US Market Open: NQ outperforms following TSMC +1.8% results, Trump says US-China are in a trade war

US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don't have tariffs, they don't have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.European bourses are mostly higher, SMI bid post-Nestle results and NQ outperforms after strong Q3 TSMC earnings.USD mixed vs. peers, GBP leads whilst AUD was pressured by a weak jobs report.USTs are firmer, fleeting upside in OATs after PM Lecornu survives the 1st no confidence vote; now awaiting the 2nd vote.Crude benchmarks trade rangebound despite rising geopolitical tensions, XAU forms another new ATH.Looking ahead, highlights include Philly Fed (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP, Comments from Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde, BoCʼs Macklem, BoEʼs Greene & Mann.Earnings from Bank of New York Mellon, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, United Airlines, ABB & Bankinter.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don't have tariffs, they don't have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.The US Senate is set to leave for the week on Thursday and is nowhere near ending the shutdown, according to a journalist.BoJ’s Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral, but does not need to raise rates sharply or tighten monetary policy now, given both upside and downside risks.US President Trump said Israeli forces could resume fighting in Gaza as soon as he gives the word if Hamas doesn't uphold the ceasefire deal, according to CNN.APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where most major indices ultimately gained; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Aug), EZ Trade Balance (Aug), Philly Fed (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP, Comments from Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde, BoCʼs Macklem, BoEʼs Greene & Mann, Supply from Spain & France, Earnings from TSMC, Bank of New York Mellon, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, United Airlines, ABB & Bankinter. Suspended Releases: US Weekly Claims, PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep). Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are in the green; LVMH +14% & ASML +3.6% both gain post-earnings; US equity futures also rise.USD losses extend into a second session, EUR remains underpinned by French optimism.USTs incrementally firmer, OATs gain as traders digest the latest pension reform suspension.XAU breaks USD 4200/oz, crude benchmarks muted amid heightened trade tensions.Looking ahead, highlights include NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct), Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep), US Military Pay Date, Fed Beige Book, (Suspended Releases: US CPI), BoE’s Breeden, ECB’s Lane & Lagarde, Fed’s Miran, Bostic, Waller & Schmid, RBA’s Bullock & Kent.Earnings from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Dollar Tree & Progressive.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as expectations for incoming Fed rate cuts helped the region shrug off the mixed lead from Wall St.Fed Chair Powell said downside risks to the US jobs market have risen and rising risks to the job market justified a September interest rate cut.US President Trump announced he is considering terminating business with China regarding cooking oil.European equity futures indicate a firm cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 future up 1.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.DXY is softer and now basically flat on the week, AUD is attempting to atone for recent losses, EUR/USD sits on a 1.16 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Industrial Production (Aug), NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct), Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep), US Military Pay Date, Fed Beige Book, (Suspended Releases: US CPI), BoE’s Ramsden & Breeden, ECB’s de Guindos, Lane & Lagarde, Fed’s Miran, Bostic, Waller & Schmid, RBA’s Bullock & Kent, Supply from UK & Germany.Earnings from ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Dollar Tree & Progressive.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China's MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms; said the US cannot have talks while threatening new restrictions.French PM Lecornu's government is to present a budget aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026, according to La Tribune.Equities lower across the board, as markets digest the latest trade-related escalations by China on the US; traders also await a number of US earnings.JPY benefits from haven bid, GBP hit by soft jobs, Antipodeans dented by risk-tone.Global paper firmer amid the weakened risk tone, Gilts lead after data, OATs await PM Lecornu.Crude benchmarks fall as Middle East tensions ease, XAU pulls back from new ATHs.Looking ahead, US NFIB (Sep), Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speakers including ECB’s Villeroy, Kocher, BoE’s Bailey & Taylor, Fed’s Powell, Waller, Collins & Bowman, BoC’s Rogers, RBA’s Hunter & Hauser, RBNZ’s Conway. Earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, Johnson & Johnson & LVMH.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed following the rebound on Wall St; Japan underperformed on return from holiday/reacted to the ruling coalition split.China's MOFCOM announced that it is taking countermeasures against five US-linked firms; said the US cannot have talks while threatening new restrictions.European equity futures indicate a mildly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.7% on Monday.DXY is a touch softer, antipodeans lag, JPY picked up as the risk sentiment soured, EUR/USD is on the rise and eyeing 1.16.French PM Lecornu's government is to present a budget aiming to reduce the deficit to 4.7% by end-2026, according to La Tribune.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment/Wages (Aug), German ZEW (Oct), US NFIB (Sep), IEA OMR, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, ECB’s Cipollone & Villeroy, BoE’s Bailey & Taylor, Fed’s Powell, Waller, Collins & Bowman, BoC’s Rogers, RBA’s Hunter & Hauser, Supply from Netherlands, Italy & GermanyEarnings from BlackRock, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Wells Fargo, Johnson & Johnson, Bellway & LVMH.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced on Friday that the US is to impose a tariff of 100% on China beginning on November 1st, which will be over and above any tariffs that they are currently paying, while US export controls on critical software will also start on November 1st.US President Trump posted on Sunday, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”APAC stocks began the week in the red as the region reacted to last Friday's Trump tariff threats and the subsequent Wall St sell-off, although US equity futures rebounded due to the softer tone from Trump over the weekend, while Japanese markets were shut for a holiday.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.7% on Friday.US BLS said it will publish the September CPI report on Friday, 24th October 2025, at 08:30EDT/13:30BST.Looking ahead, highlights include German WPI (Sep), OPEC MOMR, Speakers including BoE’s Mann, Fed’s Paulson & RBA’s Hauser. Holidays: US Columbus Day (US bond market will be closed) & Canadian Thanksgiving.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China reportedly launched a customs crackdown on NVIDIA (NVDA) AI chips, according to FT; US President Trump said maybe they will have to stop importing massive amounts from China.China's Transport Ministry announces plans to impose special port fees on US vessels; fees effective from 14th October.BLS is preparing to release a September US CPI report despite the shutdown, according to the NYT. Bloomberg sources suggested staff have been recalled for the preparation of the publication by the end of the month.European bourses are mixed and now generally hold a negative bias, US equity futures are slightly higher.DXY eases after four days of gains whilst JPY sees volatility on the 26-year-old coalition collapse.USTs gain whilst OATs lead, awaiting the French PM announcement.WTI/Brent are on the backfoot as the Gaza ceasefire plan; XAU is marginally higher.Looking ahead, Canadian Employment Report (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Oct), Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans (Sep), Speakers including Fed’s Daly, Goolsbee & Musalem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the negative handover from Wall Street.China reportedly launched a customs crackdown on NVIDIA (NVDA) AI chips, according to FT; US President Trump said maybe they will have to stop importing massive amounts from China.BLS is preparing to release a September US CPI report despite the shutdown, according to the NYT. Bloomberg sources suggested staff have been recalled for the preparation of the publication by the end of the month.Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they are recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves, and it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals.European equity futures indicate an uneventful/subdued cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI (Aug), Canadian Employment Report (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Oct), Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans (Sep), Speakers including Fed’s Daly, Goolsbee & Musalem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China’s government announced export controls on rare earth materials.Hamas-Israel agreed to a Gaza ceasefire deal; conflicting reports whether the ceasefire is in effect, though the Israel Foreign Minister confirmed that it is.European bourses are mixed whilst US equity futures trade around the unchanged mark.DXY grinds higher amid continued NZD losses and a heavy GBP.OATs outperform as the odds of fresh legislative elections diminish, USTs await Fed speak.Crude benchmarks slightly higher despite Gaza ceasefire deal, XAU takes a breather.Looking ahead, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, ECB Minutes (Sep), Eurogroup Meeting, Banxico Minutes, Speakers including, ECB’s Lane, BoC’s Rogers, Fed Chair Powell, Bowman, Barr & Kashkari, Supply from US, Earnings from Delta Air & PepsiCo.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk