Europe Market Open: Europe set for a modestly firmer open as Middle-East tensions cool, ahead of NATO summit

A firmer start to the week Stateside, ES +0.4%, as markets focus on the progress of Trump's Bill; however, Europe is more contained, Stoxx 600 +0.1%, as the reciprocal deadline nears.US Senate voted to begin debating the Reconciliation Bill; vote-a-rama not expected to start until 09:00ET today, as such the House will not vote until Wednesday at the earliest, via Fox's Pergram.DXY has kicked off week-, month-, quarter- & H1-end on a mildly negative footing, though the magnitude of this has dissipated across the morning. EUR contained, JPY outperforms, GBP softer.Fixed benchmarks were contained overnight before EGBs picked up on numerous German data points.Crude benchmarks are in the red but only modestly so, updates continue on the geopolitical front, with Trump saying he is not offering Iran anything.Looking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI, Speakers including ECB’s de Guindos & Lagarde, Fed’s Bostic & Goolsbee.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mostly in the green following last Friday's record highs on Wall St; participants digested a slew of data including mixed Chinese PMIs.US and Canada agreed to resume negotiations with a view towards reaching a deal by July 21st after Canada rescinded the Digital Services Tax.The Senate is set to vote on Trump's sweeping tax cut and spending bill on Monday following a 51-49 vote to open the debate on the bill.European equity futures indicate a positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.6% on Friday.DXY has kicked the week off on the backfoot but holding above Friday's low, JPY outperforms, EUR/USD sits on a 1.17 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Q1 final), German Import Prices, Retail Sales & CPI, Italian CPI, US Chicago PMI, ECB’s de Guindos & Lagarde, Fed’s Bostic & Goolsbee.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that several deals will be announced in the coming week, with the Europe deal expected at the end.Punchbowl reports that Republican Senators say voting on the Reconciliation Bill will not begin until Saturday at the absolute earliest.European bourses benefit from a flurry of US-EU trade updates, US futures gain modestly into PCE.DXY extends its losing streak for a fifth session as PCE looms.USTs are under modest pressure with Bunds also hampered following French/Spanish inflation figures.Crude is firmer & XAU slips given the risk tone but base metals fail to benefit.Looking ahead, US PCE, UoM Survey Final, Fed’s Williams, Hammack; ECB's Cipollone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he just signed a deal with China on Wednesday; it was later clarified that the US and China have agreed to an additional understanding to implement the Geneva agreement.US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that several deals will be announced in the coming week, with the Europe deal expected at the end.Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said Tehran is assessing whether diplomacy with the US is in its interest, adding that there is currently no understanding for renewed talks with the US.APAC stocks traded mostly firmer for a bulk of the session following gains on Wall Street, before waning off best levels to trade mixed.European equity futures are indicative of a firmer open - catching up to some of the late Wall Street gains - with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after cash closed -0.2% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include French CPI, Spanish HICP, Retail Sales, EZ Business Climate, Italian Industrial Sales, US PCE, UoM Survey Final, Fed’s Williams, Hammack; ECB's Cipollone, and Supply from Italy. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump may accelerate the announcement of a successor to Fed Chair Powell, according to WSJ sources.Chinese state planner official said with policy implementation and introduction, "we are confident and capable of minimising the adverse impacts from external shock", according to Reuters.Micron (MU) said there may have been some tariff-related pull-ins by certain customers; customer inventory levels have been healthy overall across end markets.European & US indices trade modestly higher, ES +0.3%; Shell has “no intention” of making an offer for BP.DXY hammered amid reports Trump is to name a Powell successor early; a report which has also weighed on US yields.Crude trims initial gains, metals glean strength from the dovish Fed source report, USD weakness and Chinese commentary.Looking ahead, US Durable Goods, GDP Final (Q1), PCE (Q1), Jobless Claims, National Activity Index, Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Banxico Policy Announcement, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, Lagarde; BoE’s Bailey; Fed’s Daly, Barkin, Hammack, Barr, Kashkari, Supply from the US, Earnings from Walgreens, Nike.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed in choppy fashion following a similar session on Wall Street, with overnight newsflow relatively light as Israel and Iran seemingly continued to observe the ceasefire.US President Trump may accelerate the announcement of a successor to Fed Chair Powell, according to WSJ sources.Chinese state planner official said with policy implementation and introduction, "we are confident and capable of minimising the adverse impacts from external shock", according to Reuters.HKMA bought HKD 9.42bln as the Hong Kong dollar hit the weak end of its trading range, marking the first such intervention since 2023 to defend the currency peg.Micron (MU) said there may have been some tariff-related pull-ins by certain customers; customer inventory levels have been healthy overall across end markets.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Sentiment, US Durable Goods, GDP Final (Q1), PCE (Q1), Jobless Claims, National Activity Index, Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Banxico Policy Announcement, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, Lagarde; BoE’s Bailey, Breeden; Fed’s Daly, Barkin, Hammack, Barr, Kashkari, supply from US, Earnings from Walgreens, Nike, H&M.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Fox's Gasparino posted that Team Trump said it was close to announcing a handful of trade deals. The major ones the White House claimed progress on involved Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.European bourses are mixed in quiet newsflow whilst US futures hold around the unchanged mark.USD looks to claw back recent losses. EUR/USD pulls back from multi-year high.USTs await Powell part 2 and details from the NATO summit; Bunds are pressured and currently towards session lows.Crude bid but still at the trough of recent parameters, metals marginally firmer.Looking ahead, US Building Permits, CNB Policy Announcement; NATO Summit, Fed SLR meeting, BoE’s Lombardelli; Fed's Powell; US President Trump, Supply from the US, and Earnings from General Mills, Paychex, Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded stronger following the firm lead from Wall Street, with gains capped as traders were cautious amid the fragility of the Israel-Iran ceasefire.Geopolitical newsflow was relatively light in APAC hours, with no hostile incidents seen between Israel and Iran; “There have been no [US] sanctions lifted on Iran,” said Fox Business' Lawrence, in reference to President Trump's post suggesting China could continue to buy oil from Iran.Fed Chair Powell said they would expect to see meaningful inflation effects from tariffs in June, July, and August. He added that if those effects failed to materialise, it could lead to an earlier rate cut.BoJ board member Tamura said that if upward price risks heightened, the BoJ could face a situation where it would need to raise rates decisively, even if uncertainty remained high, adding that he does not see 0.5% as a barrier for BoJ rate hikes.Fox's Gasparino posted that Team Trump said it was close to announcing a handful of trade deals. The major ones the White House claimed progress on involved Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits, CNB Policy Announcement; NATO Summit, Fed SLR meeting, BoE’s Lombardelli, Pill, Greene; Fed's Powell; US President Trump, Supply from Italy, UK, US, and Earnings from General Mills, Paychex, Micron, Babcock.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Sentiment bolstered after US President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, effective 05:00 BST / 00:00 EDT.Though Israel claimed Iran had launched ballistic missiles and violated the agreement, which Iran has denied.USD softer as geopolitical premium recedes, attention now turns to Fed Chair Powell who testifies before the House.Bonds hold a bearish bias given latest Iran-Israel ceasefire; USTs are lower by a handful of ticks whilst Bunds are hit on updates via the German Finance Ministry.Crude clipped by the ceasefire, XAU loses its shine, base metals find a floor.Looking ahead, Canadian Inflation, US Consumer Confidence, NZ Trade, NATO Summit, NBH Policy Announcement, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden, Pill, Breeden; ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos, Lane; Fed’s Powell, Hammack, Williams, Collins, Barr, Supply from the US, Earnings from FedEx, Carnival.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Risk was supported on Wall Street following Iran's "symbolic" strike on a US base in Qatar—de-escalatory in nature, given the clear effort to minimise casualties and collateral damage.Sentiment was further bolstered at the resumption of futures trading after US President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, effective 05:00 BST.Israeli strikes were continuous as markets headed into Iran's proposed ceasefire time (01:30 BST) vs Trump's guided time (05:00 BST).Crude oil tumbled 9% on Monday, with losses of almost 3% seen heading into the European open.European equity futures are indicative of a positive open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +1.2% after cash closed -0.2% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, Canadian Inflation, US Consumer Confidence, NZ Trade, NBH Policy Announcement, BoE’s Bailey, Greene, Ramsden, Pill, Breeden; ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos, Lane; Fed’s Powell, Hammack, Williams, Collins, Barr, NATO summit, Supply from UK, Germany, US, Earnings from FedEx, Carnival.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk