US Market Open: Constructive risk environment focusing on tariff extension to August 1st; AUD outperforms on unexpected hold

European bourses began with modest gains and have gradually increased, largely led by reports of Chinese housing support.US futures are contained as newsflow has been limited, ex-China, since the overnight tariff developments.DXY is marginally firmer but well within Wednesday's band, G10s flat aside from Antipodeans benefiting from metals action and China support; BRL lags on 50% tariffsFixed benchmarks have been gradually drifting from overnight highs, now essentially flatBase metals glean on reports of Chinese stimulus, precious peers also firmer though action has been more gradualLooking ahead, highlights include US Weekly Claims, Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans, Speakers including Fed’s Musalem, Waller & Daly, BoE’s Breeden, Supply from the US. Earnings from Delta & Conagra Brands.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced tariff rates for seven countries and later announced a 50% tariff for Brazil; President Trump also announced the US is to impose a 50% tariff on copper, effective August 1st.The EU is discussing car import quotas and export credits with the US in trade talks, according to sources cited by Reuters.A muted reaction was seen across markets following the FOMC minutes; FOMC Minutes stated that most saw some reduction in the Fed funds rate this year as appropriate.European equity futures indicate a mildly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.4% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI final, Norwegian CPI, Swedish GDP, US Weekly Claims, Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans, OPEC WOO, Speakers including Fed’s Musalem, Waller & Daly, ECB’s Cipollone & BoE’s Breeden, Supply from US, Earnings from Delta & Conagra Brands.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump flagged the release of at least 7 tariff letters today. Reports that the EU is closing in on a temporary "framework" agreement, via FT.European bourses began modestly firmer and have been grinding higher since, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; German autos bid on trade nuances, Basic Resources hit by non-US copper performance, Media lags after WPPStateside, futures are in the green and directionally in-fitting with Europe but gains are much more muted, ES +0.2%; updates around AAPL, NVDA, AMZN in focusUSD steady with G10s mixed but essentially flat. RBNZ as expected, no significant NZD move.Fixed benchmarks have a modest upward bias, though they remain markedly lower on the week; today's action in Europe is a retracement of Tuesday's supply-induced pressure rather than a pronounced move higher.Crude has an upward bias, specifics light. XAU softer. Front-running of US copper into potential tariffs has widened the Comex-LME arbitrage to over USD 2,000/t.Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes, Speakers include ECBʼs Lane, Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from the US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside where tariff updates remained in focus.US President Trump said he will announce something on pharmaceuticals very soon and will be announcing semiconductor tariffs, believes the copper tariff will be 50%.President Trump said the US is probably two days off from sending the EU a letter, which means a deal.European equity futures indicate a slightly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.6% on Tuesday.DXY is a touch higher with the USD mixed vs. peers (stronger vs. havens, weaker vs. antipodeans).RBNZ maintained the OCR at 3.25%, as expected, hinted at future rate cuts ahead.Looking ahead, highlights include BoE FSR, FOMC Minutes, RBA’s Hunter, BoE Governor Bailey, ECB’s Lane, Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said the August 1st tariff deadline is firm, but he is open to other ideas.European bourses began on the front foot, digesting the deadline pushback and reports that the US offered the EU a 10% tariff deal, via Politico.Since, benchmarks have eased off best with the tone now mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%. Stateside, non-tariff updates limited, ES +0.1%.DXY is giving back some of Monday's gains. AUD outperforms on a surprise RBA hold. EUR and GBP both firmer, but off best.Fixed benchmarks hit by the tariff deadline extension and a packed supply docket.Crude in the red but within familiar ranges, pressure intensified on reports that Doha talks recommenced. Metals follow the risk tone.Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed SCE, NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, ECB's Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from the USClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and Thailand, with tariff rates ranging between 25%-40%.Trump also warned against retaliation, although he also delayed the tariff deadline to August 1st - leaving room for negotiation.APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains as participants digested the Trump letters; Wall Street closed lower.RBA defied the broad consensus and instead decided to pause on rates through a 6-3 majority vote.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% on Monday.DXY is steady, AUD is the clear outperformer across the majors, USD/JPY sits on a 146 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade, US NY Fed SCE, NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, RBA's Bullock, ECB's Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from Netherlands, UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said 12 nations will receive tariff letters on Monday (deliveries to start from 17:00BST). Also, threatened 10% additional tariff for those aligned with BRICS.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said letters to trading partners will notify them that if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels; tariffs to take effect on August 1st.European bourses began the day with modest gains but action is tentative, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; ES -0.4% amid trade uncertainty, NQ -0.5% underperforms on TSLA -6.5%USD firmer vs all major peers. Antipodeans hit by the tone, JPY on the USD strength and soft domestic wage data, Cable below 1.36 and EUR/USD at a 1.1723 lowFixed benchmarks contained and experiencing two-way trade into the tariff letters, USTs near-enough unchanged, Bunds lower but off worstCrude began on the backfoot after OPEC+ eight agreeing to increase output by 548k (prev. 411k); since, benchmarks off lows and modestly firmer. Metals dented by the USD.Looking ahead, highlights include supply from the UK (BoE Gilt sale), US President Trump meeting Israeli PM Netanyahu & US tariff lettersClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region cautious ahead of upcoming key events, including central bank announcements and the July 9th tariff deadline.US President Trump said 12 nations will receive tariff letters on Monday (deliveries to start from 17:00BST). Also, threatened 10% additional tariff for those aligned with BRICS.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said letters to trading partners will notify them that if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels; tariffs to take effect on August 1st.European equity futures indicate a quiet open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 1% on Friday.DXY has kicked the week off on the front foot, antipodeans lag alongside the soft risk tone, EUR/USD remains on a 1.17 handle.Crude pressured after OPEC+ accelerated its output hike with an increase of 548k bpd for August (prev. 411k bpd increase).Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, Swedish CPIF (Flash), EZ Sentix & Retail Sales, BoE Gilt sale operation.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they will start sending letters regarding tariffs and 10 to 12 countries will get a letter on Friday, with tariffs to range from 10%-20% and 60%-70%, while countries are to start paying the new tariff on August 1st.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said to expect a flurry of trade deals before July 9th and expect to see about 100 countries get a minimum 10% reciprocal tariff, while he added they are going to be announcing several deals.US House voted 218-214 to pass President Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending bill, sending it to President Trump to sign into law, while the White House said Trump will sign the bill on Friday at 17:00EDT/20:00BST.APAC stocks traded mixed with gains limited; European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures lower by 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German & French Industrial Orders, EZ, UK Construction PMI, Italian Retail Sales, EZ Producer Prices, Speakers include BoE's Taylor, ECB President Lagarde & Elderson, US Independence Day Holiday.Desk Schedule: The desk will shut for the week at 18:00BST/13:00EDT amid the US market holiday.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses began the session firmer, but that strength has waned to more mixed trade; US futures similar into a packed agendaDXY broadly flat intraday but with a marginal upward bias. G10s contained, but generally softer. GBP outperforms after Wednesday's post-PMQs pressure.Similarly, Gilts lead fixed income. USTs await data. Bunds unreactive to Final PMIs.Crude benchmarks softer, despite limited newsflow. Metals mixed, XAU off highs and fading as the USD picks up slightly.US Reconciliation Bill passed the Rules vote, awaiting full vote; timing unclear, dependent on the Minority Leader, but should be in the next hour(s).Looking ahead, highlights include US PMIs (Final), US NFP, International Trade, Jobless Claims, ISM Services, Canadian Trade, ECB Minutes. Speakers include Fedʼs BosticDesk Schedule: On Thursday 3rd July, the desk will shut at 18:15BST/13:15EDT due to the US Independence Day. The service will resume on Thursday 3rd July for the beginning of Asia-Pac coverage at 22:00BST/17:00EDT.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk