Europe Market Open: Trump threatens 35% tariff on Japan; US Senate passes Trump tax bill

US President Trump said they will start sending letters regarding tariffs and 10 to 12 countries will get a letter on Friday, with tariffs to range from 10%-20% and 60%-70%, while countries are to start paying the new tariff on August 1st.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said to expect a flurry of trade deals before July 9th and expect to see about 100 countries get a minimum 10% reciprocal tariff, while he added they are going to be announcing several deals.US House voted 218-214 to pass President Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending bill, sending it to President Trump to sign into law, while the White House said Trump will sign the bill on Friday at 17:00EDT/20:00BST.APAC stocks traded mixed with gains limited; European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures lower by 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German & French Industrial Orders, EZ, UK Construction PMI, Italian Retail Sales, EZ Producer Prices, Speakers include BoE's Taylor, ECB President Lagarde & Elderson, US Independence Day Holiday.Desk Schedule: The desk will shut for the week at 18:00BST/13:00EDT amid the US market holiday.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses began the session firmer, but that strength has waned to more mixed trade; US futures similar into a packed agendaDXY broadly flat intraday but with a marginal upward bias. G10s contained, but generally softer. GBP outperforms after Wednesday's post-PMQs pressure.Similarly, Gilts lead fixed income. USTs await data. Bunds unreactive to Final PMIs.Crude benchmarks softer, despite limited newsflow. Metals mixed, XAU off highs and fading as the USD picks up slightly.US Reconciliation Bill passed the Rules vote, awaiting full vote; timing unclear, dependent on the Minority Leader, but should be in the next hour(s).Looking ahead, highlights include US PMIs (Final), US NFP, International Trade, Jobless Claims, ISM Services, Canadian Trade, ECB Minutes. Speakers include Fedʼs BosticDesk Schedule: On Thursday 3rd July, the desk will shut at 18:15BST/13:15EDT due to the US Independence Day. The service will resume on Thursday 3rd July for the beginning of Asia-Pac coverage at 22:00BST/17:00EDT.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks failed to sustain the mostly constructive handover from Wall St counterparts with sentiment in the region cautious as participants braced for the key US jobs data and digested Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMIs.Siemens confirmed it has been notified by the US Commerce Department that export control restrictions on EDA software and technology to customers in China are no longer in place.US House Republicans were reportedly stuck and didn't have the votes for the rule, while Republicans had told members to go back into their offices and a vote on the rule didn’t look imminent, according to Punchbowl.UK PM Starmer said Rachel Reeves will be the Chancellor for years to come and will be the Chancellor at the next election.European equity futures indicate a marginally positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.7% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US PMIs (Final), Swiss CPI, US NFP, International Trade, Jobless Claims, ISM Services, Canadian Trade, ECB Minutes & BoE DMP, Speakers including BoJ’s Takata & Fed’s Bostic, Supply from Spain & US Refunding Announcement.Desk Schedule: On Thursday 3rd July, the desk will shut at 18:15BST/13:15EDT due to the US Independence Day. The service will resume on Thursday 3rd July for the beginning of Asia-Pac coverage at 22:00BST/17:00EDT. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses in the green, shrugging off a mixed APAC lead. US futures post modest gains, RTY outperformsUSD attempts to atone for recent pressure. DXY eyes 97.00 to the upside, JPY lags, EUR and GBP both hitFixed in the red, Gilts lag after the UK Welfare Reform u-turn. USTs await data and fiscal updatesUS House set to convene at 09:00ET, Punchbowl reports several sources expressing alarm at the number of no's from lawmakersCrude in the green and despite light newsflow continue to climb, metals mixedLooking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs, ADP National Employment, Canadian Manufacturing PMI, NBP Policy Announcement, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed following a similar handover from the US where participants digested data, trade commentary and a slew of central bank rhetoric.US President Trump said he doubts the US will have a deal with Japan but will possibly have an agreement with India.US Senate narrowly passed President Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill; House to vote by Thursday "at the latest".European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Tuesday.DXY is modestly firmer, JPY narrowly lags on negative trade headlines, EUR/USD is lingering just below the 1.18 mark.Looking ahead, highlights include EU & Italian Unemployment Rate, US Challenger Layoffs, ADP National Employment, Canadian Manufacturing PMI, NBP Policy Announcement, ECB’s de Guindos, Cipollone, Lane, Lagarde & BoE's Taylor, Supply from UK & Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Senate vote-a-rama is still ongoing, Thune suggests we are "getting to the end", unclear if he has enough votesEU reportedly wants immediate relief in any US deal, said to be accepting universal tariffs but is seeking key exemptionsRisk tone began firmer after strong Chinese data; thereafter, deteriorated into and through the European morningUS futures in the red, ES -0.2%, awaiting updates on the Reconciliation Bill, Chair Powell and a packed data docketUSD continues to fall. JPY and CHF lead, fixed bid, XAU higher.EUR and EGBs unreactive to as-expected flash HICP and numerous ECB speakers who have focused on EUR strengthLooking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing PMIs, ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS Job Openings, ECB Central Banking Forum, Speakers including ECB’s Schnabel & Lagarde, Fed’s Powell, BoJ's Ueda, BoE’s Bailey & BoK's Rhee. Earnings from Constellation Brands. Holiday closures in Hong Kong & Canada.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the new quarter mostly higher, albeit with gains tentative; Wall Street closed higher.The Senate vote-a-rama process is ongoing before a final version is sent back to the House to approve the bill, before then sending it to Trump's desk.EU is to accept Trump’s universal tariff but seeks key exemptions and wants the US to commit to lower rates on key sectors, according to Bloomberg.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Monday.DXY is steady, EUR/USD briefly ventured onto a 1.18 handle, USD/JPY marginally extended on its downside.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Manufacturing PMIs, German Unemployment Rate, EZ HICP, US ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS Job Openings, ECB SCE & Central Banking Forum, Speakers include ECB’s de Guindos, Elderson, Schnabel & Lagarde, Fed’s Powell, BoJ's Ueda, BoE’s Bailey & BoK's Rhee.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A firmer start to the week Stateside, ES +0.4%, as markets focus on the progress of Trump's Bill; however, Europe is more contained, Stoxx 600 +0.1%, as the reciprocal deadline nears.US Senate voted to begin debating the Reconciliation Bill; vote-a-rama not expected to start until 09:00ET today, as such the House will not vote until Wednesday at the earliest, via Fox's Pergram.DXY has kicked off week-, month-, quarter- & H1-end on a mildly negative footing, though the magnitude of this has dissipated across the morning. EUR contained, JPY outperforms, GBP softer.Fixed benchmarks were contained overnight before EGBs picked up on numerous German data points.Crude benchmarks are in the red but only modestly so, updates continue on the geopolitical front, with Trump saying he is not offering Iran anything.Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI, Speakers including ECB’s de Guindos & Lagarde, Fed’s Bostic & Goolsbee.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mostly in the green following last Friday's record highs on Wall St; participants digested a slew of data including mixed Chinese PMIs.US and Canada agreed to resume negotiations with a view towards reaching a deal by July 21st after Canada rescinded the Digital Services Tax.The Senate is set to vote on Trump's sweeping tax cut and spending bill on Monday following a 51-49 vote to open the debate on the bill.European equity futures indicate a positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.6% on Friday.DXY has kicked the week off on the backfoot but holding above Friday's low, JPY outperforms, EUR/USD sits on a 1.17 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Q1 final), German Import Prices, Retail Sales & CPI, Italian CPI, US Chicago PMI, ECB’s de Guindos & Lagarde, Fed’s Bostic & Goolsbee.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that several deals will be announced in the coming week, with the Europe deal expected at the end.Punchbowl reports that Republican Senators say voting on the Reconciliation Bill will not begin until Saturday at the absolute earliest.European bourses benefit from a flurry of US-EU trade updates, US futures gain modestly into PCE.DXY extends its losing streak for a fifth session as PCE looms.USTs are under modest pressure with Bunds also hampered following French/Spanish inflation figures.Crude is firmer & XAU slips given the risk tone but base metals fail to benefit.Looking ahead, US PCE, UoM Survey Final, Fed’s Williams, Hammack; ECB's Cipollone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk