Europe Market Open: Fed pricing shifts & Dollar strengthens as Powell strikes hawkish tone

APAC stocks traded with a predominantly positive bias albeit with gains capped following the uninspiring handover from Wall Street and as participants digested recent earnings releases and mixed Chinese activity data.Fed Chair Powell struck a hawkish tone as he stated that the economy is not sending signals that the Fed needs to be in a hurry to lower interest rates; money markets now price in around a 60% chance of a 25bps cut in December versus 80% pre-Powell.Chinese Industrial Production disappointed but Retail Sales topped forecasts, while Chinese Home Prices showed a steeper Y/Y drop although the M/M decline moderated.Israeli forces push deeper into Lebanon in a widening war campaign, while the expanding ground operation risks protracted conflict but could build leverage for ceasefire talks, according to WSJ.European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.5% after the cash market closed higher by 2.0% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price, UK GDP, Services, US Retail Sales, Capacity Utilisation, BoC SLOS, Speakers include ECB’s Lane & Cipollone, Fed's Collins & Williams, Earnings from BAE Systems & Alibaba.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses gain with clear outperformance in the Euro Stoxx 50, lifted by gains in ASML +5.2% after it reiterated its 2030 sales outlook; US futures are modestly firmer whilst the RTY outperforms.Dollar continues to extend gains having surpassed 107.00, USD/JPY tops 156.00.Bonds are subdued with slight underperformance in Gilts ahead of Fed Chair Powell and BoE Governor Bailey.Metals succumb to the Dollar strength while crude trades choppily in a tight range.Looking ahead, US Initial Jobless Claims, US PPI, Japanese GDP, ECB Minutes. Speakers include ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel, Fed’s Powell, Barkin, Williams & Kugler, BoE's Bailey & Mann. Supply from the US. Earnings from Disney, Brookfield, Applied Materials & Advanced Auto Parts.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the indecisive lead from Wall Street. DXY extended above 106.50 and 10yr UST futures were lacklustre, while there was a lack of fresh major catalysts.Fed's Musalem (2025 voter) noted recent information suggests that the risk of inflation moving higher has risen and risks to the job market remain unchanged or have fallen.Fed's Schmid (2025 voter) said "it remains to be seen" how much more the Fed will cut rates and where they may settle.China reportedly armed itself for a potential trade war with Trump as Beijing has enacted sweeping laws since the US President-elect’s first term that would allow it to retaliate if threatened, according to FT.Israel is reportedly preparing a Lebanon ceasefire plan as a "gift" to US President-elect Trump, according to WaPo.Looking ahead, highlights include EU Jobs & GDP, US Initial Jobless Claims, US PPI (Final), Japanese GDP, IEA OMR, ECB Minutes. Speakers include ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos & Schnabel, Fed’s Powell, Barkin, Williams & Kugler, BoE's Bailey & Mann. Supply from the US. Earnings from Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Merck, Swiss Re, Burberry, Disney, Brookfield, Applied Materials, JD.Com & Advanced Auto Parts.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are mostly on a modestly firmer footing; US futures are incrementally lower ahead of US CPI.Dollar is flat, JPY marginally underperforms with USD/JPY briefly topping 155.00.USTs are incrementally firmer and ultimately in stasis ahead of US CPI; Gilts continued to underperform.Crude and precious metals gain but base metals remain subdued.Looking ahead, US CPI, EIA STEO, Speakers including Fed’s Logan, Williams, Musalem, Kashkari, Schmid & RBA’s Bullock. Earnings from Cisco.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the negative lead from the US alongside higher yields.European equity futures are indicative of a lower cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 2.3% on Tuesday.DXY remains above the 106 mark, USD/JPY has just crossed above the 155 level, EUR/USD sits just above 1.06.Bunds are lower, crude is marginally firmer, BTC has pulled back from its record high.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, EIA STEO, Speakers including Fed’s Logan, Williams, Musalem, Kashkari, Schmid & RBA’s Bullock, Supply from UK, Italy & Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equities are on the backfoot; the RTY underperforms, paring some of the Trump-induced strength in the prior session.Dollar continues to advance higher, GBP on the backfoot following mixed jobs data which saw an uptick in unemployment but wages remain sticky.Bonds are mixed, USTs are flat ahead of several Fed speakers whilst Bunds are bid after poor German ZEW figures.Crude holds an upward bias, XAU/base metals are pressured by the stronger Dollar; BTC pulls back from a USD 89k handle.Looking ahead, NY Fed SCE, OPEC MOMR, Speakers including ECB’s Cipollone, Fed’s Waller, Barkin, Kashkari & Harker.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed and failed to sustain the momentum from Wall St.European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.9% after the cash market closed higher by 1.1% on Monday.DXY remains on the front foot, EUR/USD is stuck on a 1.06 handle, USD/JPY briefly moved above the 154 mark.Bitcoin was choppy overnight after the prior day's surge which lifted prices above the USD 89k level for the first time.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs, EZ/German ZEW, NY Fed SCE, OPEC MOMR, Speakers including BoE’s Pill, ECB’s Rehn, Cipollone, Fed’s Waller, Barkin, Kashkari & Harker, Supply from Netherlands, UK & Germany.Earnings from Bayer, Brenntag, Infineon, Vodafone, AstraZeneca, Shopify, Home Depot, Tyson Foods, Spotify, Occidental Petroleum.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equities are entirely in the green, with a strong European morning thus far; the RTY outperforms.DXY is on a firmer footing with the Trump Trade still in action, JPY underperforms following the BoJ SOO which highlighted the lack of urgency to hike.Bonds are mixed, with Bunds firmer amid suggestions that Chancellor Scholz could bring forward a vote of no-confidence; Treasury cash trade is closed on account of US Veterans Day.Crude slips on comments by Hezbollah that there are negotiations to stop the war; XAU/base metals are hampered by the stronger Dollar and softer-than-expected Chinese inflation metrics overnight.Looking ahead, No Tier 1 events. As a reminder, today is US Veterans Day.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mostly subdued following the recent China fiscal stimulus disappointment and softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data.European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 1.0% on Friday.German Chancellor Scholz said he wouldn't have a problem with a vote of confidence before Christmas.DXY is steady and just above the 105 mark, EUR/USD is little changed on a 1.07 handle, JPY lags its major peers.Looking ahead, today sees a lack of tier 1 highlights. Note, today is Veterans Day in the US. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit after China’s NPC press conference disappointed markets; US futures remain flat.DXY is slightly firmer, with the JPY strong whilst the Antipodeans lag given the lack of fresh stimulus measures from China.Bonds are on a firmer footing, with modest outperformance in Gilts and as USTs await Fed speak from Bowman & Musalem.Crude oil, XAU and base metals are all on the backfoot, following the underwhelming Chinese NPC press conference.Looking ahead, Canadian Jobs, US UoM Inflation Prelim/Sentiment, Speakers including BoC's Gravelle, Fed's Bowman & Musalem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk