Episode 416: The Tau Of El Yama, Accumulation Versus Decumulation Portfolios, Cracked CAPE Crystal Balls And Portfolio Reviews As Of April 18, 2025

In this episode we answer emails from Marco Esquandolas and Multi-Family Investor.  We discuss a long-term diversified Roth portfolio for a 13-year old, modelling Delaware Statutory Trusts in a portfolio, transitioning out of an all S&P 500 allocation in a taxable account, PFIX, Sabine Royalty Trust and individual stocks in retirement portfolios, and M1 Finance.Note/Correction:  Sabine is actually NOT structured like an MLP but as a true trust and therefore issues 1099s, not K-1s like most companies in the oil & gas royalty space.Links:Shannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsIDMO vs EFG (and other international growth funds) Analysis:  testfol.io/analysis?s=4PEQ1YvTbAMBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Dive into the world of strategic portfolio building with this illuminating episode where Frank tackles questions from two distinct investors at opposite ends of the age spectrum. A father shares his 13-year-old son's Shannon's Demon-inspired portfolio that's being built for an ultra-long 50+ year time horizon, featuring a balanced approach to growth and value across both domestic and international markets. Frank offers targeted advice on fund selection while celebrating this young investor's precocious financial journey.The conversation shifts dramatically when an engineer earning $250,000-300,000 annually shares his detailed retirement strategy with hopes of financial independence before 50. With $3.4 million spread across multiple investment vehicles including real estate, this listener puzzles over how to transition to a risk parity portfolio without triggering a substantial tax bill. Frank methodically dissects several aspects of this complex situation, questioning the wisdom of backdoor Roth conversions during peak earning years and clarifying misconceptions about Delaware Statutory Trusts as bond substitutes.What makes this episode particularly valuable is Frank's blend of technical advice and practical wisdom. He cuts through complex tax and investment strategies to offer straightforward solutions - identifying tax-loss harvesting opportunities, rethinking account structures, and focusing on expenses rather than arbitrary portfolio targets. The discussion extends to specialized investments like royalty trusts and interest rate hedges, providing listeners with a masterclass in portfolio construction that balances theoretical ideals with real-world constraints.Whether you're managing investments for the next generation or planning your own early retirement, this episode delivers actionable insights on building resilient, tax-efficient portfolios tailored to your unique circumstances. The principles shared apply across market conditions and investment goals, making this essential listening for any DIY investor seeking to optimize their financial future.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from El Yama, Graham, and James.  We discuss using risk parity-style portfolios for intermediate term needs, the short-term bond allocation in the Golden Butterfly, accounting for child credit, rising equity glidepaths, the fundamental differences between 100% stock portfolios and diversified portfolios and why you want the latter for retirement unless your goal is to die with the most money, and a CAPE ratio critique from Meb Faber's podcast.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Kitces Article re Rising Glidepaths:  The Benefits Of A Rising Equity Glidepath In RetirementKitces/Pfau Paper re Rising Glidepaths:  Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide-Path by Wade D. Pfau, Michael Kitces :: SSRNMeb Faber Podcast with Brian Jacobs discussing problems with CAPE ratio predictions:  A Century of No Return! The Truth About The Beloved Bonds (Brian Jacobs of Aptus Reveals)Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds," begins this thought-provoking exploration of why most investors are trapped in accumulation-phase thinking even as they approach or enter retirement. The question at the heart of this episode strikes at a surprising disconnect in personal finance: Why do so many investors intellectually understand they're investing to enjoy retirement, yet construct portfolios clearly designed to maximize wealth at death? Through a series of illuminating listener emails, Frank unpacks how portfolios optimized for accumulation often fail spectacularly during the decumulation phase. One listener confesses he "always wondered why anyone would buy bonds when clearly stocks give a far greater return," before discovering through portfolio testing that a 100% equity portfolio would have "failed catastrophically" for someone retiring around 2000-2003.This recognition—that diversification isn't about maximizing returns but enabling sustainable withdrawals—represents the fundamental insight many investors miss until too late. As Frank colorfully puts it, if your goal is to "die with the most money possible" in your "golden coffin," then by all means stick with 90-100% equities. But if you actually intend to enjoy your retirement by spending more than 3% of your portfolio annually, a properly diversified approach becomes essential.The episode also addresses why attempts to use valuation metrics like CAPE ratios to predict market movements have largely failed, and why separating your portfolio into growth and value components offers a more reliable approach to capturing rebalancing bonuses without attempting market timing.Make sure your investment behavior actually matches your stated goals. If you're planning to spend in retirement, construct a portfolio that optimizes for sustainable withdrawals, not maximum theoretical returns.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Corn Pop, Dustin and Jim.  We discuss annuities for elderly parents, TIPS ladders in retirement, REITs in small cap value funds, currency speculation, the GDE fund (again) and an aggressive portfolio construction.Link:Interview of Michael Kitces Re Problems With TIPS Ladders:  Michael Kitces: How Higher Yields Affect Asset Allocation and Retirement Planning | MorningstarBreathless and Promotional AI-Bot Summary:Dive into the mailbag as Frank tackles complex investment questions with his signature blend of expertise and pop culture references. This episode unpacks several critical financial planning dilemmas that challenge conventional wisdom.First, Frank examines when annuities make sense for elderly parents, explaining how health prospects and longevity expectations should guide this decision. For those likely to outlive actuarial tables, annuities can provide financial value and simplify management—but they're far from universally beneficial. Frank introduces Qualified Longevity Annuity Contracts (QLACs) as a strategic option for those concerned about funding long-term care in their later years.The conversation shifts to a provocative take on TIPS ladders, with Frank describing long-term ladders as "a flex for hoarders" rather than necessary financial tools. He argues these complicated structures work best for defined periods with specific purposes—like bridging to Social Security—not as decades-long income vehicles that will inevitably be either too long or too short for your actual lifespan.Currency speculation, Bitcoin, and aggressive portfolio construction round out the episode's explorations. Frank explains how currency exposure already exists implicitly in international stocks and gold without dedicated speculation, evaluates an aggressive portfolio with substantial Bitcoin allocation, and questions whether dividend stocks belong in accumulation strategies.Throughout, Frank balances technical analysis with practical wisdom, reminding listeners that personalized investment approaches must account for individual circumstances rather than following generic advice. Whether you're managing a retirement portfolio or building wealth, you'll gain valuable perspective on how the finest investment strategies align with your actual needs rather than theoretical ideals.Want your questions answered on a future episode? Email [email protected] and don't forget to subscribe and leave a review!Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Jeremy, Brad, and James.  We discuss a more aggressive risk-parity portfolio similar to the Weird Portfolio, the problems with data analysis and recency bias and considerations in accounting for Social Security or pensions in retirement portfolio planning.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Jeremy's Portfolio on Portfolio Visualizer:  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=LDhLHuhVF5zOKfTZckLT7Weird Portfolio:  Weird Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsTestfolio Portfolio Comparison (90/10 vs. 50/50):  https://testfol.io/?s=2TDnqWEw5FEBogle Interview (re Social Security):  Jack Bogle on Index Funds, Vanguard, and Investing AdviceKitces Interview (re Social Security):  Social Security: Part of Your Asset Allocation?Breathless AI-Bot Summary:  "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds," begins this episode, capturing the essence of breaking away from conventional investment thinking. Stepping into Frank's metaphorical "dive bar of personal finance," listeners are treated to an exploration of portfolio diversification during turbulent market conditions.Frank tackles three thought-provoking listener questions that challenge common investing assumptions. First, he analyzes a balanced portfolio proposal with equal allocations to large-cap growth, small-cap value, REITs, long-term treasuries, and gold, explaining why this more aggressive risk parity approach shows promising safe withdrawal rates. The conversation shifts to the dangers of recency bias when a listener questions the underperformance of a 50-50 small-cap value/large-cap growth portfolio over just five years. Frank emphasizes that even a decade of data can be "just noise" when evaluating investment strategies, reminding us to focus on performance during challenging market periods rather than recent returns.Perhaps most compelling is Frank's fresh perspective on integrating Social Security into financial planning. Challenging the notion that Social Security should be viewed as fixed-income allocation, he suggests treating it more like an annuity that reduces expenses rather than an asset within your portfolio. This shifts the conversation from wealth preservation to life maximization, encouraging retirees to consider increasing discretionary spending rather than hoarding assets.The weekly portfolio review reveals a fascinating market story: while the S&P 500 has fallen 8.64% year-to-date and small-cap value has plummeted 19.69%, gold has surged 23.12%. This perfect illustration of risk parity principles shows how properly diversified portfolios maintain remarkable stability despite individual asset volatility. The unlevered sample portfolios remain down less than 1% year-to-date, demonstrating the power of hearing that "different drummer" when constructing your investment approach.Have questions about building your own diversified portfolio? Email [email protected] or visit the website to connect directly. Don't forget to subscribe and leave a review wherever you listen to podcasts!Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Harry, Sally, Jack and Javon.  We discuss recovering from financial set-backs, my life on the Choose FI board, assets that do well in inflationary environments and large cap growth funds like MGK in Merriman-type portfolios.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterMindset by Carol Dweck:  Mindset: The New Psychology of Success by Carol S. Dweck | GoodreadsBloomberg Presentation On Investments In Inflationary Environments:  MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdfShannon's Demon Article from Portfolio Charts:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsTestfolio Analysis of MGK and other funds:  testfol.io/analysis?s=lbssElueG9DAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:When financial disaster strikes, where do you turn? In this deeply empathetic episode, Frank Vasquez responds to a listener who's lost nearly everything through leveraged investments caught in market turmoil. His compassionate yet practical response offers a roadmap back from financial devastation, emphasizing that starting from net worth zero with income potential creates a foundation many successful investors have built upon.The conversation shifts to examining the psychology behind financial social media, where Frank taxonomizes poster behaviors into revealing categories. From genuine question-askers to Dunning-Kruger sufferers repeating harmful advice from financial media marketing materials disguised as guidance, this analysis helps listeners navigate confusing information landscapes. His take on affirmation-seekers posting humble brags or seeking validation for poor decisions provides particular insight into why certain destructive financial ideas persist online.With inflation concerns mounting due to potential tariffs and immigration restrictions, Frank offers practical portfolio protection strategies beyond traditional TIPS, which merely help investors tread water rather than outperform during inflationary periods. His breakdown of managed futures, commodities, value-tilted stocks in hard assets, and property/casualty insurance companies provides actionable alternatives. The discussion culminates in comparing investment theorist Paul Merriman's value-tilted ETF recommendations with Frank's diversification approach using Shannon's Demon principles, demonstrating how different philosophical frameworks can lead to successful long-term investing.What distinguishes this episode is Frank's ability to balance technical expertise with emotional intelligence, offering not just investment strategies but wisdom about resilience and perspective during financial hardship. Whether you're recovering from losses or preparing for economic uncertainty, this episode delivers both tactical guidance and reassuring wisdom from someone who's weathered financial storms himself.Have questions? Connect at [email protected] or through the website contact form. Please like, subscribe, and share with fellow investors seeking thoughtful financial guidance.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Ron, Iain, an Anonymous Visitor and Mr. Data.  We discuss Ron's generosity and his variable or guardrails withdrawal strategy, some helpful British website references, what we use bonds for in these portfolio and how the TSP G fund fits into that, and small cap growth vs. small cap value stocks.  And some notes on recent market turmoil.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterPortfolio Charts Retirement Spending:  Retirement Spending – Portfolio ChartsMonevator Quilt Chart:  Asset allocation quilt – the winners and losers of the last 10 years - Monevator Just ETF (UK) Page:  ETF portfolios made simpleShannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Market crashes reveal the true value of diversification. While Professor Jeremy Siegel called last week's events "the worst policy mistake in US economic history in the last 95 years," properly structured portfolios weathered the storm remarkably well.The recent market plunge shows exactly why risk parity strategies work—the S&P 500 dropped 13.3%, NASDAQ fell 17.2%, but our All Seasons portfolio remained flat for the year. This divergence creates powerful rebalancing opportunities that can enhance long-term returns.Looking at performance across asset classes reveals a classic recession pattern: falling stocks, rising treasury bonds, and initial panic selling followed by differentiated recoveries. Long-term Treasury bonds (VGLT) are up 7.2% for the year, demonstrating their crucial diversification role during market stress. Gold, despite some wobbles, remains up 15.7% year-to-date.The mathematical principle behind this outperformance is what Claude Shannon described as "Shannon's Demon"—when assets perform differently at different times, periodic rebalancing allows the portfolio to outperform any individual component. This explains why we maintain exposure to both growth and value styles, rather than trying to predict which will outperform next.For DIY investors, this market correction offers valuable lessons about portfolio construction. Understanding why you hold each asset—whether for stability, income, or diversification—is far more important than chasing yields. The Golden Butterfly portfolio, with its balanced approach across stocks, bonds, and gold, is only down 1.78% year-to-date while continuing to provide consistent distributions.Want to learn more about building resilient portfolios? Visit riskparityradio.com for sample portfolios and detailed resources, or email your questions to [email protected] the show

In this episode we answer emails from Michael, Brian and Ed.  We discuss Michael's situation and options as a 34-year old with growing portfolios and a growing family, Brian's questions about the infernal Cederburg paper that won't go away and Ed's questions about accumulation portfolios.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterTestfolio Comparison between Total Market and Large Cap Growth:  testfol.io/analysis?s=0GbmPE8D9GKMerriman Best In Class ETFs:  Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations | Merriman Financial Education FoundationShannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsRational Reminder Podcast #350:  Episode 350 - Scott Cederburg: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice — Rational ReminderAn Actually Useful Analysis of Global Portfolios:  What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio ChartsBrian's Golden Butterfly Monte Carlo:  Monte Carlo SimulationBrian's All Equity 50/50 Monte Carlo:  Monte Carlo SimulationBrian's All Equity 34/66 Monte Carlo:  Monte Carlo SimulationAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Frank Vasquez tackles the complex world of portfolio construction across different life stages, offering practical wisdom mixed with his trademark humor for investors at all levels. This episode dives deep into a $1 million portfolio review, addressing how to balance real estate investments with securities, manage excess cash, and prepare for eventual retirement.A key highlight is Frank's thorough debunking of a frequently misunderstood academic study suggesting all-equity portfolios are optimal for retirement. With mathematical clarity, he explains why the study's unusual methodology comparing non-reserve currency bonds to U.S. equities across disconnected historical periods doesn't translate to practical investment advice. His Monte Carlo simulation comparisons confirm that diversified portfolios consistently outperform all-equity approaches during drawdown scenarios.The episode offers particularly valuable insights on pairing large-cap growth with small-cap value investments – not because either category is predicted to outperform, but because they create effective rebalancing pairs operating on different cycles while delivering similar long-term returns. This mathematical principle, known as Shannon's demon, shows how two assets with comparable returns but different timing can outperform either investment held alone.For younger investors still accumulating wealth, Frank recommends focusing on equity exposure while avoiding unnecessary complexity. His practical advice extends to managing investments across different account types, structuring 401(k) investments with limited options, and maintaining psychological fortitude through market cycles. Whether you're managing a complex portfolio or just starting youSupport the show

In this episode we answer emails from Deeps, David, James, Steven and Jordan.  We discuss the PHYS vs other gold ETFs, the podcast feed link, using AVGE in a risk parity style portfolio, why we do this and tail risk hedging.  And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:PHYS vs. GLDM:  testfol.io/analysis?s=1lK9VB9xqaMRPR Main Feed Link (all the podcasts -- open in browser):  Risk Parity Radio RSS FeedAVGE Composition And Other Info:  AVGE – Portfolio – Avantis All Equity Markets ETF | MorningstarPortfolio Matrix:  Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio ChartsCAOS Fund:  CAOS – Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF – ETF Stock Quote | MorningstarAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:  Gold continues to shine while stocks falter in 2024's challenging market environment. This episode demonstrates the power of diversification during turbulent times, with precious metals up over 17% year-to-date as the S&P 500 struggles down nearly 5%. We explore why truly diversified portfolios are proving their worth yet again.Responding to a listener question about gold ETFs, I break down why PHYS's potential tax advantages rarely outweigh its higher expense ratio compared to traditional options like GLD. The physical gold redemption feature sounds appealing but offers little practical benefit for most investors. The entire physical gold storage industry largely profits from fear rather than delivering substantive advantages to everyday investors.The highlight of this episode comes from a fascinating listener discovery – combining the comprehensive Avantis AVGE fund with treasuries and gold creates a remarkably simple yet effective portfolio. This approach addresses a critical concern: ensuring surviving spouses can easily manage investments without sacrificing performance. Our analysis using Portfolio Charts shows this simplified approach delivers comparable results to more complex allocations while dramatically reducing management complexity.We also tackle tail risk hedging strategies, explaining why these insurance-like approaches rarely justify their ongoing costs, especially for investors in the accumulation phase. True diversification provides more reliable protection than specialized instruments designed to profit from market crashes.The portfolio performance review tells the real story – while traditional stock allocations struggle, our diversified sample portfolios are mostly holding steady or positive for the year. Historical patterns suggest diversified portfolios experience down years only about 20% of the time versus 30% for traditional approaches – a meaningful difference that compounds over retirement timeframes.Have questions about navigating today's challenging markets? Send them to [email protected] – I'd love to answer them in an upcoming episode!Support the show

In this episode we reflect on our recent meet-up and answer emails from Chris, Gigi and Mark.  We discuss preferred shares funds and PFFA in particular, considerations about allocations in a TSP based on goals and current progress in your financial life, and them thar new-fangled return stacked funds.Links:PFFA Summary:  PFFA – Virtus InfraCap US Preferred Stock ETF – ETF Stock Quote | MorningstarReturn Stacked Funds Page:  Home - Return Stacked® ETFsAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Welcome to the dive bar of personal finance and do-it-yourself investing, where Frank Vasquez serves up straight talk with a splash of humor. This episode tackles core investment principles that cut through the noise of complex financial products and contradictory advice.Frank begins by exploring preferred shares funds, specifically PFFA, explaining why its 20% leverage delivers higher returns but also brings greater volatility and a concerning 2%+ expense ratio. This leads into a deeper discussion about when specialized investment vehicles make sense for different investors and why tax implications matter when considering preferred shares positions.The heart of the episode focuses on a listener's TSP allocation question, which Frank uses to illustrate a fundamental investment truth: many investors start at the wrong end of the planning process. Rather than beginning with fund selection, Frank outlines the proper sequence: first determine your overall financial needs, then establish appropriate asset allocations, and only then select specific funds. He draws an important distinction between accumulation portfolios (where growth is paramount) and retirement portfolios (where volatility management becomes critical).Throughout the conversation, Frank emphasizes that diversification primarily reduces volatility rather than enhances returns. This insight proves particularly valuable when evaluating new investment products like return-stacked ETFs that combine traditional assets with alternatives like managed futures and merger arbitrage. While intriguing, Frank suggests most investors would benefit more from simpler approaches with established track records.Whether you're nearing retirement or still in accumulation mode, this episode delivers clear frameworks for making better investment decisions, reminding us that successful investing stems from understanding your unique financial situation rather than chasing complicated strategies. Want more straight talk on building effective portfolios? Subscribe, leave a review, or reach out to [email protected] with your questions.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Randy, Richard and Jamie.  We discuss rebalancing frequency, share-lending at Fidelity, moves in Morningstar's style boxes and strips treasury funds vs. long term treasury bond funds.And we announce the new listing of the Golden Ratio portfolio at Portfolio Charts and thank Tyler and Van for that.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterGolden Ratio Portfolio at Portfolio Charts:  Golden Ratio Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsGolden Ratio Portfolio Write-Up:  Beautiful Constants and the Golden Ratio Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsKitces Article re Rebalancing:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance BandsDiscussion of Changes to Morningstar's Style Boxes:  Morningstar redefines growth/value style box criteria - Bogleheads.orgRisk Parity Radio All Episodes Feed Page:  Risk Parity Radio RSS FeedAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Exciting news opens this episode as Frank announces the Golden Ratio Portfolio has been officially added to Portfolio Charts, complete with its own dedicated page and insightful write-up. This recognition represents a significant milestone for a portfolio strategy that has been a cornerstone topic throughout Risk Parity Radio's 400+ episodes.The heart of the episode focuses on answering thoughtful listener questions about portfolio management techniques. Randy inquires about rebalancing frequency and whether to participate in Fidelity's securities lending program for gold ETFs. Frank explains that while rebalancing more frequently than once a year generally doesn't improve performance, coordinating semi-annual rebalancing with tax planning can be advantageous. As for securities lending, Frank shares his personal experience that these programs work smoothly but typically generate minimal income—setting realistic expectations for listeners considering this option.A particularly detailed discussion explores the nuances between traditional long-term treasury funds and STRIPS funds (GOVZ, ZROZ, EDV). Frank clarifies that STRIPS-based ETFs typically move at approximately 1.5 times the rate of standard long-term treasury funds when interest rates change, effectively functioning as a form of leverage. This characteristic makes them valuable tools for tax-loss harvesting or creating more efficient allocations by achieving similar interest rate sensitivity with smaller position sizes. Rather than focusing on market timing for transitions between these instruments, Frank emphasizes coordinating such moves with broader tax management strategies—practical advice that demonstrates how risk parity investors can implement sophisticated portfolio techniques while maintaining tax efficiency.Want to connect with other Risk Parity Radio listeners? Frank announces a meetup at the Economy Conference at the Solari Hotel. Email [email protected] for details and to join the community of thoughtful DIY investors exploring alternatives to traditional asset allocation.Support the show