Going with the Global Flows

The big things you need to know:• First, our tiers of fear, sentiment, and valuation analysis suggest that the stock market could stabilize soon, even if Thursday’s close doesn’t turn out to be the low. But thinking about the next few months and into early next year, it’s important to remember that fundamentals still matter as our valuation and sentiment work are not “washed out.”• Second, we likely need to see earnings sentiment stabilize to power P/Es higher.• Third, other things that jump out in our indicators include the strong end to the week by Small Caps on the heels of Friday’s NFP print, the state of sector valuations after Thursday’s drop, and some new work we’ve done analyzing how S&P 500 sectors may respond to shifts in interest rates, gas prices, and consumer confidence/sentiment in the year ahead.

This week, we have a special edition in which we highlight some new analysis that we'vecollaborated on with some of our colleagues. You’ll be hearing from Simon Simoski from myteam, along with Sara Mahaffy (RBC Canadian Equity and Sustainability Strategist) and ChrisLouney (RBC Commodity Strategist). They’ll be discussing their big findings for global assetclasses, within US and non-US equities, for major sectors and themes in global developedmarkets, and within Canada, sustainability, and commodities. The big thing you need to know softening resilience, and brewing rotation was a theme across all of our work collectively.

The big things you need to know:First, we are staying on the sidelines with Tech following our mid October downgrade, while also reiterating our overweight on Health Care.Second, we add to our thoughts on the midterms, highlighting how recent developments impact our view of the set up, and what we’ve learned from our ongoing review of the big issues in close races that could be relevant to sector calls going forward.Third, we highlight the recent inflection in Small Cap performance relative to Large Cap and walk through why we’re turning constructive on Small Caps for now, plus risks to our view.

The big things you need to know:First, we review our thoughts on the US midterm elections, where we think it makes sense to be prepared for all outcomes. We run through our thoughts on the implications of each outcome for the US equity market based on the historical playbook and our analyst survey work, and also review our analysis of what stock market relevant issues have been in focus in battleground Congressional campaigns.Second, other things that jump out include the still lackluster stats for 3Q26 reporting season, the relationship between P/Es and earnings revisions trends, and developments in the latest EPFR data on funds flows including strength in Health Care.

The big things you need to know:First, 3Q26 reporting season is off to a slightly soft start on the stats, with company commentary generally still highlighting resilience in the economy and consumers and tailwinds from AI, with some caveats, while giving investors plenty to think about in terms of risks that may lie ahead.Second, recurring topics in conversations last week with US investors included midterms, earnings, and positioning. Overall, investors came across as neutral with a dose of nervousness and a bit more short-term focused than usual.Third, other things that jump out in our other updates include the broad pivot we’re seeing in a number of key positioning trades and the recent widening in high yield credit spreads, which is a new potential point of concern for Small Caps.

The big things you need to know:First, we enter 3Q26 reporting season seeing risks in both directions.Second, the investors we met with in Canada last week were best described as cautiously optimistic, with earnings, midterms, and confusion over recent resiliency in the equity market all top of mind.Third, other things that jump out this week include the recent surge in US performance relative to non-US which may be on borrowed time, the bounce back in investor sentiment, and a few important shifts in sector valuations ahead of reporting season.

The big things you need to know:First, our analysts are moderately constructive across the globe, though we did detect a bit more optimism outside of the US.Second, Energy, Health Care, and Technology stand out at the global sector level for capturing some of the most optimistic views on all of our main questions.Third, within the US, muted midterm views remain in place at the broader stock market level, but our analysts did highlight a few potential sector trades in different scenarios.Fourth, in terms of key risks, our US analysts expressed more concern about the potential for higher interest rates than the potential weakening of the AI theme.

The big things you need to know:First, Friday’s weaker than expected jobs report, which was still viewed as healthy by our economists, left us feeling incrementally better about Small Cap.Second, other things that jump out in our updates this week include the stall in stock market optimism among consumers in the latest Conference Board survey, recent deterioration in our earnings yield gap model, low layoff levels in the Challenger report, the stall in Democratic sweep expectations in midterm betting markets, and the expensive valuations we continue to see in Financials, Industrials, and Utilities.

The big things you need to know:First, we reviewed the drawdowns in the S&P 500 of 11% or more dating back to 1956, an exercise that helps to clarify why US equities have been resilient recently (in particular, strong earnings and capex dynamics).Second, other things that jump out in our updates include the link between crude oil and 10-year yields, the renewed leadership of the US and mega cap growth trades, the lack of movement in consensus EPS forecasts for most sectors (ex Energy, Mag 7, and Tech) in September, the slight softening of C suite confidence we saw in the latest Duke CFO survey, and the surge in expectations for a Democratic sweep in betting markets.

The big things you need to know:First, our review of S&P 500 performance during the Fed hiking cycles that have occurred since the mid 1990s reminded us that the stock market tends to stumble at lift off, with a median initial drop of 9.6% (ex 2022, which was an extreme outlier). This keeps us vigilant for a near-term tier 1/garden variety pullback of 5-10% in the S&P 500.Second, other things that jumped out in our updates this week included the sharp drop in AAII net bulls to levels that have generally marked the low since early 2025 when the liberation day tariffs shocked the market (which suggests investor sentiment is at a crossroads), and the choppiness we continue to see in most major positioning trades (Growth/Value, US/non-US) other than Small Caps which have continued to underperform Large Caps.