbeing.Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general tax information provided is intended as a guide only. Remember the value of investments may go up or down and you may not get back the amount you invested. The opinions and views featured in this podcast reflect the individual’s own. Date of publication 29 June 2026. AWM Services Pty Ltd ABN 15 139 353 496, AFSL No. 366121, part of the AMP Group00:00 – Intro00:01 – Inflation update and fuel price impact00:39 – Will the RBA hike rates again?01:14 – Why people feel worse off today01:47 – Cost of living pressures explained02:20 – Nostalgia: was the past better?02:43 – Housing, wages and affordability then vs now04:33 – Workforce changes and female participation05:32 – Choice, stress and modern life06:32 – Inflation in the 1970s vs today07:26 – Income growth vs real purchasing power08:15 – Travel, lifestyle and spending changes09:29 – Globalisation and diversity in Australia12:56 – Shift to services and experiences13:56 – Education, careers and delayed earnings14:44 – Is too much choice making us unhappy?16:06 – Work ethic, jobs and expectations17:09 – Government spending and welfare dependence18:15 – Life expectancy and quality of life19:24 – Safety improvements over time20:22 – Why confidence is still low21:02 – Expectations vs reality22:10 – Social comparison and social media impact23:29 – Community decline and social connection24:49 – Work-life balance pressures25:02 – Can we go back to simpler times?25:43 – Productivity and income stagnation26:11 – Practical steps: spending, saving, expectations27:25 – Final thoughts: gratitude and perspective