US Market Open: USD and Energy firm, but off highs in thin newsflow after US-Iran flare-up

The text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has not been finalised and confirmed to this point, according to Tasnim.A Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine.The EU is to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports, although no decision was expected on Friday.Crude benchmarks are currently trading towards lows; Brent Aug’26 -1.6%.European bourses are broadly firmer this morning, whilst US equity futures are contained; Dell +37% post-earnings.DXY gains slightly, whilst the Kiwi outperforms after hawkish speak from RBNZ officials.Looking ahead, highlights include German Nationwide CPI (May), Canadian GDP (Q1). Speakers include Fed's Schmid, Bowman, Paulson & Daly. Credit Rating updates include S&P on France & Hungary, Morningstar DBRS on Spain.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The text of the possible memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has not been finalised and confirmed to this point, according to Tasnim.A Romanian radio station reported that a drone hit a residential building in Romania's Galati, near the border with Ukraine.The EU is to discuss restrictions on Chinese imports, although no decision was expected on Friday.APAC stocks headed into month-end on the front foot as the region took impetus from the gains stateside.Crude futures were subdued after wiping out the prior day's initial gains.European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish HICP (May), German Import Prices (Apr), State/Nationwide CPI Prelim. (May), Unemployment Rate (May), French GDP Final (Q1), HICP Prelim. (May), Italian HICP Prelim. (May), Canadian GDP (Q1). Speakers include BoE's Bailey, Fed's Kashkari, Schmid, Bowman, Paulson & Daly. Credit Rating updates include S&P on France & Hungary, Morningstar DBRS on Spain.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A US official said the US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.IRGC said it targeted a US air base in response to the US aggression near Bandar Abbas Airport, while it added that any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response.Air raid sirens sounded in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti Army said air defences were intercepting hostile missiles and drone attacks, according to Al Hadath.European and US equity futures slip as markets digest the recent flare-up; DXY firmer, Brent Aug’26 +2.5%, with fixed income benchmarks on the backfoot.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (May/23), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US Core PCE (Apr), US Durable Goods Orders (Apr), US Real Consumer Spending 2nd Estimate (Q1), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), ECB Minutes (Apr), SARB Policy Announcement (May). Speakers include Fed's Williams & Barkin, BoE's Breeden, ECB's Schnabel & SNB's Schlegel. Supply from the US, Earnings from Dell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A US official said the US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.IRGC said it targeted a US air base in response to the US aggression near Bandar Abbas Airport, while it added that any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response.Air raid sirens sounded in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti Army said air defences were intercepting hostile missiles and drone attacks, according to Al Hadath.US President Trump said he was not discussing easing sanctions on Iran and would keep control of Iran’s money until it behaves, while adding he was uncomfortable with Russia or China taking Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpileCrude futures edged higher after reports of explosions in Iran’s Bandar Abbas; 10yr UST futures continued their slide amid a rebound in oil.APAC stocks were pressured amid a flare-up of geopolitical tensions; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Retail Sales (Apr), EU Consumer Confidence Final (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (May/23), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US Core PCE (Apr), US Durable Goods Orders (Apr), US Real Consumer Spending 2nd Estimate (Q1), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), ECB Minutes (Apr), SARB Policy Announcement (May). Speakers include Fed's Williams & Barkin, BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lane, Lagarde, Cipollone, Schnabel & SNB's Schlegel. Supply from the UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Dell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Central Command spokesperson said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday, in which US forces hit targets, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines.Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East, while the IRGC affirm its right to respond to any ceasefire breach. Global bourses pare Monday's gains after renewed US strikes on Iranian sites, while Ferrari stalls following EV launch.DXY rangebound, Kiwi underperforms heading into RBNZ, Cable reverses from 1.35 while EUR firmer as Schnabel sees a June hike. Fixed income benchmarks hold a negative bias amid higher energy prices, as US strikes Iranian sites in "self-defence."Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Consumer Confidence (May), NBH Policy Announcement (May), Speakers include ECB's Sleijpen, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A US Central Command spokesperson said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday, in which US forces hit targets, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines.US Secretary of State Rubio said US strikes on Iran do not preclude a diplomatic deal and that an Iran deal is possible within days.A source familiar with talks between the high-level Iranian delegation and officials in Doha said Qatari mediation has led to an understanding with the US on Tehran’s frozen financial assets, according to Al Jazeera.Crude futures partially rebounded off the prior day's lows after slumping nearly 7% on Monday.Asia-Pac stocks were mixed; European equity futures indicate a mildly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3%.Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May), Consumer Confidence (May), NBH Policy Announcement (May), Supply from Italy & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump posted on Saturday that an agreement has largely been negotiated, subject to finalisation between the US, Iran and various Middle Eastern countries.US and Iran were reportedly close to signing an agreement involving a 60-day ceasefire extension, which could be extended by mutual consent, according to Axios.US senior officials said the naval blockade will only be lifted after Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, and no funds will be released until enriched uranium is handed over.Crude futures declined amid hopes for a US-Iran agreement after President Trump announced on Saturday that an agreement has largely been negotiated.APAC stocks gained with risk appetite boosted; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.0%.Looking ahead, holidays include cash market closures in the US and UK.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Al Arabiya and Al Hadath exclusively report the text of the anticipated US-Iran agreement in case of its approval. A Pakistani source said that cautious optimism is the prevailing sentiment in the ongoing discussions regarding the planned agreement.However, another Pakistani source said the US and Iran's insistence on raising the bar for their demand regarding uranium and the Strait of Hormuz has led to a "crisis in negotiations." Crude on a firmer footing despite diplomatic efforts.Global equities set to end the week with gains, ahead of the UK/US extended weekend.FX broadly within Thursday's wide ranges; GBP unfazed by PSNB and retail sales, AUD weaker as banks shift tightening call.Fixed income higher, Gilts benefit from cooler-than-expected Retail Sales.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Mar), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May), BoC SLOS (May), Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair with US President Trump to attend. Speakers include Fed's Waller. Credit Ratings: Scope Ratings on China, S&P on Norway, Moody's on Hungary, Portugal & UK.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US stocks ultimately closed higher in what was another choppy session dominated by contradictory geopolitical headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict.Al Arabiya TV was initially reported to have obtained the final draft of a prospective Pakistani-mediated US-Iran agreement, although it was later stated that these reports were fabricated.A senior Iranian source said no deal had been reached yet, but gaps have narrowed, with Iran's uranium enrichment and its control over the Strait of Hormuz among the sticking points.A high-level source familiar with the matter later said the Iranian Supreme Leader's final decision is not to hand over the enriched uranium to Washington, according to Al Hadath.APAC stocks were mostly higher; European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.0%.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun), GDP Final (Q1) & Ifo Business Climate (May), UK Retail Sales (Apr), PSNB (Apr), Canadian Retail Sales (Mar), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May), BoC SLOS (May), and Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair. Speakers include ECB's Lane & Fed's Waller. Credit Ratings: Scope Ratings on China, S&P on Norway, Moody's on Hungary, Portugal & UK.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response, Al Arabiya reported citing sources."Pakistan’s mediation efforts between US and Iran are at a crucial stage where efforts are underway to secure an agreement or a framework for comprehensive talks which can eventually lead to a ‘deal’,"** according to journalist Mallick.European bourses are broadly higher despite disappointing PMIs; US equity futures are flat after NVDA sales guidance disappointed. DXY weighs hawkish FOMC and geopolitics; AUD lags post-jobs data. USTs are a little lower whilst Bunds digest Flash PMIs, which fuel stagflation woes.Crude wanes off highs amid further reports of diplomatic effects; Brent Jul -0.7%. Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P PMIs Flash (May), Initial Jobless Claims (May/16), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (May), Banxico Minutes (May). Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Taylor, ECB's Elderson, Fed's Barkin, Goolsbee. Earnings from Walmart & Deere.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk