US Market Open: DXY flat but USTs firmer, Timiraos in focus into US data

European bourses are entirely in the red, with the DAX 40 slightly underperforming as Mercedes Benz cuts guidance; US futures are modestly lowerDollar is flat, JPY underperforms after the BoJ kept rates unchanged (as expected), but with Ueda striking a dovish tone at his press conferenceBonds are slightly bid, taking impetus from the BoJ announcement; Gilts initially underperformed vs peers after hotter-than-expected UK Retail SalesCrude is slightly subdued, XAU prints record highs again and base metals are generally strongerLooking ahead, Canadian Producer Prices, Retail Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, Quad Witching, Comments from BoC’s Macklem, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Harker & BowmanRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly gained following the rally stateside where the S&P 500 and the Dow surged to fresh record highs as the dust settled after the Fed over-delivered in its first rate cut in four years and US data topped forecasts.BoJ kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected with the decision made by unanimous vote, with no fireworks; USD/JPY was choppy before heading marginally lower, and 10-year JGBs were eventually subdued.PBoC maintained LPRs at their current levels as expected; Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed whilst the Yuan was firmer overnight despite reports of Chinese major state-owned banks seen buying dollars.European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 2.2% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, Canadian Producer Prices, Retail Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, Quad Witching, Comments from Norges Bank's Longva & Bache, BoE’s Mann, BoC’s Macklem, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Harker & Bowman.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European equities opened on a very strong footing and remain at elevated levels; US futures are bid, with the RTY outperforming post-FedDollar continues to sink, the typical haven currencies JPY & CHF lags, whilst Antipodeans outperform; the AUD also benefits from the region’s jobs reportBonds are incrementally lower (but off worst levels), Gilts remain steady ahead of the BoE policy announcementCrude benefits from the softer Dollar and risk-tone; XAU and base metals also in the greenLooking ahead, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, BoE, SARB & CBRT Policy Announcements, BoE Agents Summary of Business Conditions (Q3), Comments from BoC’s Vincent.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Fed delivered a 50bps rate cut and the dot plot suggested a further 50bps of reductions this year.US indices finished marginally lower and yields higher with Powell stating that markets should not assume 50bps is the new pace.European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +1.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% on Wednesday.DXY was seen lower post-FOMC decision before recouping lost ground during the press conference. JPY lags across the majors.Looking ahead, highlights include US Philly Fed Index, BoE, Norges, SARB & CBRT Policy Announcement, BoE Agents Summary of Business Conditions (Q3), Comments from ECB’s Schnabel, Norges Bank's Bache & BoC’s Vincent, Supply from Spain, France & USRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are slightly lower whilst US futures see very modest gains ahead of the FOMC announcementDollar is slightly softer, Kiwi outperforms, with JPY also strongerBonds are at lows, Gilts underperform following the region’s UK inflation report which saw Services & Core Y/Y print above expectationsCrude resides near lows and took another leg lower amid reports that Russia could hold off oil export cuts, XAU/base metals gainLooking ahead, US Building Permits, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes, Earnings from General Mills.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly rangebound with participants lacking conviction heading into the crucial Fed policy decision.European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Tuesday.DXY is lingering below the 101 mark, JPY is the clear outperformer across the majors with FX otherwise contained.Market pricing assigns a 65% chance of a 50bps Fed cut and a 35% possibility of a 25bps move, according to Refinitiv.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ HICP (Final), US Building Permits, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes, Supply from UK & GermanyRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European equities are firmer across the board, with Retail outperforming; US futures gain, the NQ outperforms attempting to pare back the prior day’s lossesDollar is flat, EUR edged off best levels in reaction to poor ZEW dataBonds are firmer as markets digest another Timiraos piece, which further highlighted that the Fed has doubts regarding the magnitude of a cutCrude has given back early morning strength and is now slightly lower, XAU dips whilst base metals are mixedLooking ahead, US Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, US Industrial Production, Business Inventories, NZ Current Account, Comments from Fed’s Logan & BoC’s Rogers, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped as participants continued to second-guess the magnitude of the looming Fed rate cut, while markets in Mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea remained closed for holidays.Money markets now price in a 67% probability of a 50bps Fed rate cut on Wednesday vs the 48% probability seen on Friday, via Reuters.US and Japan are nearing a deal to curb chip technology exports to China, according to FT.European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 0.3% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include German ZEW Sentiment, US Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, US Industrial Production, Business Inventories, NZ Current Account, Comments from ECB’s Elderson, Fed’s Logan & BoC’s Rogers, Supply from the UK & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European equities are mixed/flat, US equity futures edge slightly higher, though the RTY +0.8% outperformsDollar continues to edge lower as markets weigh up the magnitude of the looming Fed cut, G10s gain vs the Dollar, USD/JPY slips below 140After last week's late dovish Fed repricing, odds of a 50bps cut sit at 59% vs. 41% chance of a 25bps reduction.Bonds are incrementally firmer but with trade rangebound awaiting speak from ECB’s LaneCrude is slightly firmer benefiting from the softer Dollar, XAU and base metals gainLooking ahead, NY Fed Manufacturing, Canadian Manufacturing Sales, Comments from ECB’s LaneRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed amid the holiday-thinned conditions and as participants braced for this week's central bank announcements including from the FOMC, BoE and BoJ.Chinese house prices further deteriorated, while the latest Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales also disappointed.After last week's late dovish Fed repricing, odds of a 50bps cut sit at 59% vs. 41% chance of a 25bps reduction.European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.6% on Friday.DXY is on the backfoot and back below the 101 mark, EUR/USD sits around the 1.11 level, JPY is the biggest gainer vs. the USD.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Labour Costs/Wages, NY Fed Manufacturing, Canadian Manufacturing Sales, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, Comments from ECB’s de Guindos & Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk